Money Making Monday: Week 4

So far, I'm making money, but it's a slow grind. There will certainly be a week where I make a big splash. Still, I'm up so far.

YTD: 19-16 +1.4u

Kentucky +7 @ Arkansas

Kentucky will be able to throw all over the Razorbacks, and the Hogs will run all over the Cats. The O/U is out yet, but when it is, I'm hitting the over. Arkansas's defense isn't any better than Louisville's, and while their offense as a whole isn't as good as the Cards', their run game is out of this world. I think Kentucky with a senior QB can go into Fayetteville and not get rattled. A touchdown is a big gap when I think the visiting Wildcats could win outright.

Georgia Tech -3 @ Virginia

Tashard Choice might be out for this game, but I still love the number. Virginia is a wretched team with a wretched offense. They only scored 22 on a bad North Carolina defense, and this Ramblin Wreck defense is for real. Honestly, if Georgia Tech only scores 14 points, they should cover. GT allowed over 400 yards passing to Boston College, but BC has one of the best QBs in the country with a dynamic offense. BC still only scored 24. I like the under in this game, whenever it comes out.

Connecticut @ Pittsburgh -7

This has moved to 8.5, so I feel good about the bet. Pitt's defense has looked really good so far, which is something they didn't have last season. Connecticut barely beat Temple, and we saw with Navy that if you struggle with Temple, you end up being pretty average. UConn loves to run the ball, and Pitt held a very good running Spartan team to 2.8 yards per carry. Hell, UConn ran for only 3.2 ypc against Temple. Blowout alert.

San Jose State +1 @ Utah State

This has gone to +3.5, so I'm not feeling too confident. I guess I'm expecting SJSU to play like they did last season. Utah State is awful, but not as awful as I anticipated. Still, this is essentially a pick at the number I got, and I think SJSU is good enough to win 6/10 times. Isn't it weird to have a write up on a game like this?

Purdue -11.5 @ Minnesota

This moved to -14 within minutes, so I feel damn good about my number. Minnesota is absolutely awful defensively, and Purdue will put up 45+, maybe even 60. Whatever the O/U is, I'll be inclined to get the over. The Gophers are awful - gave up 42 to FAU! Jesus, they have given up OVER 30 points to every team they played - FAU, Miami (OH), and Bowling Green. Two MAC teams and a Sun Belt team. Ouch.

Arizona @ California -17

Revenge game for the Bears, and we saw what they did in the revenge game with Tennessee. Arizona was JUST beaten by New Mexico 29-27 on Saturday. Cal's offense, obviously, is on another level or 8 than UNM. Arizona's offense is still bad, but now inconsistently bad. Cal's defense is definitely a question, but I don't see them, with all the incentive to beat the hell out of Arizona, letting up. Arizona won on a fluke last year, and cost Cal the Pac 10 title. Cal rolls, I think.

Duke @ Navy -10

I've been bitten betting on Navy so far, but this one seems like a good bet. Duke was completely demolished by UConn on September 1st, and UConn is the only team that runs close to as much as Navy. Navy's offense is a lot better than UConn's, so I ecpect Navy to rack up the rushing yards and keep the already awful Duke offense on the sideline. Yes, Duke won a game, but 10 points? C'mon!

Check link at left as usual for updated slate.

Money Making Monday - Week 3

Last week, I went 8-7, but it looks a lot better after the early games were 1-3.
Year to Date: 12-10 +1unit

TCU (-8) @ Air Force

TCU played Texas a lot closer than that final score indicated. It was 10-10 going into the 4th quarter! Air Force did beat Utah, but I think Utah is nowhere near as good as I anticipated. Also, go look at the last 2 games from these two teams. TCU has owned the Falcons. I hate road favorites, but I like this play. TCU's D will stifle that option.

Texas (-20) @ Central Florida

UCF alrighty bit me once this season when the upset NC State in Week 1. Still, this number seems like Vegas responding to the average fans overreacting to poor Texas play in the first 2 weeks. I think the Longhorns got some much needed confidence in the 4th quarter last week, and will beat a very below average Knights team. I only need a 3 touchdown win.

Ball State @ Navy (-5')

Really? Another line that seems too good to be true. Which means I'll get it wrong. Navy lost by 17 to Rutgers on national TV, but Ball State isn't Rutgers. Ball State is probably one of the 6 best teams in the MAC this year, MAYBE, but Navy beats up the stinkies pretty well. And Ball State is a stinky. Run run run all over them.

Ohio State (-4) @ Washington

Beautiful. Ohio State struggles with Akron, Washington beats Boise State, and we have this line. 4? If you combined the best players of Boise State and Syracuse, you wouldn't even touch the speed that Ohio State has. Washington beat an awful awful Syracuse team, and then beat a Boise State team that isn't the 2006 version. This Boise team is a 9-3 team, I think. This is too little of a line. I've been wrong on Washington for 2 weeks in a row, so take that for what it's worth.

Check the link on the left side for updates throughout the week.

Money Making Monday: Labor Day Holiday Edition

I'm back from Berkeley and still feeling a bit tired. When you travel to see your team lose, it's taxing on your emotions. I did find time last night to place some wagers for the week, and this week will be heavier than last week, I expect. Right now, four plays for you to read about.

Nebraska (-8) @ Wake Forest

It's no secret that I think the Deacons are going to have a losing record and finish 5th or 6th in their division. I told myself to fade this team early until the rest of the country caught up. Nebraska did beat a typically solid Nevada team, but that Wolfpack team played awful. The Huskers are better than the Deacs at almost every position, and the home field advantage is average for Wake. Lastly, Nebraska is better than Boston College by a few points, as well.

Kent State @ Kentucky (-13)

I've made a point to say that Kentucky could regress a bit this season, possibly into bowl-less land. However, as decent a mid-major as Kent is, Kentucky is going to rack up points in this one. I like the over, and I'll end up adding that, too. My only only worry is that Kentucky could be looking ahead to Louisville next week. Kent beat Iowa State last week, but the Cyclones are nowhere near dynamic on offense as the Wildcats.

Boise State (-3) @ Washington

You can find this at -2' at some sites, but not any that I have money at. Boise State is still a very good team, but aren't being touted as much as last season. Washington, who I think could still finish last in the Pac 10, looked very good (at least in comparison to their usual play) at Syracuse, but Boise State is like ... a stratosphere better than them. This one is a bit of a gut play, which is good. Last week, I passed on a lot of gut plays, and many of them would have made me money. I believe this line is a bit of a reaction to Washington playing their best game in years. Overreact much?

Alabama (-3) @ Vanderbilt

In sports betting, I'll snap a man's neck, then stab him in the thigh with a pen if he ever says a game is a "lock." That word is only used by touts who want to steal your money. No game is ever a lock (coughAPPYSTATEcough), and I'll never tell you I have a lock. Ever. However, I will say that sometimes I'm quite confident about a certain wager. Sometimes I lose those. This is one where my confidence level is really high. Fans still remember Alabama going 6-7, and Vegas knows it. Alabama is a different team, mostly because of Saban. Their attitude is different, which is more important than anything else. This game has been close the last few seasons, but I think the Tide wins by 10 or more.

Indiana (PK) @ Western Michigan

Air Force @ Utah (-7')

Miami @ Oklahoma U43

Southern Miss @ Tennessee O50

Kent State @ Kentucky O51

UAB @ Florida State U51'

Nevada @ Northwestern U53

Toledo (+3) @ Central Michigan

Buffalo (+3') @ Temple

Mississippi State (-6) @ Tulane
Check the link to the left for updated Week 2 cash monaaayyyys.

Updated Money Making

I added some more plays to this week, but they are just 2 totals. Here is the official card for the week, with 1 win already on UNLV.

Tennessee (+5.5) @ California

San Jose State @ Arizona State (-14.5)

Central Florida @ NC State (-7.5)

UNLV (-6.5) @ Utah State

Ole Miss @ Memphis (+3)

San Jose State @ Arizona State O49

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame U46

Money Making Monday

I'm back from the hell that is oral surgery, finally feeling like myself again, just in time for game week! I'll be traveling to Berkeley on Friday morning to see the Vols take on the Bears, so my weekend blogging this week will NOT be indicative of how other gamedays will go. Anyway, I've added some games to this week's card.

HUGE EDITOR'S EDIT: If you read this, do not play the UNLV line because I said so. I found out that UNLV QB Rocky Hinds could be out for the season, and it happened over a week ago. I ALWAYS do my research, except this time.

UNLV (-6') @ Utah State

UNLV was better than their 2-10 record last year, and they return 14 starters, including Rocky Hinds, who was good enough to be recruited and committed to USC. Steele has UNLV as a 14 point favorite, so that's a 7 1/2 point margin. Utah State looks to be one of the worst 10 teams in the nation, and they WERE as bad as their 1-11 record indicates. There is 1 worry here, though, and that's the fact that Utah State beat UNLV in Aggieland in 2005. Are the teams the same? Not even close, but it's something to remember.

Central Florida @ North Carolina State (-7')

I love the movement here. Started around NC State -9', but has moved my way. The Pack will be one of the more improved teams in the ACC, and will fight for bowl eligibility. NC State was on the absolute worst side of variance I've ever seen. -5 CGVR, -11 TO, and were actually ranked 7th in CAPP for me at 100.7. All this means a turnaround for the Wolfpack. Plus, I'm a huge fan of Coach O'Brian. UCF had a good season in 2005, but were awful in 2006. UCF lost by 45 at home to Pittsburgh last year, and I think this NC State team is better than that. Steele has NC State as a 14 point favorite, as well.

San Jose State @ Arizona State (-14')

Another line that moved my way, which can sometimes worry you. You hate to see that, but you love it. This is more of a gut play, as Steele has ASU favored by 17'. Still, I think the Sun Devils have way too many weapons on offense for the Spartans to have a chance. Their defense allowed 4.1 ypc last year, as well as a 61.5% completion percentage. I'm sure Rudy Carpenter+Dennis Erickson are licking their chops at that. Yes, San Jose State have good players at QB and RB, but Arizona State, while lacking in defense, should be able to hold SJSU to 24 or less. ASU, in my mind, is a lock to score 40+ in opening week. ASU is somewhere around 3rd or 4th place in the deep Pac 10. I might add the over to this, too. We'll see.

I'm sure I'll add more as we get closer to Saturday, and I'll keep the post updated, so check back.

Money Making Monday

Alright, last week I gave you 3 bets that I made after the initial lines came out. After more homework since then, I've added one game to the list, and many many more leans.

Mississippi @ Memphis (+3)

I love this game for so many reasons. First, this is close to a rivalry game, and it seems to mean more to Memphis than it does Mississippi. Memphis will probably be the most improved team in CUSA this season, and a lot of their misfortunes in 2006 can be traced to trying new things on defense. The Tigers' rush defense should be solid, and don't expect a walk-on at Ole Miss to light anybody up in his first game. I actually think Memphis will win outright, but I'm not a big fan of money lines.

That's all I've added, but I'll give you some leans that could come to fruition over the next week.

LSU (-17) @ Mississippi State
Army @ Akron (-5')
Central Florida @ NC State (-10)
Purdue @ Toledo (+7)
San Jose State @ Arizona State (-15)

I haven't added those yet, thus, "leans." I'll have write-ups if I do. MAKE MONEY MONEY MAKE MONEY MONEY MONAAAAAY!

Money Making Monday: Wednesday Edition

I meant to post this on Monday as the first in a weekly series throughout the season. But I forgot, and I was busy. Anyway, the series will highlight the weekly bets I have made, and possibly some thoughts on some leans I have. I think I will also do a Wednesday update every week, as I add bets as lines move. I think I have to give some sort of disclaimer that this is for entertainment purposes only. If you follow my bets, and I/we lose, don't blame me. It's your "money" (wink wink), so your responsibility.

These 3 weeks leading up to September might be light, but I do have the luxury of telling you about Team Total Win bets I've made. So, for this Money Making Monday, Wednesday Edition, here are the 3 bets I've placed.

Tennessee +5' @ California

I plan on betting every Tennessee game this season, more for fun than money making. This line is excellent, though. You have to expect this to move against Tennessee, too, so get on it while it lasts. If and when this crosses the +4 watermark, I'd lay off it. Not because I think Tennessee will lose, but +4 is a beautiful number in any game. I think Tennessee wins outright, so if you have that same confidence, you could play Tennessee until it became a PK (which won't happen). Tennessee is only worse than Cal on paper at 2 places: WR and special teams. This Tennessee squad has played in the Swamp, Death Valley, and Between the Hedges in the last 2 seasons, so the noise factor will be nil in Berkeley. The cross country travel will have an effect, but the game is 5pm local time, thank goodness.

Arizona State O 7.5 Wins

Their schedule ensures at least 7 wins, not counting the toss-ups with Oregon State, Cal, and UCLA. To be honest, though, the line feels too good, and when lines feel too good, I usually miss. Take it for what it's worth. Arizona State was the 3rd best statistical team in the Pac 10 last year, according to my CAPP calculations. They finished 6th in the Pac 10. Teams that fall into that category usually have a better season the following fall. I'm all over the Devils and ...

Oregon O 7 Wins

... the Ducks. Oregon was the #1 statistical team in the Pac 10 last year. They have a strong secondary, the best 1-2 RB punch in the conference, and the toughest offseason in their history, via Mike Belotti. Dennis Dixon has to do one thing for Oregon to MURDER this total: take care of the football. He doesn't need to be a superstar, he already has those in Jonathan Stewart and Jaison Williams. Don't throw interceptions, be a field general. That's it! Oregon needs to find a fatty for the middle, as well. They almost always do, sans 2006.

So, I'll be sure to update this on Monday, and it could be awkward until the season starts and we get new lines every week. Anyway, play at your own risk.