Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Money Making Monday: Wednesday Edition

I meant to post this on Monday as the first in a weekly series throughout the season. But I forgot, and I was busy. Anyway, the series will highlight the weekly bets I have made, and possibly some thoughts on some leans I have. I think I will also do a Wednesday update every week, as I add bets as lines move. I think I have to give some sort of disclaimer that this is for entertainment purposes only. If you follow my bets, and I/we lose, don't blame me. It's your "money" (wink wink), so your responsibility.

These 3 weeks leading up to September might be light, but I do have the luxury of telling you about Team Total Win bets I've made. So, for this Money Making Monday, Wednesday Edition, here are the 3 bets I've placed.

Tennessee +5' @ California
I plan on betting every Tennessee game this season, more for fun than money making. This line is excellent, though. You have to expect this to move against Tennessee, too, so get on it while it lasts. If and when this crosses the +4 watermark, I'd lay off it. Not because I think Tennessee will lose, but +4 is a beautiful number in any game. I think Tennessee wins outright, so if you have that same confidence, you could play Tennessee until it became a PK (which won't happen). Tennessee is only worse than Cal on paper at 2 places: WR and special teams. This Tennessee squad has played in the Swamp, Death Valley, and Between the Hedges in the last 2 seasons, so the noise factor will be nil in Berkeley. The cross country travel will have an effect, but the game is 5pm local time, thank goodness.

Arizona State O 7.5 Wins
Their schedule ensures at least 7 wins, not counting the toss-ups with Oregon State, Cal, and UCLA. To be honest, though, the line feels too good, and when lines feel too good, I usually miss. Take it for what it's worth. Arizona State was the 3rd best statistical team in the Pac 10 last year, according to my CAPP calculations. They finished 6th in the Pac 10. Teams that fall into that category usually have a better season the following fall. I'm all over the Devils and ...

Oregon O 7 Wins
... the Ducks. Oregon was the #1 statistical team in the Pac 10 last year. They have a strong secondary, the best 1-2 RB punch in the conference, and the toughest offseason in their history, via Mike Belotti. Dennis Dixon has to do one thing for Oregon to MURDER this total: take care of the football. He doesn't need to be a superstar, he already has those in Jonathan Stewart and Jaison Williams. Don't throw interceptions, be a field general. That's it! Oregon needs to find a fatty for the middle, as well. They almost always do, sans 2006.

So, I'll be sure to update this on Monday, and it could be awkward until the season starts and we get new lines every week. Anyway, play at your own risk.


seth said...

I'm inclined to bet Tennessee on the money line.

matt said...

I love those 2 PAC 10 bets. Would you be interested in having a blogger roundtable where we discuss various weekly lines?

Doug Coffin said...

Matt - that would be amazing!