Sunday, August 31, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Big East
Last, not certainly not least, the Big East, where West Virginia feast ...
1.
I feel it in my bones that Bill Stewart will end up being fired from WVU in the next 3 years, but the talent is too good for them to stink this year. The defensive losses could actually allow them to fall to #2, but even USF and Pitt would need help to do it. Pat White/Noel Devine is unfair, and don't forget Terrence Kerns was highly sought after. Who cares if they have unproven WRs, they return every single starting offensive linemen, which means - Pat White, Noel Devine, Jarrett Brown, kitchen sink, all of them running around in different directions. Will the Mountaineers hold anybody under 30 points, though?
2.
I love Pitt this year. They were 2nd in the Big East statistically, which shows they'll improve. They return 15 starters, including Scott McKillop, who James Laurinaitis has wet dreams about. Lesean McCoy, while a bit overrated, is going to reach that level of play this year. Bill Stull or Pat Bostick? Doesn't matter - just get it quickly to McCoy, or Stephens-Howling, or Kinder, or Turner. The offensive line is the big worry - losing Otah and McGlynn to the NFL would bring down any line. Defensively, the only big loss was Joe Clermond who had 10.5 sacks. Greg Romeus will shine, though. The linebackers are sick with McKillop, Murray, and Gunn. The DBs have 2 returning starters, and will need Jovani Chappel to live up to his billing. Overall, Pitt is on the upward trend, and with some bounces, will challenge WVU.
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The Bulls could win the Big East, in all reality. They return 10 starters from a potent offense, and I see no reason why they can't improve on their 34.7 points per game. On defense, there are some obvious worries. Ben Moffitt did everything - over 100 tackles, 12 tfl, 5 pbu, 4 INTs, and the mysterious "heart" everyone talks about. They also lose two NFL draft picks from CB in Jenkins and Williams. Buie and Selvie are frightening at DE, and the safeties are very good. If USF can find a stuffer at MLB and some adequate corners, they'll win the conference.
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Whether you're a seething Connecticut fan right now, or an appreciative Panther fan, leave feedback.
1.
I feel it in my bones that Bill Stewart will end up being fired from WVU in the next 3 years, but the talent is too good for them to stink this year. The defensive losses could actually allow them to fall to #2, but even USF and Pitt would need help to do it. Pat White/Noel Devine is unfair, and don't forget Terrence Kerns was highly sought after. Who cares if they have unproven WRs, they return every single starting offensive linemen, which means - Pat White, Noel Devine, Jarrett Brown, kitchen sink, all of them running around in different directions. Will the Mountaineers hold anybody under 30 points, though?
2.
I love Pitt this year. They were 2nd in the Big East statistically, which shows they'll improve. They return 15 starters, including Scott McKillop, who James Laurinaitis has wet dreams about. Lesean McCoy, while a bit overrated, is going to reach that level of play this year. Bill Stull or Pat Bostick? Doesn't matter - just get it quickly to McCoy, or Stephens-Howling, or Kinder, or Turner. The offensive line is the big worry - losing Otah and McGlynn to the NFL would bring down any line. Defensively, the only big loss was Joe Clermond who had 10.5 sacks. Greg Romeus will shine, though. The linebackers are sick with McKillop, Murray, and Gunn. The DBs have 2 returning starters, and will need Jovani Chappel to live up to his billing. Overall, Pitt is on the upward trend, and with some bounces, will challenge WVU.
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The Bulls could win the Big East, in all reality. They return 10 starters from a potent offense, and I see no reason why they can't improve on their 34.7 points per game. On defense, there are some obvious worries. Ben Moffitt did everything - over 100 tackles, 12 tfl, 5 pbu, 4 INTs, and the mysterious "heart" everyone talks about. They also lose two NFL draft picks from CB in Jenkins and Williams. Buie and Selvie are frightening at DE, and the safeties are very good. If USF can find a stuffer at MLB and some adequate corners, they'll win the conference.
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Whether you're a seething Connecticut fan right now, or an appreciative Panther fan, leave feedback.
Best Damn Predictions in the Land: ACC
The worst BCS conference maybe ever? I keed - but it's bad. Here are my predictions.
ACC Atlantic
1.
It won't be close. Everybody wants to talk about Bowden's annual choke job, but this team is too good for him to screw it up. The offensive line is generally issue #1 when talking about Clemson, but they have some inexperienced talent. They return 2 starters, and Jamarcus Grant and Cory Lambert were talented prospects who could show up. Give the ball to Davis and Spiller, and throw smart playaction passes. It's simple! Defensively, nobody will throw on Clemson. They return all 4 starters from the backfield that allowed only 188 yards per game. The front 4 is also stout - Sapp is the pressure end, and the tackles (Jackson and Scott) are very good. The only issue on the defense is at LB - 1 starter returns. Deandre McDaniel played a good amount last year, though, so he should be fine. The schedule is as easy as pie, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Clemson run the table or lose only 1 game.
2.
The 2nd-4th spots in the division are all jumbled and any of the 3 could finish 2nd. I like FSU because their conference schedule is a little more manageable than Maryland's or Wake's. The new coaches from 2007 should start to make their presence known on the field this year. The skill positions are fine on offense, but the OL has 3 holes to fill. Defensively, the passing D needs to improve, whether through better coverage or more QB pressure from the line. I think with FSU's recruiting and 8 starters returning on D, we could see some vintage stout play from the unit. If FSU can steal a home game from VT or Clemson, they'll finish 2nd in the Atlantic.
3.
Maryland and Wake are dead even in my mind, and I like the Terps because they get Wake in College Park. The offense is going to be very very good, and while they'll have to outscore some folks, that's fine with them. They have talent at QB and RB to go along with their proven WR and OL. If they can cut back on the sacks allowed and increase the ypc, they'll be a potent offense. Defensively, they should improve against the rush with 4 of the front 7 returning. The DBs need work, but Friedgen's secondaries always come through.
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ACC Coastal
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While VT lost a boatload of players to the NFL draft and graduation, the Coastal division isn't ready to take the top spot from the Hokies. While the losses at WR and RB aren't good, the offensive line makes things a bit easier - they return 4 starters. The RB position is stocked with talent, albeit unproven. Sean Glennon will start at QB, with Taylor possibly redshirting. I absolutely hate that idea, though, as a dual QB system works when you have such polar opposite players. The defense returns only 4 starters, but do you really worry about a Bud Foster D? And let me go on record as being the biggest Macho Harris fan outside of Blacksburg. The game at North Carolina will be a real fun one to watch.
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I think the margin between the Canes and the Tarheels is paper thin, but UNC has to travel to Coral Gables, so I give Miami the #2 spot for that. Miami still has the talent on defense to be special, and Shannon will get them there. Offensively, they need to take advantage of returning a LT and a RT on the OL by using the speed of James and Cooper on outside runs. The C and Gs are new, so between the tackle rushing may be difficult. The talent is there for Miami to regain some of it's swagger, but they need to beat the Virginias and NC States. No excuses.
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The Tarheels were -3 in close games and also have 17 returning starters. Butch Davis has started bringing in great high school talent. While 2008 might still be a year away from contending, they should make a bowl game. The Miami game will decide who finishes 2nd. They return 10 starters on O, but need TJ Yates to improve. If he doesn't, watch for Paulus. The running game needs to take advantage of the talents from Little and Houston. The OL returns 4 guys, but they only paved the way for 3.0 ypc last year. The defense has to replace 3 very good players in Balmer, Taylor, and Mapp, but by sheer numbers, they should be okay.
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Duke fan? All 1 of you - leave feedback. Cutcliffe has his hands full, but watch what they do this year.
ACC Atlantic
1.
It won't be close. Everybody wants to talk about Bowden's annual choke job, but this team is too good for him to screw it up. The offensive line is generally issue #1 when talking about Clemson, but they have some inexperienced talent. They return 2 starters, and Jamarcus Grant and Cory Lambert were talented prospects who could show up. Give the ball to Davis and Spiller, and throw smart playaction passes. It's simple! Defensively, nobody will throw on Clemson. They return all 4 starters from the backfield that allowed only 188 yards per game. The front 4 is also stout - Sapp is the pressure end, and the tackles (Jackson and Scott) are very good. The only issue on the defense is at LB - 1 starter returns. Deandre McDaniel played a good amount last year, though, so he should be fine. The schedule is as easy as pie, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Clemson run the table or lose only 1 game.
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The 2nd-4th spots in the division are all jumbled and any of the 3 could finish 2nd. I like FSU because their conference schedule is a little more manageable than Maryland's or Wake's. The new coaches from 2007 should start to make their presence known on the field this year. The skill positions are fine on offense, but the OL has 3 holes to fill. Defensively, the passing D needs to improve, whether through better coverage or more QB pressure from the line. I think with FSU's recruiting and 8 starters returning on D, we could see some vintage stout play from the unit. If FSU can steal a home game from VT or Clemson, they'll finish 2nd in the Atlantic.
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Maryland and Wake are dead even in my mind, and I like the Terps because they get Wake in College Park. The offense is going to be very very good, and while they'll have to outscore some folks, that's fine with them. They have talent at QB and RB to go along with their proven WR and OL. If they can cut back on the sacks allowed and increase the ypc, they'll be a potent offense. Defensively, they should improve against the rush with 4 of the front 7 returning. The DBs need work, but Friedgen's secondaries always come through.
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ACC Coastal
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While VT lost a boatload of players to the NFL draft and graduation, the Coastal division isn't ready to take the top spot from the Hokies. While the losses at WR and RB aren't good, the offensive line makes things a bit easier - they return 4 starters. The RB position is stocked with talent, albeit unproven. Sean Glennon will start at QB, with Taylor possibly redshirting. I absolutely hate that idea, though, as a dual QB system works when you have such polar opposite players. The defense returns only 4 starters, but do you really worry about a Bud Foster D? And let me go on record as being the biggest Macho Harris fan outside of Blacksburg. The game at North Carolina will be a real fun one to watch.
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I think the margin between the Canes and the Tarheels is paper thin, but UNC has to travel to Coral Gables, so I give Miami the #2 spot for that. Miami still has the talent on defense to be special, and Shannon will get them there. Offensively, they need to take advantage of returning a LT and a RT on the OL by using the speed of James and Cooper on outside runs. The C and Gs are new, so between the tackle rushing may be difficult. The talent is there for Miami to regain some of it's swagger, but they need to beat the Virginias and NC States. No excuses.
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The Tarheels were -3 in close games and also have 17 returning starters. Butch Davis has started bringing in great high school talent. While 2008 might still be a year away from contending, they should make a bowl game. The Miami game will decide who finishes 2nd. They return 10 starters on O, but need TJ Yates to improve. If he doesn't, watch for Paulus. The running game needs to take advantage of the talents from Little and Houston. The OL returns 4 guys, but they only paved the way for 3.0 ypc last year. The defense has to replace 3 very good players in Balmer, Taylor, and Mapp, but by sheer numbers, they should be okay.
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Duke fan? All 1 of you - leave feedback. Cutcliffe has his hands full, but watch what they do this year.
Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Pac 10
Last year, the Pac 10 was the 2nd best conference in America, but with graduation, they've become the 3rd this season (rebuilding, if you will).
Here are my predictions for the hardest conference to predict.
1.
The Trojans are always written down as #1, in ink no less, in the Pac 10. Sure, they had the biggest losses across the country to the draft, but who cares? They have raw talent in every direction, and it continues to come. The defense last year was incredible, and it could be better this year, even after losing Rivers, Ellis, and Jackson. They certainly won't be passed against. So, you're an opposing Pac 10 OC, and you have to run against them - have fun getting by Maualuga and Cushing. The offense, on the other hand, is worrisome. Sure, you expect WRs Hazelton and Turner to put it all together, and you have 72 running backs who were Parade All-Americans. But the two very serious concerns are quarterback, and more importantly, the offensive line. They return 1 starter, but have loads of talent waiting. Still, it takes time to adjust to playing every snap in serious college football. I think, in the end, they'll be fine, but growing pains will happen early. Not a pleasant thought when they go: v. Ohio State, BYE, @ Oregon State, v. Oregon, v. Arizona State. Yikes.
2.
The middle tier of the Pac 10 is probably the most intriguing aspect of college football for me each year. Last year, I told you Oregon and ASU would be much improved, and they were. This year, it's much more difficult to say. Oregon lost Dixon and Stewart, but return a star WR and a solid backup RB in Jeremiah Johnson. Plus, they have 3 good offensive linemen returning. However, the way they win this year is through defense. The front 4 produced last year and should be just as good this year. The defensive backfield is no doubt going to be one of the best in the conference, after a subpar 2007. They need MLB John Bacon to return to full form after his injury last year. They could easily finish 6th as they could finish 2nd.
3.
Again, they could finish 2nd-6th, but I like what the defense returns. They only generated 22 sacks last year, but they bring back 3 of their 4 starting DL with some talented backups. The linebackers are the 2nd best in the conference, but the defensive backs have to replace 2 starters, including Decoud, a draft pick. The offense will improve on Riley's mobility alone. Longshore was a statue with a slow release. They return 3 OL with a super super super fast back in Jahvid Best. Tedford will need to run more early while they break in 3 new starting receivers. I can't stress enough how volatile the 2nd tier of the Pac 10 is this year.
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I really wanted to put the Sun Devils at #2, but the signs for regression are too plentiful. They were +3 in close games, lost a bit to the draft, and were 5th in the conference statistically. However, defense wins in the Pac 10, and the Devils have some. It's going to take time for Erickson to infuse talent into the defense, but the guys on hand can get some things done. They need more QB pressure, and should get it with 3 of 4 DL returning. They return 2 starting LB, but the group lacks athleticism. The DBs must replace 2 draft picks, and they have to do it with little talent. Offensively, anytime you return a senior QB the level of Carpenter, you have to be happy. Still, Torain is a big loss, but Herring can handle the load. The receivers look fine, but the offensive line needs to replace 3 starters. The OL is another place where Erickson needs to find talent. ASU could be anywhere from 2nd-5th.
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This spot was between UCLA and Arizona, and it was a very difficult decision. Ultimately, I gave the decision to the better defensive team. UCLA, for all the offensive headaches, will have a stout defense (and defense wins in the P10). UCLA has a good front 7, which will hide some issues in the secondary. CB Alterraun Verner is a future player on Sundays, but the other CB spot and both safeties have new starters. On offense, they just need to feed the ball to Bell and Co. and pass from 3 step drops to talented receivers. The offensive line is so thin and bad, they can't consistently hold DLs for 5-7 step drops. I say run quick slants, quick hitches, and screens to get the ball out fast.
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It's weird - the 2nd-7th place teams could all be shuffled around, and the 8th-10th could be in any order. The Pac 10's year to year changes are insane.
Here are my predictions for the hardest conference to predict.
1.
The Trojans are always written down as #1, in ink no less, in the Pac 10. Sure, they had the biggest losses across the country to the draft, but who cares? They have raw talent in every direction, and it continues to come. The defense last year was incredible, and it could be better this year, even after losing Rivers, Ellis, and Jackson. They certainly won't be passed against. So, you're an opposing Pac 10 OC, and you have to run against them - have fun getting by Maualuga and Cushing. The offense, on the other hand, is worrisome. Sure, you expect WRs Hazelton and Turner to put it all together, and you have 72 running backs who were Parade All-Americans. But the two very serious concerns are quarterback, and more importantly, the offensive line. They return 1 starter, but have loads of talent waiting. Still, it takes time to adjust to playing every snap in serious college football. I think, in the end, they'll be fine, but growing pains will happen early. Not a pleasant thought when they go: v. Ohio State, BYE, @ Oregon State, v. Oregon, v. Arizona State. Yikes.
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The middle tier of the Pac 10 is probably the most intriguing aspect of college football for me each year. Last year, I told you Oregon and ASU would be much improved, and they were. This year, it's much more difficult to say. Oregon lost Dixon and Stewart, but return a star WR and a solid backup RB in Jeremiah Johnson. Plus, they have 3 good offensive linemen returning. However, the way they win this year is through defense. The front 4 produced last year and should be just as good this year. The defensive backfield is no doubt going to be one of the best in the conference, after a subpar 2007. They need MLB John Bacon to return to full form after his injury last year. They could easily finish 6th as they could finish 2nd.
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Again, they could finish 2nd-6th, but I like what the defense returns. They only generated 22 sacks last year, but they bring back 3 of their 4 starting DL with some talented backups. The linebackers are the 2nd best in the conference, but the defensive backs have to replace 2 starters, including Decoud, a draft pick. The offense will improve on Riley's mobility alone. Longshore was a statue with a slow release. They return 3 OL with a super super super fast back in Jahvid Best. Tedford will need to run more early while they break in 3 new starting receivers. I can't stress enough how volatile the 2nd tier of the Pac 10 is this year.
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I really wanted to put the Sun Devils at #2, but the signs for regression are too plentiful. They were +3 in close games, lost a bit to the draft, and were 5th in the conference statistically. However, defense wins in the Pac 10, and the Devils have some. It's going to take time for Erickson to infuse talent into the defense, but the guys on hand can get some things done. They need more QB pressure, and should get it with 3 of 4 DL returning. They return 2 starting LB, but the group lacks athleticism. The DBs must replace 2 draft picks, and they have to do it with little talent. Offensively, anytime you return a senior QB the level of Carpenter, you have to be happy. Still, Torain is a big loss, but Herring can handle the load. The receivers look fine, but the offensive line needs to replace 3 starters. The OL is another place where Erickson needs to find talent. ASU could be anywhere from 2nd-5th.
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This spot was between UCLA and Arizona, and it was a very difficult decision. Ultimately, I gave the decision to the better defensive team. UCLA, for all the offensive headaches, will have a stout defense (and defense wins in the P10). UCLA has a good front 7, which will hide some issues in the secondary. CB Alterraun Verner is a future player on Sundays, but the other CB spot and both safeties have new starters. On offense, they just need to feed the ball to Bell and Co. and pass from 3 step drops to talented receivers. The offensive line is so thin and bad, they can't consistently hold DLs for 5-7 step drops. I say run quick slants, quick hitches, and screens to get the ball out fast.
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It's weird - the 2nd-7th place teams could all be shuffled around, and the 8th-10th could be in any order. The Pac 10's year to year changes are insane.
Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Big 12
Keep rollin rollin rollin rollin rollin rollin.....
Here are my Big 12 (#2 conference in 2008) predictions for this season.
Big 12 South
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This Oklahoma team is stacked and has the schedule set up just right. There are worries at LB and DB for the Sooners, but the sick talent on the defensive line will allow the raw talent in the back 7 to make plays. The Sooner defense has VHTs (Steele TM) all over the place, so it's a matter of time before they explode. Offensively, they are just sick. Sam Bradford was the best QB in the nation last year, and he has playmakers everywhere ... again. Murray and Brown are both battle tested, plus Jermie Calhoun and Justin Johnson are super frosh. All of these things are going to be fine behind an entire returning offensive line where 3 of them made either 1st or 2nd Team All Big 12. Loadholt and Robinson are 1st round talents, and Walker, Cooper, and Braxton are draft picks, possibly 1st day ... and all are seniors. If they can win the annual showdown with Texas (they will) and stay focused on the road, they'll play for the national title.
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Did you know Tech actually ranked 2nd statistically in Big 12 play last year? Some people have pegged them as surprise B12 South champs, but they don't have the same talent as OU in the trenches. Everybody knows about the offense, and it returns 10 starters. The pass defense for Tech was good last year, mainly because everybody ran it down their throat. They only generated 25 sacks and were -5 in turnover margin. Normally, with 8 returning starters, you'd expect improvement. However, TT doesn't have a lot of raw talent on hand on defense. Yes, those players will be a little better, but enough to take over the South? I don't think so. They have to travel to Norman, and it could decide the division.
3.
With the addition of Will Muschamp, the Longhorns could jump above Tech for #2 this year. However, I'm still not sold on Colt McCoy, and I think his struggles will continue. The loss of Jamaal Charles will also be felt, but it's hard to ignore the masses of highly touted players they have on the roster. Same deal with the defense - only 4 returning starters, but VHTs (Steele TM) EVERYWHERE. I think Deon Beasley is a star in the making, but the defense will need another year before it's dominant. 2009 could be a very special season for the Horns, but be patient through a 9-3 (6-2) season.
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Big 12 North
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Normally when a team comes out of nowhere (I predicted it last year though), they regress the next year. Not Missouri, though. They were the #1 team statistically in the Big 12 and lost little to the draft. A couple points of concern are the +13 in turnovers (signals a regression) and +2 in close games (signals a regression). However, at worst they'll lose 2 games in a mediocre North division. Tony Temple was better than people thought, and Franklin and Rucker were very good targets for Daniel. They return 10 of their top 11 tacklers, so the defense will improve, too. However, they generated only 30 sacks last year, and lose 6.5 with the graduation of Lorenzo Williams. William Moore is a stud at safety, but for the secondary's sake, the pass rush needs to get there.
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I really wanted to put Kansas at #3, but I couldn't. Just know this: they are going to lose at least 4 games overall, and probably 3 in conference. Their schedule is exponentially more difficult than a year ago: @ Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, v. Missouri, v. Texas, v. Texas Tech. They MIGHT lose 4 conference games. But I have to give them the benefit of the doubt. They return 6 starters from a potent offense, but they lose two 2-year starters from the line and a productive RB in McAnderson. Reesing will certainly regress, too. The defense returns 9 starters and 8 of their top 10 tacklers. Still, their +21 in turnovers and +3 in close games are two red flags.
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I originally had the Huskers pegged for #2, but that defense still scares the crap out of me. It will take more than 1 season for Bo Pelini to fix it. The offense should remain very good, and with a bit more rushing offense, it can keep the defense off the field. The biggest thing for the Huskers is to improve on the awful 13 sacks it produced on defense last year. You could have Champ Bailey, Deangelo Hall, Bob Sanders, and Adrian Wilson in the backfield and still get torched when you don't get pressure on the QB. Luckily, the Huskers return all 4 starting defensive linemen, and they're talented. Pelini can generate a pass rush with these guys. Still, 3-5/4-4 is probably the end result.
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If you're a Colorado fan, you'll probably leave feedback.
Here are my Big 12 (#2 conference in 2008) predictions for this season.
Big 12 South
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This Oklahoma team is stacked and has the schedule set up just right. There are worries at LB and DB for the Sooners, but the sick talent on the defensive line will allow the raw talent in the back 7 to make plays. The Sooner defense has VHTs (Steele TM) all over the place, so it's a matter of time before they explode. Offensively, they are just sick. Sam Bradford was the best QB in the nation last year, and he has playmakers everywhere ... again. Murray and Brown are both battle tested, plus Jermie Calhoun and Justin Johnson are super frosh. All of these things are going to be fine behind an entire returning offensive line where 3 of them made either 1st or 2nd Team All Big 12. Loadholt and Robinson are 1st round talents, and Walker, Cooper, and Braxton are draft picks, possibly 1st day ... and all are seniors. If they can win the annual showdown with Texas (they will) and stay focused on the road, they'll play for the national title.
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Did you know Tech actually ranked 2nd statistically in Big 12 play last year? Some people have pegged them as surprise B12 South champs, but they don't have the same talent as OU in the trenches. Everybody knows about the offense, and it returns 10 starters. The pass defense for Tech was good last year, mainly because everybody ran it down their throat. They only generated 25 sacks and were -5 in turnover margin. Normally, with 8 returning starters, you'd expect improvement. However, TT doesn't have a lot of raw talent on hand on defense. Yes, those players will be a little better, but enough to take over the South? I don't think so. They have to travel to Norman, and it could decide the division.
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With the addition of Will Muschamp, the Longhorns could jump above Tech for #2 this year. However, I'm still not sold on Colt McCoy, and I think his struggles will continue. The loss of Jamaal Charles will also be felt, but it's hard to ignore the masses of highly touted players they have on the roster. Same deal with the defense - only 4 returning starters, but VHTs (Steele TM) EVERYWHERE. I think Deon Beasley is a star in the making, but the defense will need another year before it's dominant. 2009 could be a very special season for the Horns, but be patient through a 9-3 (6-2) season.
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Big 12 North
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Normally when a team comes out of nowhere (I predicted it last year though), they regress the next year. Not Missouri, though. They were the #1 team statistically in the Big 12 and lost little to the draft. A couple points of concern are the +13 in turnovers (signals a regression) and +2 in close games (signals a regression). However, at worst they'll lose 2 games in a mediocre North division. Tony Temple was better than people thought, and Franklin and Rucker were very good targets for Daniel. They return 10 of their top 11 tacklers, so the defense will improve, too. However, they generated only 30 sacks last year, and lose 6.5 with the graduation of Lorenzo Williams. William Moore is a stud at safety, but for the secondary's sake, the pass rush needs to get there.
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I really wanted to put Kansas at #3, but I couldn't. Just know this: they are going to lose at least 4 games overall, and probably 3 in conference. Their schedule is exponentially more difficult than a year ago: @ Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, v. Missouri, v. Texas, v. Texas Tech. They MIGHT lose 4 conference games. But I have to give them the benefit of the doubt. They return 6 starters from a potent offense, but they lose two 2-year starters from the line and a productive RB in McAnderson. Reesing will certainly regress, too. The defense returns 9 starters and 8 of their top 10 tacklers. Still, their +21 in turnovers and +3 in close games are two red flags.
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I originally had the Huskers pegged for #2, but that defense still scares the crap out of me. It will take more than 1 season for Bo Pelini to fix it. The offense should remain very good, and with a bit more rushing offense, it can keep the defense off the field. The biggest thing for the Huskers is to improve on the awful 13 sacks it produced on defense last year. You could have Champ Bailey, Deangelo Hall, Bob Sanders, and Adrian Wilson in the backfield and still get torched when you don't get pressure on the QB. Luckily, the Huskers return all 4 starting defensive linemen, and they're talented. Pelini can generate a pass rush with these guys. Still, 3-5/4-4 is probably the end result.
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If you're a Colorado fan, you'll probably leave feedback.
Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Big 10
We're speeding this up because the GAMES START TONIGHT! The wait is over for football season - thank the Lord.
Here are my predictions for the final Big 10 standings.
1.
I'm not sure anybody could make a case for a team not named Ohio State for #1. Fans across the South have mercilessly mentioned that they think Ohio State is a fraud, but I don't buy it. Ohio State will make a run for the national title this year because this team is very, very good. They may lose a game or two in the conference, but they'll win the Big 10 easily.
2.
Losing Anthony Morelli is addition by subtraction, and Pat Devlin gives them the mobile QB they need. The defensive line losses this summer make me a little worried about this prediction, but they had such amazing depth to begin with. The young stable of running backs should be electric while dynamic. It's time for the big 3 (Williams, Butler, Norwood) to live up to expectations. I think Penn State will run the table at home in conference, and lose 2 road games to Wisconsin and Ohio State. The games at Purdue and versus Illinois/Michigan State will determine where State finishes.
3.
The Spartans are my #1 surprise team of 2008. They return, in my opinion, the best running back in the country in Javon Ringer, an underrated QB in Brian Hoyer, and 3 offensive linemen. They have some questions at wide receiver, but Mark Dantonio offenses at Cincinnati always threw the ball well. The defense needs to improve against the pass, and I think they will with 3 returning starters in the back. The Spartans won't get 40 sacks again, especially after losing 18.5 from Baldwin and Saint-Dic. However, as with the offensive pass game, Dantonio can find defense. He's one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and will be a hot commodity in the next few. The schedule helps Sparty. They get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home (win 1!) and they can beat Michigan on the road. I see 2-3 conference losses for the Spartans.
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The Badgers are getting a lot of preseason hype, and I can see why with 17 returning staters. They have 4 returning OL and 3 returning DL, so the trenches are well stocked. Honestly, I think Wisconsin could be anywhere from 1-4 in these predictions. I think they lose @ Michigan St, @ Michigan, and v. Ohio State. That would be 5-3 and a tie with Sparty. I'm fairly worried about their QB situation, but does it matter? Line up, give PJ Hill, John Clay, Zach Brown, and Lance Smith the ball, score. The end.
5.
I'm a big fan of the Illini. I was a Rashard Mendenhall fan in the summer of 07 and predicted a huge year for him. I was right. Illinois lived above expectations, though. They finished 3rd in the Big 10, but were 6th statistically. That's not a good sign. They lose THE reason they won so many games - Mendenhall. Juice Williams has potential, but he isn't the passer he needs to be. Benn and Co. at WR will be great, and they return 3 starters on the OL. If Dufrene can give them 1,000 yards, they should be formidable. Defensively, it's a mixed bag. They return Vontae Davis, superstar in the making, but lose J Leman and two other top tacklers. All told, they lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers, which never bodes well. The defensive line returns almost all their sacks, and Will Davis is a star. Illinois, with increased security from Juice and a solid year from Dufrene, could finish as high as #2 in the conference.
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Leave feedback if you feel it's interesting.
Here are my predictions for the final Big 10 standings.
1.
I'm not sure anybody could make a case for a team not named Ohio State for #1. Fans across the South have mercilessly mentioned that they think Ohio State is a fraud, but I don't buy it. Ohio State will make a run for the national title this year because this team is very, very good. They may lose a game or two in the conference, but they'll win the Big 10 easily.
2.
Losing Anthony Morelli is addition by subtraction, and Pat Devlin gives them the mobile QB they need. The defensive line losses this summer make me a little worried about this prediction, but they had such amazing depth to begin with. The young stable of running backs should be electric while dynamic. It's time for the big 3 (Williams, Butler, Norwood) to live up to expectations. I think Penn State will run the table at home in conference, and lose 2 road games to Wisconsin and Ohio State. The games at Purdue and versus Illinois/Michigan State will determine where State finishes.
3.
The Spartans are my #1 surprise team of 2008. They return, in my opinion, the best running back in the country in Javon Ringer, an underrated QB in Brian Hoyer, and 3 offensive linemen. They have some questions at wide receiver, but Mark Dantonio offenses at Cincinnati always threw the ball well. The defense needs to improve against the pass, and I think they will with 3 returning starters in the back. The Spartans won't get 40 sacks again, especially after losing 18.5 from Baldwin and Saint-Dic. However, as with the offensive pass game, Dantonio can find defense. He's one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and will be a hot commodity in the next few. The schedule helps Sparty. They get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home (win 1!) and they can beat Michigan on the road. I see 2-3 conference losses for the Spartans.
4.
The Badgers are getting a lot of preseason hype, and I can see why with 17 returning staters. They have 4 returning OL and 3 returning DL, so the trenches are well stocked. Honestly, I think Wisconsin could be anywhere from 1-4 in these predictions. I think they lose @ Michigan St, @ Michigan, and v. Ohio State. That would be 5-3 and a tie with Sparty. I'm fairly worried about their QB situation, but does it matter? Line up, give PJ Hill, John Clay, Zach Brown, and Lance Smith the ball, score. The end.
5.
I'm a big fan of the Illini. I was a Rashard Mendenhall fan in the summer of 07 and predicted a huge year for him. I was right. Illinois lived above expectations, though. They finished 3rd in the Big 10, but were 6th statistically. That's not a good sign. They lose THE reason they won so many games - Mendenhall. Juice Williams has potential, but he isn't the passer he needs to be. Benn and Co. at WR will be great, and they return 3 starters on the OL. If Dufrene can give them 1,000 yards, they should be formidable. Defensively, it's a mixed bag. They return Vontae Davis, superstar in the making, but lose J Leman and two other top tacklers. All told, they lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers, which never bodes well. The defensive line returns almost all their sacks, and Will Davis is a star. Illinois, with increased security from Juice and a solid year from Dufrene, could finish as high as #2 in the conference.
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Leave feedback if you feel it's interesting.
Best Damn Predictions in the Land: SEC
I'm moving APP Breakdowns to tomorrow so I can officially get my predictions on the interwebs highway, as well as "Money Making Monday (Thursday Edition)" and the Immersion Effect.
No waiting, full throttle forward - SEC Predictions.
SEC East
1.
People are hesitant to throw their hat in the ring for the Florida Gators this year due to the still iffy defensive backfield situation. It didn't help that 47 more young Gators got hurt. However, I have one question for you. HAVE YOU LOOKED AT THEIR SEC SCHEDULE? They have 2 toss-ups in a road game at Tennessee and the World's Largest Orson Swindle Party with Georgia. Yes, they do have LSU, but it's in the Swamp, and Florida will be 5-7 point favorites. Thusly, I have the Gators pegged for 7-1 in conference, and representing the East in Atlanta.
2.
With the blinding spotlight fixated on Athens and Gainesville, the Vols are under the radar. This team won the East last year, and was one Aingean toss within a conference title. Pundits and fans alike point to the loss of Ainge and Jerod Mayo, as well as the addition of new coordinator Dave Clawson, as reasons to sell the Vols short. But let me tell you this: while Jon Crompton may not complete 67% of his passes and will have more INTs than Ainge, he'll make that offense more dangerous. He has a bigger cannon than Ainge, a healthier pinky, and has more wheels to make plays happen with his legs. The Vols have a tough SEC road though: v. Florida, @ Auburn, @ Georgia, v. Alabama, @ South Carolina. I expect a 6-2 conference record.
3.
Don't buy the hype. Yes, Georgia is insanely good at the skill positions. Yes, their defense is pretty good, too. However, two things have created a great wall between 3rd in the East and the MNC: the offensive line and the schedule. In the SEC, if you don't have a dominant offensive line, you're in for headaches every week. Think you don't need a line against perennial SEC bottom feeder Kentucky? Yeah, have fun picking yourself up off the grass when Jeremy Jarmon is laying on you. Georgia also has the Orson Swindle Party with Florida, a home game against Tennessee, @ Auburn, @ South Carolina, v. Alabama, and @ LSU. I see 3 conference losses, most likely Florida, LSU, and Auburn. This team has the talent to do what Florida did in 2006, though.
4.
The Gamecocks are the Chicago Cubs of the SEC. "Wait until next year" and "We're going to surprise some people this year" ring through Columbia like it was Wrigley Field. I think the term Lovable Losers fits, too, as Steve Spurrier has become a cuddly ol' ball coach, instead of rude ol' ball coach. The Gamecocks have the defense to win a conference title, really, they do. But they still have issues on the offensive line, they have to replace a very underrated RB in Cory Boyd (Mike Davis doesn't cut it, unless you're playing fridges), and I'm not sold on any receiver behind McKinley. Oh, and they no quarterbacks. None, nil, zilch, nada, nien. I believe the Spurriers will beat either UGA, LSU, or UT in Columbia, I also think they'll stumble at either Ole Miss or Kentucky in back to back road games. I see 4-4 this season, but 5-3 or 3-5 are very much in play.
5.
The short road back to irrelevance starts now for Kentucky. It won't be a total embarrassment, because that defense is actually pretty sick. However, Cat fans need to realize that Andre Woodson, Rafael Little, and Keenan Burton were the best QB-RB-WR trio the school has ever produced, and all 3 are gone. Curtis Pulley is gone, too. The Cats have a good offensive line, and two solid running backs, so we'll probably see a change of offensive pace. The defense is where they'll win some games. The defensive line is their best in who knows how long - Jarmon is a star in the making, Myron Pryor and Corey Peters are formidable in the middle. And they have, in my opinion, a future 1st/2nd round draft pick in cornerback Trevard Lindley. He's 6 feet tall, and as a freshman has 12 pbu, then, as a sophomore, had 11 pbu and 3 picks. His partner on the other side, Paul Warford ain't too shabby, either. Still, the offense will take huge strides backwards, and 2-3 conference wins will be the max.
6.
Vanderbilt was actually decent last year. They lost close games against Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee - win one, and they were probably in a bowl. But graduation has left a dearth of SEC starting experience. They have 0 returning starters on the offensive lost, lost their stud wide receiver, and have a QB controversy. Plus, the defense loses leader Jon Goff. Vandy does sport one of the best defensive backfields in the conference - DJ Moore had 83 tackles, 10 pbu, and 6 INTs; Myron Lewis had 12 pbu and 49 tackles; Reshard Langford had 65 tackles, 4.5 tfl, 8 pbu, and 2 INTs; Ryan Hamilton had 68 tackles, 2.5 tfl, and 5 pbu. Still, with only 9 starters returning for the team, they'll struggle to win a game in the SEC.
SEC West
1.
There has been a very common thread this offseason about Auburn. One person will rank them in the top 12 and/or to win the SEC West, and someone else will scream, "BUT THEY HAVE TWO NEW COORDINATORS AND A NEW OFFENSIVE SYSTEM!" Then I come in and say, "That's a long sentence to scream." Anyway, Auburn was better statistically last season than their final record showed. Their defense has NFL talent at every level, and it's deep. Ben Tate and Brad Lester won't wow you at running back, but that tandem gets it done in workman like fashion. They return every offensive line starter, so with a heavy dose of the running game, Kodi Burns and Chris Todd don't have to win games early on. Their conference schedule shapes up nicely, too. Their 3 toughest conference games are at home: LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia. They do travel to Alabama (where the streak will be broken). Auburn will get revenge at Miss State. Auburn will be 7-1 or 6-2, and as long as they beat LSU, 6-2 will win the West.
2.
It took me a very long time to decide between LSU and Alabama for #2. I go with LSU because I think both teams could finish 5-3, with LSU beating Alabama in Death Valley. Another reason: LSU is more likely to go 6-2 than Alabama is. LSU still has boatloads of talent at every position, and I'm probably overreacting to the Perilloux dismissal. Still, you can't feel comfortable with Andrew Hatch, no matter who you have around him. Oh, and what the hell is with the preseason hype for LaFell and Byrd? Yes, they're good, but they need to prove they're top tier receivers. The Tigers have 3 tough road games: @ Florida, @ South Carolina, and @ Auburn. I think they might lose all 3.
3.
The rebuilding continues, and 2008 will be another stepping stone to the West crown. The freshmen, as undoubtedly talented as they can be, are just that: freshmen. You can't expect new SEC players to win the conference. Hell, probably not in 2009, either, as they break in a new QB. 2010 will be the first season the Tide will be favorites to win the West. They'll show great improvement this year, though. Their record just won't show it that much. They will lose 3 conference road games with a couple landmines at home. Their offensive line will be one of the best in the SEC, and Terry Grant is poised for a breakout season. The defense is the worry, though. They have young talent everywhere, but young defensive players get eaten alive in the tough SEC, so I expect some struggles there. 5-3 is almost certain.
4.
The injury to Greg Hardy makes me seriously hesitate to do this, but I'm sticking to it. Oregeron was a great recruiter, but couldn't capitalize on the talent he brought in. Houston Nutt will change that - instant impact here we come. Jevan Snead, while new, should be serviceable at the very least. Enrique Davis and Cordera Eason are long on talent and short on experience. The offensive line returns 4 starters, so that should really drive their offense. The defense originally returned 9 starters, but Greg Hardy is done for the season - losing 18.5 tackles for loss cannot be replaced. Peria Jerry is a top tier tackle, and end Marcus Tillman can do some things to help curb the loss of Hardy. The linebackers and defensive backs have experience and will lead this team to 3 conference wins.
5.
I originally had the Hogs slated for last, but I think Bobby Petrino will sneak out a win they don't deserve. Their best chances for a conference victory are in Fayetteville against Alabama and Ole Miss, or on the road at Miss State. The 3 returning starters on the defensive line return 24 tackles for loss, which will help the four new starters at DB. The loss of Freddie Fairchild is also bad for this team. I do like Petrino as a coach (not a person), so I think they'll give some defenses fits. 1-7 or 2-6 is their ceiling this year.
6.
It's always funny when I completely disagree with the average joe fan about a team. People are saying, "Ooooo, watch out for State!" Sorry, State isn't going to be very good. They were beneficiaries of a +4 in close games, and were LAST in the SEC statistically. They also still don't have a QB. Dixon is overrated at RB, and the offensive line needs work. Their defense will be very good again, but they won't luckbox their way to a bowl game again. 1-7? I think so.
There it is - the best damn SEC predictions in the land. Come back in December and mock me or praise me.
No waiting, full throttle forward - SEC Predictions.
SEC East
1.
People are hesitant to throw their hat in the ring for the Florida Gators this year due to the still iffy defensive backfield situation. It didn't help that 47 more young Gators got hurt. However, I have one question for you. HAVE YOU LOOKED AT THEIR SEC SCHEDULE? They have 2 toss-ups in a road game at Tennessee and the World's Largest Orson Swindle Party with Georgia. Yes, they do have LSU, but it's in the Swamp, and Florida will be 5-7 point favorites. Thusly, I have the Gators pegged for 7-1 in conference, and representing the East in Atlanta.
2.
With the blinding spotlight fixated on Athens and Gainesville, the Vols are under the radar. This team won the East last year, and was one Aingean toss within a conference title. Pundits and fans alike point to the loss of Ainge and Jerod Mayo, as well as the addition of new coordinator Dave Clawson, as reasons to sell the Vols short. But let me tell you this: while Jon Crompton may not complete 67% of his passes and will have more INTs than Ainge, he'll make that offense more dangerous. He has a bigger cannon than Ainge, a healthier pinky, and has more wheels to make plays happen with his legs. The Vols have a tough SEC road though: v. Florida, @ Auburn, @ Georgia, v. Alabama, @ South Carolina. I expect a 6-2 conference record.
3.
Don't buy the hype. Yes, Georgia is insanely good at the skill positions. Yes, their defense is pretty good, too. However, two things have created a great wall between 3rd in the East and the MNC: the offensive line and the schedule. In the SEC, if you don't have a dominant offensive line, you're in for headaches every week. Think you don't need a line against perennial SEC bottom feeder Kentucky? Yeah, have fun picking yourself up off the grass when Jeremy Jarmon is laying on you. Georgia also has the Orson Swindle Party with Florida, a home game against Tennessee, @ Auburn, @ South Carolina, v. Alabama, and @ LSU. I see 3 conference losses, most likely Florida, LSU, and Auburn. This team has the talent to do what Florida did in 2006, though.
4.
The Gamecocks are the Chicago Cubs of the SEC. "Wait until next year" and "We're going to surprise some people this year" ring through Columbia like it was Wrigley Field. I think the term Lovable Losers fits, too, as Steve Spurrier has become a cuddly ol' ball coach, instead of rude ol' ball coach. The Gamecocks have the defense to win a conference title, really, they do. But they still have issues on the offensive line, they have to replace a very underrated RB in Cory Boyd (Mike Davis doesn't cut it, unless you're playing fridges), and I'm not sold on any receiver behind McKinley. Oh, and they no quarterbacks. None, nil, zilch, nada, nien. I believe the Spurriers will beat either UGA, LSU, or UT in Columbia, I also think they'll stumble at either Ole Miss or Kentucky in back to back road games. I see 4-4 this season, but 5-3 or 3-5 are very much in play.
5.
The short road back to irrelevance starts now for Kentucky. It won't be a total embarrassment, because that defense is actually pretty sick. However, Cat fans need to realize that Andre Woodson, Rafael Little, and Keenan Burton were the best QB-RB-WR trio the school has ever produced, and all 3 are gone. Curtis Pulley is gone, too. The Cats have a good offensive line, and two solid running backs, so we'll probably see a change of offensive pace. The defense is where they'll win some games. The defensive line is their best in who knows how long - Jarmon is a star in the making, Myron Pryor and Corey Peters are formidable in the middle. And they have, in my opinion, a future 1st/2nd round draft pick in cornerback Trevard Lindley. He's 6 feet tall, and as a freshman has 12 pbu, then, as a sophomore, had 11 pbu and 3 picks. His partner on the other side, Paul Warford ain't too shabby, either. Still, the offense will take huge strides backwards, and 2-3 conference wins will be the max.
6.
Vanderbilt was actually decent last year. They lost close games against Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee - win one, and they were probably in a bowl. But graduation has left a dearth of SEC starting experience. They have 0 returning starters on the offensive lost, lost their stud wide receiver, and have a QB controversy. Plus, the defense loses leader Jon Goff. Vandy does sport one of the best defensive backfields in the conference - DJ Moore had 83 tackles, 10 pbu, and 6 INTs; Myron Lewis had 12 pbu and 49 tackles; Reshard Langford had 65 tackles, 4.5 tfl, 8 pbu, and 2 INTs; Ryan Hamilton had 68 tackles, 2.5 tfl, and 5 pbu. Still, with only 9 starters returning for the team, they'll struggle to win a game in the SEC.
SEC West
1.
There has been a very common thread this offseason about Auburn. One person will rank them in the top 12 and/or to win the SEC West, and someone else will scream, "BUT THEY HAVE TWO NEW COORDINATORS AND A NEW OFFENSIVE SYSTEM!" Then I come in and say, "That's a long sentence to scream." Anyway, Auburn was better statistically last season than their final record showed. Their defense has NFL talent at every level, and it's deep. Ben Tate and Brad Lester won't wow you at running back, but that tandem gets it done in workman like fashion. They return every offensive line starter, so with a heavy dose of the running game, Kodi Burns and Chris Todd don't have to win games early on. Their conference schedule shapes up nicely, too. Their 3 toughest conference games are at home: LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia. They do travel to Alabama (where the streak will be broken). Auburn will get revenge at Miss State. Auburn will be 7-1 or 6-2, and as long as they beat LSU, 6-2 will win the West.
2.
It took me a very long time to decide between LSU and Alabama for #2. I go with LSU because I think both teams could finish 5-3, with LSU beating Alabama in Death Valley. Another reason: LSU is more likely to go 6-2 than Alabama is. LSU still has boatloads of talent at every position, and I'm probably overreacting to the Perilloux dismissal. Still, you can't feel comfortable with Andrew Hatch, no matter who you have around him. Oh, and what the hell is with the preseason hype for LaFell and Byrd? Yes, they're good, but they need to prove they're top tier receivers. The Tigers have 3 tough road games: @ Florida, @ South Carolina, and @ Auburn. I think they might lose all 3.
3.
The rebuilding continues, and 2008 will be another stepping stone to the West crown. The freshmen, as undoubtedly talented as they can be, are just that: freshmen. You can't expect new SEC players to win the conference. Hell, probably not in 2009, either, as they break in a new QB. 2010 will be the first season the Tide will be favorites to win the West. They'll show great improvement this year, though. Their record just won't show it that much. They will lose 3 conference road games with a couple landmines at home. Their offensive line will be one of the best in the SEC, and Terry Grant is poised for a breakout season. The defense is the worry, though. They have young talent everywhere, but young defensive players get eaten alive in the tough SEC, so I expect some struggles there. 5-3 is almost certain.
4.
The injury to Greg Hardy makes me seriously hesitate to do this, but I'm sticking to it. Oregeron was a great recruiter, but couldn't capitalize on the talent he brought in. Houston Nutt will change that - instant impact here we come. Jevan Snead, while new, should be serviceable at the very least. Enrique Davis and Cordera Eason are long on talent and short on experience. The offensive line returns 4 starters, so that should really drive their offense. The defense originally returned 9 starters, but Greg Hardy is done for the season - losing 18.5 tackles for loss cannot be replaced. Peria Jerry is a top tier tackle, and end Marcus Tillman can do some things to help curb the loss of Hardy. The linebackers and defensive backs have experience and will lead this team to 3 conference wins.
5.
I originally had the Hogs slated for last, but I think Bobby Petrino will sneak out a win they don't deserve. Their best chances for a conference victory are in Fayetteville against Alabama and Ole Miss, or on the road at Miss State. The 3 returning starters on the defensive line return 24 tackles for loss, which will help the four new starters at DB. The loss of Freddie Fairchild is also bad for this team. I do like Petrino as a coach (not a person), so I think they'll give some defenses fits. 1-7 or 2-6 is their ceiling this year.
6.
It's always funny when I completely disagree with the average joe fan about a team. People are saying, "Ooooo, watch out for State!" Sorry, State isn't going to be very good. They were beneficiaries of a +4 in close games, and were LAST in the SEC statistically. They also still don't have a QB. Dixon is overrated at RB, and the offensive line needs work. Their defense will be very good again, but they won't luckbox their way to a bowl game again. 1-7? I think so.
There it is - the best damn SEC predictions in the land. Come back in December and mock me or praise me.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
APP Breakdown: Pac 10
We keep going with another APP Breakdown, this time for the Pac 10. I believe the Pac 10 was the 2nd best conference in America, but are poised for a down year in 2008. However, here's the APP Breakdown from 2007.
Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):
1. Oregon 115.9
2. Washington State 112.1
3. Washington 107.1
4. USC 103.3
5. Cal 101.2
6. Arizona State 100.6
7. Arizona 98.7
8. Oregon State 90.7
9. UCLA 90.5
10. Stanford 79.9
I'm surprised ASU ranked so low, barely above average. Outside of Stanford, there were no horrible offenses. Even UCLA, who I thought would have been worse, has a respectable score for 9th place. The Pac 10, who used to be known for ALL offense-NO defense play, had no absolutely outstanding offenses last year. The run/pass scores are below.
Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):
1. Oregon 148.3
2. Washington 147.2
3. UCLA 116.1
4. Oregon State 114.7
5. USC 109.1
6. Cal 99.6
7. Arizona State 83.1
8. Washington State 71.9
9. Stanford 57.2
10. Arizona 51.1
The Pac 10 had 4 very bad rush offense, though, one of them (Arizona) is understandable due to offensive system. Arizona State was surprisingly low, and will really need to improve that area to stay in the top 3 of the Pac 10.
Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):
1. Washington State 136.1
2. Arizona 127
3. Arizona State 111.5
4. Cal 102.1
5. USC 99.7
6. Oregon 95.9
7. Stanford 93.4
8. Washington 84
9. Oregon State 75.5
10. UCLA 75
So can we officially kill the "PAC 10=PASS PASS PASS ZOMG" theory? Only 4 offenses were any good, and the bottom 3 were awful. USC was right at average, even with a senior QB. Interesting.
Let's go to other side of the LOS.
Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):
1. USC 150.3
2. Oregon State 115.7
3. UCLA 107.2
4. Arizona State 101.8
5. Cal 101.3
6. Arizona 100.9
7. Oregon 99.1
8. Washington State 88.4
9. Stanford 82.7
10. Washington 81.6
See? The Pac 10 was a defense driven conference last year. 6 teams were above average, and Oregon was right there, too. The bottom 3 weren't good, but again, not wretched. Below, as usual, are the run/pass breakouts.
Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):
1.USC 164.9
2. Oregon State 155.3
3. Arizona State 130.3
4. Oregon 109.2
5. UCLA 108.3
6. Arizona 97.4
7. Cal 90.3
8. Washington State 86.6
9. Stanford 78.1
10. Washington 64
The fact is: if you want to be a player in the Pac 10, stop the run. 5 of the top 6 rush defenses in the Pac 10 made a bowl. The top 4 finishers in the final standings are the top 4 in the standings in RDAPP.
Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP:)
1. USC 142.7
2. Cal 109.5
3. UCLA 106.6
4. Arizona 103.3
5. Oregon State 100.9
6. Washington 96.7
7. Oregon 94.2
8. Arizona State 89.7
9. Washington State 89.6
10. Stanford 85.9
Holy parity! Stanford's 85.9 would be better than last in most conferences. Arizona State's low score has to worry Sun Devil fans going forward. Cal rebounded well from a poor 2006 in pass defense to finish 2nd this past season.
Onto the final standings!
Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP)
1. USC 126.8
2. Oregon 107.5
3. Oregon State 103.2
4. Cal 101.3
5. Arizona State 101.2
6. Washington State 100.3
7. Arizona 99.8
8. UCLA 98.9
9. Washington 94.4
10. Stanford 81.3
Using this metric, Arizona State could be in for a couple more losses. They finished 2nd in the Pac 10 standings, but were 5th in CAPP. Cal finished 7th in the Pac 10, but were 4th statistically - they could move up. UCLA finished 5th overall, but 8th in CAPP - regression?
Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):
1. Oregon 115.9
2. Washington State 112.1
3. Washington 107.1
4. USC 103.3
5. Cal 101.2
6. Arizona State 100.6
7. Arizona 98.7
8. Oregon State 90.7
9. UCLA 90.5
10. Stanford 79.9
I'm surprised ASU ranked so low, barely above average. Outside of Stanford, there were no horrible offenses. Even UCLA, who I thought would have been worse, has a respectable score for 9th place. The Pac 10, who used to be known for ALL offense-NO defense play, had no absolutely outstanding offenses last year. The run/pass scores are below.
Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):
1. Oregon 148.3
2. Washington 147.2
3. UCLA 116.1
4. Oregon State 114.7
5. USC 109.1
6. Cal 99.6
7. Arizona State 83.1
8. Washington State 71.9
9. Stanford 57.2
10. Arizona 51.1
The Pac 10 had 4 very bad rush offense, though, one of them (Arizona) is understandable due to offensive system. Arizona State was surprisingly low, and will really need to improve that area to stay in the top 3 of the Pac 10.
Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):
1. Washington State 136.1
2. Arizona 127
3. Arizona State 111.5
4. Cal 102.1
5. USC 99.7
6. Oregon 95.9
7. Stanford 93.4
8. Washington 84
9. Oregon State 75.5
10. UCLA 75
So can we officially kill the "PAC 10=PASS PASS PASS ZOMG" theory? Only 4 offenses were any good, and the bottom 3 were awful. USC was right at average, even with a senior QB. Interesting.
Let's go to other side of the LOS.
Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):
1. USC 150.3
2. Oregon State 115.7
3. UCLA 107.2
4. Arizona State 101.8
5. Cal 101.3
6. Arizona 100.9
7. Oregon 99.1
8. Washington State 88.4
9. Stanford 82.7
10. Washington 81.6
See? The Pac 10 was a defense driven conference last year. 6 teams were above average, and Oregon was right there, too. The bottom 3 weren't good, but again, not wretched. Below, as usual, are the run/pass breakouts.
Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):
1.USC 164.9
2. Oregon State 155.3
3. Arizona State 130.3
4. Oregon 109.2
5. UCLA 108.3
6. Arizona 97.4
7. Cal 90.3
8. Washington State 86.6
9. Stanford 78.1
10. Washington 64
The fact is: if you want to be a player in the Pac 10, stop the run. 5 of the top 6 rush defenses in the Pac 10 made a bowl. The top 4 finishers in the final standings are the top 4 in the standings in RDAPP.
Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP:)
1. USC 142.7
2. Cal 109.5
3. UCLA 106.6
4. Arizona 103.3
5. Oregon State 100.9
6. Washington 96.7
7. Oregon 94.2
8. Arizona State 89.7
9. Washington State 89.6
10. Stanford 85.9
Holy parity! Stanford's 85.9 would be better than last in most conferences. Arizona State's low score has to worry Sun Devil fans going forward. Cal rebounded well from a poor 2006 in pass defense to finish 2nd this past season.
Onto the final standings!
Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP)
1. USC 126.8
2. Oregon 107.5
3. Oregon State 103.2
4. Cal 101.3
5. Arizona State 101.2
6. Washington State 100.3
7. Arizona 99.8
8. UCLA 98.9
9. Washington 94.4
10. Stanford 81.3
Using this metric, Arizona State could be in for a couple more losses. They finished 2nd in the Pac 10 standings, but were 5th in CAPP. Cal finished 7th in the Pac 10, but were 4th statistically - they could move up. UCLA finished 5th overall, but 8th in CAPP - regression?
APP Breakdown: Big 10
Well, I've gotten insanely behind, so today and tomorrow, I'll be posting APPs for the major conferences, so on Thursday I can post my major conference predictions. Yowza.
Here is the Big 10 APP Breakdown, without the bells and whistles.
Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):
1. Michigan State 117.8
2. Wisconsin 108.4
3. Illinois 107.9
4. Northwestern 107.5
5. Penn State 105.6
6. Minnesota 104.7
7. Purdue 102.1
8. Ohio State 98.3
9. Michigan 91.2
10. Indiana 87.7
11. Iowa 72.9
I think the shocking thing is Ohio State at 8th, scoring a below average score. They need to improve on that if they want to win a national title. Below are the rushing and passing standings.
Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):
1. Illinois 161.9
2. Michigan State 131.2
3. Ohio State 125.2
4. Penn State 123.4
5. Wisconsin 119.3
6. Minnesota 92.6
7. Michigan 84.5
8. Indiana 73.9
9. Purdue 67.6
10. Iowa 63.8
11. Northwestern 61.8
The Big 10 looks to have had 5 very good rush offenses, then a bunch of horrid run games.
Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):
1. Northwestern 139.7
2. Purdue 127.2
3. Minnesota 113.2
4. Michigan State 108.2
5. Wisconsin 101
6. Indiana 97.4
7. Michigan 95.7
8. Penn State 93.5
9. Iowa 79.6
10. Ohio State 78.6
11. Illinois 67.6
I think this shows that you don't need a great passing attack to win the Big 10. The top 3 teams in the final Big 10 standings ranked 10th, 7th, and 11th, respectively, in POAPP.
Now, onto the defensive side of the ball.
Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):
1. Ohio State 167.5
2. Michigan 124.5
3. Penn State 108.5
4. Iowa 102.8
5. Illinois 97.2
6. Wisconsin 97
7. Purdue 94.6
8. Michigan State 94.3
9. Indiana 91.8
10. Northwestern 87.1
11. Minnesota 75.5
Defense wins in the Big 10. You had 1 completely dominant defense, another very good one, then a log jam from 4-9. Below are the breakouts for rushing D and passing D.
Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):
1. Ohio State 244
2. Penn State 132.8
3. Illinois 118.7
4. Michigan 116
5. Iowa 112.6
6. Wisconsin 99.8
7. Michigan State 93.2
8. Purdue 86.1
9. Northwestern 83.4
10. Indiana 80
11. Minnesota 61.7
The ONLY thing that matters here is the absolute, complete, 100% savagery domination by the Ohio State rush defense. 244? I've never seen a score like that for any portion of APP, ever. Good Lord, that's sick.
Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP):
1. Ohio State 137.3
2. Michigan 131.8
3. Indiana 102.4
4. Purdue 101.3
5. Iowa 96.9
6. Michigan State 95.1
7. Penn State 94.9
8. Wisconsin 94.7
9. Northwestern 90.1
10. Minnesota 89.3
11. Illinois 86.9
I think what's surprising here is that even the bad teams in pass defense weren't awful. Sure, the bottom three scores aren't good, but for being the worst teams in the conference, those are respectable scores. Illinois even has the sick Vontae Davis on the field.
The big shabang is the final standings in the APP, where you can find hints of which teams will improve or regress.
Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP):
1. Ohio State 132.9
2. Michigan 107.9
3. Penn State 107.1
4. Michigan State 106.1
5. Wisconsin 102.7
6. Illinois 102.3
7. Purdue 98.4
8. Northwestern 97.3
9. Minnesota 90.1
10. Indiana 89.8
11. Iowa 87.9
The way to find the movers and shakers are to identify the teams who are 2 or more spots off from where they finished in the Big 10 standings. For instance, I tabbed Michigan State a team on the rise because, while they finished 8th or 9th in the Big 10, they were the 4th best team, statistically. Historically, that means WATCH OUT FOR THE SPARTANS! Also, it works the other way. Iowa finished 6th in the conference, but were the worst team, statistically. Look out below! You can find a couple others in there, too.
Here is the Big 10 APP Breakdown, without the bells and whistles.
Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):
1. Michigan State 117.8
2. Wisconsin 108.4
3. Illinois 107.9
4. Northwestern 107.5
5. Penn State 105.6
6. Minnesota 104.7
7. Purdue 102.1
8. Ohio State 98.3
9. Michigan 91.2
10. Indiana 87.7
11. Iowa 72.9
I think the shocking thing is Ohio State at 8th, scoring a below average score. They need to improve on that if they want to win a national title. Below are the rushing and passing standings.
Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):
1. Illinois 161.9
2. Michigan State 131.2
3. Ohio State 125.2
4. Penn State 123.4
5. Wisconsin 119.3
6. Minnesota 92.6
7. Michigan 84.5
8. Indiana 73.9
9. Purdue 67.6
10. Iowa 63.8
11. Northwestern 61.8
The Big 10 looks to have had 5 very good rush offenses, then a bunch of horrid run games.
Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):
1. Northwestern 139.7
2. Purdue 127.2
3. Minnesota 113.2
4. Michigan State 108.2
5. Wisconsin 101
6. Indiana 97.4
7. Michigan 95.7
8. Penn State 93.5
9. Iowa 79.6
10. Ohio State 78.6
11. Illinois 67.6
I think this shows that you don't need a great passing attack to win the Big 10. The top 3 teams in the final Big 10 standings ranked 10th, 7th, and 11th, respectively, in POAPP.
Now, onto the defensive side of the ball.
Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):
1. Ohio State 167.5
2. Michigan 124.5
3. Penn State 108.5
4. Iowa 102.8
5. Illinois 97.2
6. Wisconsin 97
7. Purdue 94.6
8. Michigan State 94.3
9. Indiana 91.8
10. Northwestern 87.1
11. Minnesota 75.5
Defense wins in the Big 10. You had 1 completely dominant defense, another very good one, then a log jam from 4-9. Below are the breakouts for rushing D and passing D.
Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):
1. Ohio State 244
2. Penn State 132.8
3. Illinois 118.7
4. Michigan 116
5. Iowa 112.6
6. Wisconsin 99.8
7. Michigan State 93.2
8. Purdue 86.1
9. Northwestern 83.4
10. Indiana 80
11. Minnesota 61.7
The ONLY thing that matters here is the absolute, complete, 100% savagery domination by the Ohio State rush defense. 244? I've never seen a score like that for any portion of APP, ever. Good Lord, that's sick.
Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP):
1. Ohio State 137.3
2. Michigan 131.8
3. Indiana 102.4
4. Purdue 101.3
5. Iowa 96.9
6. Michigan State 95.1
7. Penn State 94.9
8. Wisconsin 94.7
9. Northwestern 90.1
10. Minnesota 89.3
11. Illinois 86.9
I think what's surprising here is that even the bad teams in pass defense weren't awful. Sure, the bottom three scores aren't good, but for being the worst teams in the conference, those are respectable scores. Illinois even has the sick Vontae Davis on the field.
The big shabang is the final standings in the APP, where you can find hints of which teams will improve or regress.
Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP):
1. Ohio State 132.9
2. Michigan 107.9
3. Penn State 107.1
4. Michigan State 106.1
5. Wisconsin 102.7
6. Illinois 102.3
7. Purdue 98.4
8. Northwestern 97.3
9. Minnesota 90.1
10. Indiana 89.8
11. Iowa 87.9
The way to find the movers and shakers are to identify the teams who are 2 or more spots off from where they finished in the Big 10 standings. For instance, I tabbed Michigan State a team on the rise because, while they finished 8th or 9th in the Big 10, they were the 4th best team, statistically. Historically, that means WATCH OUT FOR THE SPARTANS! Also, it works the other way. Iowa finished 6th in the conference, but were the worst team, statistically. Look out below! You can find a couple others in there, too.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
APP Breakdown: SEC
Well, I've gone and wasted my summer by not writing here at the CFB Authority, and now, I'm down to 4 weeks until kickoff. I have all the APP Breakdowns to get to the public, I have my predictions out and about, and I have some other features before August 28th, too. Ouch. Maybe I'll cowboy up and do all of it.
For those of you who may not have followed the APP last year when I debuted it, here is a link that explains what APP is (and it's branches) and the 2006 SEC APP. I don't feel like explaining it in depth again, but basically, it takes the conference games of a team, looks at how they performed against those specific team in relation to their averages. It's better than straight statistics because it takes schedule strength into account.
Let's get onto the APP Breakdown for the best conference in the country, the Southeastern Conference.
Here is the SEC's Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):
1. Florida 119.9
2. Arkansas 117.7
3. Kentucky 110.5
4. LSU 110.4
5. Tennessee 101.5
6. South Carolina 100.6
7. Georgia 98.5
8. Ole Miss 98.4
9. Alabama 97.9
10. Auburn 88.1
11. Vanderbilt 80.5
12. Miss State 77.3
I think the most interesting note here is that Georgia ranked 7th in the conference offensively, and was a tad below average. Bulldog fans are incredibly hyped about their season, and rightfully so. However, they need to improve their overall offensive efficiency to win the conference. Also, notice Ole Miss at 8th. I find that surprising, as their offense didn't score a lot. With the additions of Enrique Davis, Jevan Snead, and Houston Nutt, I think they'll punch it in the endzone far more often.
Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):
BREAKING NEWS COMING OFF THE WIRE AS WE SPEAK ..... Arkansas could run the ball really, really well! This isn't surprising, groundbreaking, or even interesting. We all knew this before the 2007 season even kicked off. I was surprised, however, that LSU was second in the conference, and it wasn't that close. Florida was 3rd, Auburn 4th, and Georgia 5th. For Arkansas, imagine how their statistics will change without McFadden and Jones.
Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):
The Gamecocks had a wretched 64 ROAPP, which means they performed 36% below average! I would say the two big reasons were playcalling and the offensive line. Cory Boyd was actually a very solid back in the conference, but you know the Ol' Ball Coach: he becomes the Ol' Throw Coach. Miss State was 11th and Tennessee was actually 10th. I'm very worried about the Gamecock offense, because Blake Mitchell was a decent QB last year, and with NO quarterback and losing a good RB, what can they do?
Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):
The Cats have always been known to toss the pigskin around, and with a great collegiate QB in Andre Woodson and a nice package of receivers, why not keep it up? They scored a 133.2, so they were in the "great" category. They do lose Woodson and Burton, as well as a receiving RB in Rafael Little. South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee were 2nd-4th, respectively.
Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):
The only player who regressed more over his career than Brandon Cox was Georgia Tech legend Reggie Ball. Cox was horrific his last season at the Barn, so you can see why Ears went out to find a new coordinator and a new system. Auburn scored a 72.2, so they were bad, but not the worst ever. Vanderbilt was 11th, and Arkansas was 10th. Mississippi State was also bad here, too.
Now, the other part of the equation is the SEC's Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):
1. Auburn 129.1
2. LSU 112.2
3. Georgia 110.3
4. Miss State 104.3
5. Vanderbilt 102.8
6. Alabama 100.5
7. Florida 97.2
8. South Carolina 96.5
9. Kentucky 91.5
10. Arkansas 90.8
11. Tennessee 90.1
12. Ole Miss 88.8
Before I highlight any team scores, I want to point out that the SEC's disparity in defense from top to bottom is much smaller is than the offensive disparity. There is a 42.4 point difference between the #2 offense and the #12 offense. However, defensively, there is only a 23.3 point difference from the #2 defense to the bottom. Auburn was the only great defense in the conference last year, which is a big reason people are picking them to win the West.
Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):
I think if people were going to bet on this beforehand, they would have chosen LSU. However, the Bayou Bengals didn't finish first, nor second, nor third. Auburn returns 5 of their front 7, but the two losses were Quentin Groves and Pat Sims - four huge shoes to fill. Still, I expect them back at #1 in 2008. Florida finished 2nd (everybody threw on them), Alabama was 3rd, and LSU was 4th. All four scored 120.6 or better.
Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):
Nice to see you again. When you can't run the ball, nor stop the run, in the SEC, you're bound to be in trouble. South Carolina definitely was last year. Ole Miss and Kentucky were the only other two schools comparable in rush defense issues. Carolina can blame some of the issues on injuries, and they get a boatload of front 7 players back in 2008. If they improve here, watch out.
Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):
No weaknesses on the Auburn defense in 2007. They stopped the run cold, and also, with the benefit of two draft picks in Jon Wilhite (missed some games) and Patrick Lee at cornerback. Eric Brock was also steady at safety. Jerraud Powers and Zac Etheridge also played very well. South Carolina, Miss State, and Georgia also scored highly.
Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):
I think I expected Tennessee to score poorly, but didn't realize they'd be last. Inexperience and an odd affinity for giving 20 yard cushions are the reasons for this. The Vols scored an 80.9, which isn't THAT bad for being the worst pass defense, but it's still far below average. Even jumping up to average would mean wonders for the team. Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama were almost as bad.
Now that we've broken it down, the most important aspect of this is to look at the Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP) and the 2007 conference finish in parenthesis:
1. LSU 111.3 (1st)
2t. Auburn 108.6 (4th)
2t. Florida 108.6 (5th)
4. Georgia 104.4 (3rd)
5. Arkansas 104.3 (6th)
6. Kentucky 101 (10th)
7. Alabama 99.2 (8th)
8. South Carolina 98.6 (9th)
9. Tennessee 95.8 (2nd)
10. Ole Miss 93.6 (12th)
11. Vanderbilt 91.7 (11th)
12. Miss State 90.8 (7th)
What you need to understand is that any team more than a spot off either direction either overperformed or underperformed. For example, Tennessee finished 2nd in the SEC, but was 9th (!!!) statistically, hinting at a regression in record in 2008. On the flipside, Auburn finished 4th, but was 2nd statistically, so expect a better record in 2008. Miss State is a team you need to bet on regressing, as well. They were the worst statistical team in the conference, but benefited from a lot of close wins.
Remember, there are other variables to take into consideration: close games, draft losses, returning starters, turnovers, and schedule. But this gives a nice little look into who could really surprise us in terms of 2008 play. I'm worried about my Vols.
6.
For those of you who may not have followed the APP last year when I debuted it, here is a link that explains what APP is (and it's branches) and the 2006 SEC APP. I don't feel like explaining it in depth again, but basically, it takes the conference games of a team, looks at how they performed against those specific team in relation to their averages. It's better than straight statistics because it takes schedule strength into account.
Let's get onto the APP Breakdown for the best conference in the country, the Southeastern Conference.
Here is the SEC's Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):
1. Florida 119.9
2. Arkansas 117.7
3. Kentucky 110.5
4. LSU 110.4
5. Tennessee 101.5
6. South Carolina 100.6
7. Georgia 98.5
8. Ole Miss 98.4
9. Alabama 97.9
10. Auburn 88.1
11. Vanderbilt 80.5
12. Miss State 77.3
I think the most interesting note here is that Georgia ranked 7th in the conference offensively, and was a tad below average. Bulldog fans are incredibly hyped about their season, and rightfully so. However, they need to improve their overall offensive efficiency to win the conference. Also, notice Ole Miss at 8th. I find that surprising, as their offense didn't score a lot. With the additions of Enrique Davis, Jevan Snead, and Houston Nutt, I think they'll punch it in the endzone far more often.
Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):
BREAKING NEWS COMING OFF THE WIRE AS WE SPEAK ..... Arkansas could run the ball really, really well! This isn't surprising, groundbreaking, or even interesting. We all knew this before the 2007 season even kicked off. I was surprised, however, that LSU was second in the conference, and it wasn't that close. Florida was 3rd, Auburn 4th, and Georgia 5th. For Arkansas, imagine how their statistics will change without McFadden and Jones.
Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):
The Gamecocks had a wretched 64 ROAPP, which means they performed 36% below average! I would say the two big reasons were playcalling and the offensive line. Cory Boyd was actually a very solid back in the conference, but you know the Ol' Ball Coach: he becomes the Ol' Throw Coach. Miss State was 11th and Tennessee was actually 10th. I'm very worried about the Gamecock offense, because Blake Mitchell was a decent QB last year, and with NO quarterback and losing a good RB, what can they do?
Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):
The Cats have always been known to toss the pigskin around, and with a great collegiate QB in Andre Woodson and a nice package of receivers, why not keep it up? They scored a 133.2, so they were in the "great" category. They do lose Woodson and Burton, as well as a receiving RB in Rafael Little. South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee were 2nd-4th, respectively.
Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):
The only player who regressed more over his career than Brandon Cox was Georgia Tech legend Reggie Ball. Cox was horrific his last season at the Barn, so you can see why Ears went out to find a new coordinator and a new system. Auburn scored a 72.2, so they were bad, but not the worst ever. Vanderbilt was 11th, and Arkansas was 10th. Mississippi State was also bad here, too.
Now, the other part of the equation is the SEC's Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):
1. Auburn 129.1
2. LSU 112.2
3. Georgia 110.3
4. Miss State 104.3
5. Vanderbilt 102.8
6. Alabama 100.5
7. Florida 97.2
8. South Carolina 96.5
9. Kentucky 91.5
10. Arkansas 90.8
11. Tennessee 90.1
12. Ole Miss 88.8
Before I highlight any team scores, I want to point out that the SEC's disparity in defense from top to bottom is much smaller is than the offensive disparity. There is a 42.4 point difference between the #2 offense and the #12 offense. However, defensively, there is only a 23.3 point difference from the #2 defense to the bottom. Auburn was the only great defense in the conference last year, which is a big reason people are picking them to win the West.
Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):
I think if people were going to bet on this beforehand, they would have chosen LSU. However, the Bayou Bengals didn't finish first, nor second, nor third. Auburn returns 5 of their front 7, but the two losses were Quentin Groves and Pat Sims - four huge shoes to fill. Still, I expect them back at #1 in 2008. Florida finished 2nd (everybody threw on them), Alabama was 3rd, and LSU was 4th. All four scored 120.6 or better.
Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):
Nice to see you again. When you can't run the ball, nor stop the run, in the SEC, you're bound to be in trouble. South Carolina definitely was last year. Ole Miss and Kentucky were the only other two schools comparable in rush defense issues. Carolina can blame some of the issues on injuries, and they get a boatload of front 7 players back in 2008. If they improve here, watch out.
Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):
No weaknesses on the Auburn defense in 2007. They stopped the run cold, and also, with the benefit of two draft picks in Jon Wilhite (missed some games) and Patrick Lee at cornerback. Eric Brock was also steady at safety. Jerraud Powers and Zac Etheridge also played very well. South Carolina, Miss State, and Georgia also scored highly.
Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):
I think I expected Tennessee to score poorly, but didn't realize they'd be last. Inexperience and an odd affinity for giving 20 yard cushions are the reasons for this. The Vols scored an 80.9, which isn't THAT bad for being the worst pass defense, but it's still far below average. Even jumping up to average would mean wonders for the team. Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama were almost as bad.
Now that we've broken it down, the most important aspect of this is to look at the Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP) and the 2007 conference finish in parenthesis:
1. LSU 111.3 (1st)
2t. Auburn 108.6 (4th)
2t. Florida 108.6 (5th)
4. Georgia 104.4 (3rd)
5. Arkansas 104.3 (6th)
6. Kentucky 101 (10th)
7. Alabama 99.2 (8th)
8. South Carolina 98.6 (9th)
9. Tennessee 95.8 (2nd)
10. Ole Miss 93.6 (12th)
11. Vanderbilt 91.7 (11th)
12. Miss State 90.8 (7th)
What you need to understand is that any team more than a spot off either direction either overperformed or underperformed. For example, Tennessee finished 2nd in the SEC, but was 9th (!!!) statistically, hinting at a regression in record in 2008. On the flipside, Auburn finished 4th, but was 2nd statistically, so expect a better record in 2008. Miss State is a team you need to bet on regressing, as well. They were the worst statistical team in the conference, but benefited from a lot of close wins.
Remember, there are other variables to take into consideration: close games, draft losses, returning starters, turnovers, and schedule. But this gives a nice little look into who could really surprise us in terms of 2008 play. I'm worried about my Vols.
6.
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