Monday, September 17, 2007

Money Making Monday: Week 4

So far, I'm making money, but it's a slow grind. There will certainly be a week where I make a big splash. Still, I'm up so far.

YTD: 19-16 +1.4u

Kentucky +7 @ Arkansas

Kentucky will be able to throw all over the Razorbacks, and the Hogs will run all over the Cats. The O/U is out yet, but when it is, I'm hitting the over. Arkansas's defense isn't any better than Louisville's, and while their offense as a whole isn't as good as the Cards', their run game is out of this world. I think Kentucky with a senior QB can go into Fayetteville and not get rattled. A touchdown is a big gap when I think the visiting Wildcats could win outright.

Georgia Tech -3 @ Virginia
Tashard Choice might be out for this game, but I still love the number. Virginia is a wretched team with a wretched offense. They only scored 22 on a bad North Carolina defense, and this Ramblin Wreck defense is for real. Honestly, if Georgia Tech only scores 14 points, they should cover. GT allowed over 400 yards passing to Boston College, but BC has one of the best QBs in the country with a dynamic offense. BC still only scored 24. I like the under in this game, whenever it comes out.

Connecticut @ Pittsburgh -7
This has moved to 8.5, so I feel good about the bet. Pitt's defense has looked really good so far, which is something they didn't have last season. Connecticut barely beat Temple, and we saw with Navy that if you struggle with Temple, you end up being pretty average. UConn loves to run the ball, and Pitt held a very good running Spartan team to 2.8 yards per carry. Hell, UConn ran for only 3.2 ypc against Temple. Blowout alert.

San Jose State +1 @ Utah State
This has gone to +3.5, so I'm not feeling too confident. I guess I'm expecting SJSU to play like they did last season. Utah State is awful, but not as awful as I anticipated. Still, this is essentially a pick at the number I got, and I think SJSU is good enough to win 6/10 times. Isn't it weird to have a write up on a game like this?

Purdue -11.5 @ Minnesota

This moved to -14 within minutes, so I feel damn good about my number. Minnesota is absolutely awful defensively, and Purdue will put up 45+, maybe even 60. Whatever the O/U is, I'll be inclined to get the over. The Gophers are awful - gave up 42 to FAU! Jesus, they have given up OVER 30 points to every team they played - FAU, Miami (OH), and Bowling Green. Two MAC teams and a Sun Belt team. Ouch.

Arizona @ California -17

Revenge game for the Bears, and we saw what they did in the revenge game with Tennessee. Arizona was JUST beaten by New Mexico 29-27 on Saturday. Cal's offense, obviously, is on another level or 8 than UNM. Arizona's offense is still bad, but now inconsistently bad. Cal's defense is definitely a question, but I don't see them, with all the incentive to beat the hell out of Arizona, letting up. Arizona won on a fluke last year, and cost Cal the Pac 10 title. Cal rolls, I think.

Duke @ Navy -10

I've been bitten betting on Navy so far, but this one seems like a good bet. Duke was completely demolished by UConn on September 1st, and UConn is the only team that runs close to as much as Navy. Navy's offense is a lot better than UConn's, so I ecpect Navy to rack up the rushing yards and keep the already awful Duke offense on the sideline. Yes, Duke won a game, but 10 points? C'mon!

Check link at left as usual for updated slate.


nonplussed said...

Not to be picky, but...

Arizona did not cost Cal a Pac 10 title last year. They cost them the outright title. People seem to forget that Cal and USC were co-champs last year.

Doug Coffin said...


Only in crazy Pac 10 country can two teams tie when one beat the other. If you're a Cal fan, you should be ashamed for claiming a co-title, when you lost head to head to USC.

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