HUGE EDITOR'S EDIT: If you read this, do not play the UNLV line because I said so. I found out that UNLV QB Rocky Hinds could be out for the season, and it happened over a week ago. I ALWAYS do my research, except this time.
UNLV (-6') @ Utah State
UNLV was better than their 2-10 record last year, and they return 14 starters, including Rocky Hinds, who was good enough to be recruited and committed to USC. Steele has UNLV as a 14 point favorite, so that's a 7 1/2 point margin. Utah State looks to be one of the worst 10 teams in the nation, and they WERE as bad as their 1-11 record indicates. There is 1 worry here, though, and that's the fact that Utah State beat UNLV in Aggieland in 2005. Are the teams the same? Not even close, but it's something to remember.
Central Florida @ North Carolina State (-7')
I love the movement here. Started around NC State -9', but has moved my way. The Pack will be one of the more improved teams in the ACC, and will fight for bowl eligibility. NC State was on the absolute worst side of variance I've ever seen. -5 CGVR, -11 TO, and were actually ranked 7th in CAPP for me at 100.7. All this means a turnaround for the Wolfpack. Plus, I'm a huge fan of Coach O'Brian. UCF had a good season in 2005, but were awful in 2006. UCF lost by 45 at home to Pittsburgh last year, and I think this NC State team is better than that. Steele has NC State as a 14 point favorite, as well.
San Jose State @ Arizona State (-14')
Another line that moved my way, which can sometimes worry you. You hate to see that, but you love it. This is more of a gut play, as Steele has ASU favored by 17'. Still, I think the Sun Devils have way too many weapons on offense for the Spartans to have a chance. Their defense allowed 4.1 ypc last year, as well as a 61.5% completion percentage. I'm sure Rudy Carpenter+Dennis Erickson are licking their chops at that. Yes, San Jose State have good players at QB and RB, but Arizona State, while lacking in defense, should be able to hold SJSU to 24 or less. ASU, in my mind, is a lock to score 40+ in opening week. ASU is somewhere around 3rd or 4th place in the deep Pac 10. I might add the over to this, too. We'll see.
I'm sure I'll add more as we get closer to Saturday, and I'll keep the post updated, so check back.