APP Breakdown: Big 10

Well, I've gotten insanely behind, so today and tomorrow, I'll be posting APPs for the major conferences, so on Thursday I can post my major conference predictions. Yowza.

Here is the Big 10 APP Breakdown, without the bells and whistles.

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Michigan State 117.8
2. Wisconsin 108.4
3. Illinois 107.9
4. Northwestern 107.5
5. Penn State 105.6
6. Minnesota 104.7
7. Purdue 102.1
8. Ohio State 98.3
9. Michigan 91.2
10. Indiana 87.7
11. Iowa 72.9

I think the shocking thing is Ohio State at 8th, scoring a below average score. They need to improve on that if they want to win a national title. Below are the rushing and passing standings.

Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):

1. Illinois 161.9
2. Michigan State 131.2
3. Ohio State 125.2
4. Penn State 123.4
5. Wisconsin 119.3
6. Minnesota 92.6
7. Michigan 84.5
8. Indiana 73.9
9. Purdue 67.6
10. Iowa 63.8
11. Northwestern 61.8

The Big 10 looks to have had 5 very good rush offenses, then a bunch of horrid run games.

Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):

1. Northwestern 139.7
2. Purdue 127.2
3. Minnesota 113.2
4. Michigan State 108.2
5. Wisconsin 101
6. Indiana 97.4
7. Michigan 95.7
8. Penn State 93.5
9. Iowa 79.6
10. Ohio State 78.6
11. Illinois 67.6

I think this shows that you don't need a great passing attack to win the Big 10. The top 3 teams in the final Big 10 standings ranked 10th, 7th, and 11th, respectively, in POAPP.

Now, onto the defensive side of the ball.

Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Ohio State 167.5
2. Michigan 124.5
3. Penn State 108.5
4. Iowa 102.8
5. Illinois 97.2
6. Wisconsin 97
7. Purdue 94.6
8. Michigan State 94.3
9. Indiana 91.8
10. Northwestern 87.1
11. Minnesota 75.5

Defense wins in the Big 10. You had 1 completely dominant defense, another very good one, then a log jam from 4-9. Below are the breakouts for rushing D and passing D.

Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):

1. Ohio State 244
2. Penn State 132.8
3. Illinois 118.7
4. Michigan 116
5. Iowa 112.6
6. Wisconsin 99.8
7. Michigan State 93.2
8. Purdue 86.1
9. Northwestern 83.4
10. Indiana 80
11. Minnesota 61.7

The ONLY thing that matters here is the absolute, complete, 100% savagery domination by the Ohio State rush defense. 244? I've never seen a score like that for any portion of APP, ever. Good Lord, that's sick.

Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP):

1. Ohio State 137.3
2. Michigan 131.8
3. Indiana 102.4
4. Purdue 101.3
5. Iowa 96.9
6. Michigan State 95.1
7. Penn State 94.9
8. Wisconsin 94.7
9. Northwestern 90.1
10. Minnesota 89.3
11. Illinois 86.9

I think what's surprising here is that even the bad teams in pass defense weren't awful. Sure, the bottom three scores aren't good, but for being the worst teams in the conference, those are respectable scores. Illinois even has the sick Vontae Davis on the field.

The big shabang is the final standings in the APP, where you can find hints of which teams will improve or regress.

Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP):

1. Ohio State 132.9
2. Michigan 107.9
3. Penn State 107.1
4. Michigan State 106.1
5. Wisconsin 102.7
6. Illinois 102.3
7. Purdue 98.4
8. Northwestern 97.3
9. Minnesota 90.1
10. Indiana 89.8
11. Iowa 87.9

The way to find the movers and shakers are to identify the teams who are 2 or more spots off from where they finished in the Big 10 standings. For instance, I tabbed Michigan State a team on the rise because, while they finished 8th or 9th in the Big 10, they were the 4th best team, statistically. Historically, that means WATCH OUT FOR THE SPARTANS! Also, it works the other way. Iowa finished 6th in the conference, but were the worst team, statistically. Look out below! You can find a couple others in there, too.