2007 CGVRs

If you've followed my blogs for even a month ... ever ... then you know that Close Game Variance Ratio is something that I very much believe in. It's basically Phil Steele's idea that I gave a name to. CGVRs are calculated by finding the net ratio a team built in close games. If Team X had 4 wins of 8 points or less, and 2 losses of 8 points or fewer, they had a +2 CGVR. If a team has a +2 CGVR or higher, you can confidently predict that they will NOT improve their record. If a team has a -2 CGVR or worse, you can expect them to improve their record the following season. I've added in the 2006 outcomes to the ol' database, so from 2001-2006, here is how accurate the CGVR machine has been.

+4 and up - Has occurred 43 times, with 93% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season
+3 - Has occurred 30 times, with 73% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season
+2 - Has occurred 62 times, with 68% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season

Does your team fall into the parameters?

Hawaii +5 (12-1)
Mississippi State +4 (8-5)
Virginia +4 (9-4)
Oregon State +4 (9-4)
Tulsa +4 (10-4)
Tennessee +3 (10-4)
Northwestern +3 (6-6)
Kansas +3 (12-1)
Arizona State +3 (10-3)
East Carolina +3 (8-5)
Memphis +3 (7-6)
Toledo +3 (5-7)
Florida Atlantic +3 (8-5)
Kentucky +2 (8-5)
LSU +2 (12-2)
Wisconsin +2 (9-4)
Michigan +2 (9-4)
Texas +2 (10-3)
Missouri +2 (12-2)
Boston College +2 (11-3)
NC State +2 (5-7)
Louisiana Monroe +2 (6-6)
Connecticut +2 (9-4)
New Mexico +2 (9-4)
San Diego St +2 (4-8)
Bowling Green +2 (8-5)
Miami, Oh +2 (6-7)
Temple +2 (4-8)

If your team is listed above, be afraaaaid, be verrrry afraaaaaid. Now, the other side of the coin: negative CGVRs.

-4 and worse - Has occurred 29 times, with 86% of the teams having the same or better record the next season
-3 - Has occurred 46 times, with 72% of the teams having the same or better record the next season
-2 - Has occurred 62 times, with 71% of the teams having the same or better record the next season

Again, here are the teams that apply:

Minnesota -5 (1-11)
Washington -5 (4-9)
SMU -5 (1-11)
Michigan State -4 (7-6)
Vanderbilt -3 (5-7)
Maryland -3 (6-7)
North Carolina -3 (4-8)
UCLA -3 (6-7)
UNLV -3 (2-10)
Northern Illinois -3 (2-10)
Kent State -3 (3-9)
Louisiana Lafayette -3 (3-9)
Alabama -2 (7-6)
Kansas State -2 (5-7)
Florida State -2 (7-6)
Miami -2 (5-7)
Duke -2 (1-11)
Arizona -2 (5-7)
TCU -2 (8-5)
Colorado State -2 (3-9)
Marshall -2 (3-9)
Nevada -2 (6-7)
Idaho -2 (1-11)
Utah State -2 (2-10)
W. Michigan -2 (5-7)

If your team is listed above, you can hold out hope that the stats are in your favor. As always, these numbers are only tools, and are not the ONLY thing to look at. But you can still amaze your friends this autumn.