Saturday, June 23, 2007

APP Breakdown: The Big 12

It's the Bigggggg Tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelve!!! Make sure to properly enunciate that 'e' in Tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelve, so you can accurately portray Dan Hawkins. The best way to say it is to try and say "eel" (yes, the slithery, slippery, Urban Meyer-looking sea creature) between the 'tw' and 've.' This might be the dumbest couple of sentences anyone has written anywhere - ever. Anyway, we head onto the B12 APP Breakdown. Remember, these stats are based on the 8 conference games of the 12 members, comparing the yardage gained and yardage allowed compared only to the teams they played. In a conference like the Big 12, where not all teams play each other, this stat is a better comparison than by just ranking teams by total yards. A score of 110.3 means that the team performed 10.3% better than average. Make sense?

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Texas Tech 121.9
2. Oklahoma State 112.0
3. Nebraska 110.7
4. Missouri 107.6
5. Texas 103.8
6. Texas A&M 103.6
7. Kansas 98.2
8. Oklahoma 92.3
9. Baylor 90.7
10. Kansas State 88.6
11. Colorado 88.5
12. Iowa State 82.8

The Red Raiders at #1 should never be a surprise, considering that Allied Forces in World War II hired Mike Leach as an air attack consultant. There really aren't many surprises on this list. However, an interesting note or two about how to succeed int he Big 12: Of the six teams with below average to bad offenses, only 2 of them made a bowl; of the six teams with above average to good offenses, all 6 made a bowl. Maybe having a competent offense is all you need in the Big 12 to make a bowl game.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

Extremely surprising, at least for me. Their 155.4 score is amazing, but I'm even more amazed at the rushing attack depth in the conference: the six teams above a 100 score were WAY above that number - Colorado (126.3), Kansas (113), Nebraska (114.6), Oklahoma (123.9), Texas A&M (146.7), and the aforementioned Okies. I think it's obvious to say that there is a large gap between the rushing have's and the rushing have nots. The Cowboys return Dontrell Savage, Bobby Reid, and Keith Totson, so I expect more of the same from their rushing offense this upcoming season.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa. This score is abysmal. 35.6?!?! Take into account that there are two other rushing offenses in the Big 12 that would have finished last in almost every conference (Texas Tech 46.5 and Iowa State 64.2), if not for Baylor's complete lack of ability. The Bears could throw, for damn sure, but they couldn't muster ANYTHING. They actually lose their top rusher, and return a guy who averaged 3.9 yards per rush. Please do worse than 35.6, I'll be so happy.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

"Yeah, real shocking, Doug. Thanks for the mind numbing truth." I hear you all the way over here. Yes, Tech throws it, we all know. Too bad they don't run the ball worth a damn. Missouri and Baylor finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively. I was surprised that Missouri was so good at passing the ball, but so bad at running it. With a better mix in 2007, their offense could get scary. Texas and Nebraska fared well with a 108.3, but Colt McCoy didn't light the world on fire in conference, contrary to popular belief.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

The Buffs really only had 1 terrible aspect of play in 2006, and here it is. Their rush offense was good, rush defense was decent, and their pass defense was above average. However, the downfall of this team was the poor pass play in conference. I truly believe that if they can even get decent output from the QBs and WRs, they could challenge for 2nd in the conference. Wait wait wait, I know finishing 2nd in the B12 North isn't anything worthwhile, but when you're 2-10, it might be. Oklahoma was 2nd to last in POAPP, which might not have been surprising, but it is definitely telling. As admirable as Paul Thompson's play was, they still stunk passing the ball in conference. Give Sam Bradford all spring, all summer, and the first 2 weeks of fall, and on that note alone, I think Oklahoma could jump from their 2006 score of 70 to 90 or better in 2007. What does that do? Makes them an even bigger force in the conference.

As I mentioned before, it seems that if you have an above average offense in the Big 12, you'll make yourself bowl eligible. Let's see if that holds true as we look at Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Oklahoma 148.1
2. Texas A&M 114.9
3. Texas 109.1
4. Colorado 103.2
5. Texas Tech 102.3
6. Kansas State 99.6
7. Missouri 98.0
8. Oklahoma State 94.1
9t. Nebraska 93.1
9t. Iowa State 93.1
11. Kansas 86.3
12. Baylor 83.5

Wow - Oklahoma was head and shoulders above the rest of the conference on the defensive side of the ball. The Aggies were good, but still around 33 percentage points worse. Nebraska's finish at 9th is a little surprising, considering the talent and coaching in Lincoln. Zack Bowman could help them improve in 2007. Texas Tech scoring a 102.3 is also surprising - I was in the camp that believed the Red Raiders thought defense was nap time. Ahhhh, naps.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

Whoawhoaweeewhoa (six points for Borat reference) - Texas scored a 197.8, which means they held their opponents to almost HALF of their rushing totals. Oklahoma scored 161.9, which would have been 1st in most conferences, but Texas just demolished everyone in their path. My God, boys, let them have some mercy yards or something! Texas A&M, Nebraska, and Kansas (surprisingly) scored very well in RDAPP, as well.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Hello again, cuddly Bears. Bears are supposed to be massive creatures who could eat me in a mere moment, can roar with the best of them, but have a knack for honey and picka-nicka baskets. But you, you cuddly Bears, are no more frightening nor intimidating than the Care Bears. Your big uglies are more like big cuddlies. Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Iowa State were all kind of jumbled together in the "we suck, but not bad enough to be the Bears" area.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

Another dominating performance from the Sooners. Again, the Aggies were 2nd, but 29 percentage points off. This is kind of scary, considering Oklahoma returns around 47 starters in their secondary. If the BOOOOOOMERRRRRR SOOOOOONERRRRRS can get a solid pass rush, teams may abandon the forward pass like it was 1923. All in all, there were 7 teams with scores higher than 100.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

Not a terribly Stanford-Baylor-like performance, but bad nonetheless. They scored a 73.4, and Nebraska was 11th at 79.7. Zack Bowman will DEFINITELY help them improve this upcoming season. Texas was was in the bottom three as well, and they had some draft picks in Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin back there. I'm not sure they were good picks, now that I think about it. Can Aqib Talib make everyone better around him at Kansas?

Let's combine all this insanity together to find out who, statistically, was the best team in the Big 12 conference season. Total Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Oklahoma 120.2
2. Texas Tech 112.1
3. Texas A&M 109.3
4. Texas 106.5
5. Oklahoma State 103.1
6. Missouri 102.8
7. Nebraska 101.9
8. Colorado 95.9
9. Kansas State 94.1
10. Kansas 92.3
11. Iowa State 88.0
12. Baylor 87.1

Well, well, well. The top 5 teams were ALL from the Big 12 South. That division is going to be brutal in 2007. Ouch. Kansas State made a bowl? Based on *JUST THIS TOOL* - Kansas State could regress, Kansas could regress, Iowa State will still suck, Tech and A&M should improve, and the right team won the conference.

We still have the ACC and Big East conferences left, plus swing players for the other 5 BCS conferences. Continue to visit, as with each passing day, we're getting closer to football season, and more entries from me. I know you're literally foaming at the mouth.

No comments: