Best Damn Predictions in the Land: SEC

I'm moving APP Breakdowns to tomorrow so I can officially get my predictions on the interwebs highway, as well as "Money Making Monday (Thursday Edition)" and the Immersion Effect.

No waiting, full throttle forward - SEC Predictions.

SEC East

1.

People are hesitant to throw their hat in the ring for the Florida Gators this year due to the still iffy defensive backfield situation. It didn't help that 47 more young Gators got hurt. However, I have one question for you. HAVE YOU LOOKED AT THEIR SEC SCHEDULE? They have 2 toss-ups in a road game at Tennessee and the World's Largest Orson Swindle Party with Georgia. Yes, they do have LSU, but it's in the Swamp, and Florida will be 5-7 point favorites. Thusly, I have the Gators pegged for 7-1 in conference, and representing the East in Atlanta.

2.

With the blinding spotlight fixated on Athens and Gainesville, the Vols are under the radar. This team won the East last year, and was one Aingean toss within a conference title. Pundits and fans alike point to the loss of Ainge and Jerod Mayo, as well as the addition of new coordinator Dave Clawson, as reasons to sell the Vols short. But let me tell you this: while Jon Crompton may not complete 67% of his passes and will have more INTs than Ainge, he'll make that offense more dangerous. He has a bigger cannon than Ainge, a healthier pinky, and has more wheels to make plays happen with his legs. The Vols have a tough SEC road though: v. Florida, @ Auburn, @ Georgia, v. Alabama, @ South Carolina. I expect a 6-2 conference record.

3.

Don't buy the hype. Yes, Georgia is insanely good at the skill positions. Yes, their defense is pretty good, too. However, two things have created a great wall between 3rd in the East and the MNC: the offensive line and the schedule. In the SEC, if you don't have a dominant offensive line, you're in for headaches every week. Think you don't need a line against perennial SEC bottom feeder Kentucky? Yeah, have fun picking yourself up off the grass when Jeremy Jarmon is laying on you. Georgia also has the Orson Swindle Party with Florida, a home game against Tennessee, @ Auburn, @ South Carolina, v. Alabama, and @ LSU. I see 3 conference losses, most likely Florida, LSU, and Auburn. This team has the talent to do what Florida did in 2006, though.

4.

The Gamecocks are the Chicago Cubs of the SEC. "Wait until next year" and "We're going to surprise some people this year" ring through Columbia like it was Wrigley Field. I think the term Lovable Losers fits, too, as Steve Spurrier has become a cuddly ol' ball coach, instead of rude ol' ball coach. The Gamecocks have the defense to win a conference title, really, they do. But they still have issues on the offensive line, they have to replace a very underrated RB in Cory Boyd (Mike Davis doesn't cut it, unless you're playing fridges), and I'm not sold on any receiver behind McKinley. Oh, and they no quarterbacks. None, nil, zilch, nada, nien. I believe the Spurriers will beat either UGA, LSU, or UT in Columbia, I also think they'll stumble at either Ole Miss or Kentucky in back to back road games. I see 4-4 this season, but 5-3 or 3-5 are very much in play.

5.

The short road back to irrelevance starts now for Kentucky. It won't be a total embarrassment, because that defense is actually pretty sick. However, Cat fans need to realize that Andre Woodson, Rafael Little, and Keenan Burton were the best QB-RB-WR trio the school has ever produced, and all 3 are gone. Curtis Pulley is gone, too. The Cats have a good offensive line, and two solid running backs, so we'll probably see a change of offensive pace. The defense is where they'll win some games. The defensive line is their best in who knows how long - Jarmon is a star in the making, Myron Pryor and Corey Peters are formidable in the middle. And they have, in my opinion, a future 1st/2nd round draft pick in cornerback Trevard Lindley. He's 6 feet tall, and as a freshman has 12 pbu, then, as a sophomore, had 11 pbu and 3 picks. His partner on the other side, Paul Warford ain't too shabby, either. Still, the offense will take huge strides backwards, and 2-3 conference wins will be the max.

6.

Vanderbilt was actually decent last year. They lost close games against Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee - win one, and they were probably in a bowl. But graduation has left a dearth of SEC starting experience. They have 0 returning starters on the offensive lost, lost their stud wide receiver, and have a QB controversy. Plus, the defense loses leader Jon Goff. Vandy does sport one of the best defensive backfields in the conference - DJ Moore had 83 tackles, 10 pbu, and 6 INTs; Myron Lewis had 12 pbu and 49 tackles; Reshard Langford had 65 tackles, 4.5 tfl, 8 pbu, and 2 INTs; Ryan Hamilton had 68 tackles, 2.5 tfl, and 5 pbu. Still, with only 9 starters returning for the team, they'll struggle to win a game in the SEC.

SEC West

1.

There has been a very common thread this offseason about Auburn. One person will rank them in the top 12 and/or to win the SEC West, and someone else will scream, "BUT THEY HAVE TWO NEW COORDINATORS AND A NEW OFFENSIVE SYSTEM!" Then I come in and say, "That's a long sentence to scream." Anyway, Auburn was better statistically last season than their final record showed. Their defense has NFL talent at every level, and it's deep. Ben Tate and Brad Lester won't wow you at running back, but that tandem gets it done in workman like fashion. They return every offensive line starter, so with a heavy dose of the running game, Kodi Burns and Chris Todd don't have to win games early on. Their conference schedule shapes up nicely, too. Their 3 toughest conference games are at home: LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia. They do travel to Alabama (where the streak will be broken). Auburn will get revenge at Miss State. Auburn will be 7-1 or 6-2, and as long as they beat LSU, 6-2 will win the West.

2.

It took me a very long time to decide between LSU and Alabama for #2. I go with LSU because I think both teams could finish 5-3, with LSU beating Alabama in Death Valley. Another reason: LSU is more likely to go 6-2 than Alabama is. LSU still has boatloads of talent at every position, and I'm probably overreacting to the Perilloux dismissal. Still, you can't feel comfortable with Andrew Hatch, no matter who you have around him. Oh, and what the hell is with the preseason hype for LaFell and Byrd? Yes, they're good, but they need to prove they're top tier receivers. The Tigers have 3 tough road games: @ Florida, @ South Carolina, and @ Auburn. I think they might lose all 3.

3.

The rebuilding continues, and 2008 will be another stepping stone to the West crown. The freshmen, as undoubtedly talented as they can be, are just that: freshmen. You can't expect new SEC players to win the conference. Hell, probably not in 2009, either, as they break in a new QB. 2010 will be the first season the Tide will be favorites to win the West. They'll show great improvement this year, though. Their record just won't show it that much. They will lose 3 conference road games with a couple landmines at home. Their offensive line will be one of the best in the SEC, and Terry Grant is poised for a breakout season. The defense is the worry, though. They have young talent everywhere, but young defensive players get eaten alive in the tough SEC, so I expect some struggles there. 5-3 is almost certain.

4.

The injury to Greg Hardy makes me seriously hesitate to do this, but I'm sticking to it. Oregeron was a great recruiter, but couldn't capitalize on the talent he brought in. Houston Nutt will change that - instant impact here we come. Jevan Snead, while new, should be serviceable at the very least. Enrique Davis and Cordera Eason are long on talent and short on experience. The offensive line returns 4 starters, so that should really drive their offense. The defense originally returned 9 starters, but Greg Hardy is done for the season - losing 18.5 tackles for loss cannot be replaced. Peria Jerry is a top tier tackle, and end Marcus Tillman can do some things to help curb the loss of Hardy. The linebackers and defensive backs have experience and will lead this team to 3 conference wins.

5.

I originally had the Hogs slated for last, but I think Bobby Petrino will sneak out a win they don't deserve. Their best chances for a conference victory are in Fayetteville against Alabama and Ole Miss, or on the road at Miss State. The 3 returning starters on the defensive line return 24 tackles for loss, which will help the four new starters at DB. The loss of Freddie Fairchild is also bad for this team. I do like Petrino as a coach (not a person), so I think they'll give some defenses fits. 1-7 or 2-6 is their ceiling this year.

6.

It's always funny when I completely disagree with the average joe fan about a team. People are saying, "Ooooo, watch out for State!" Sorry, State isn't going to be very good. They were beneficiaries of a +4 in close games, and were LAST in the SEC statistically. They also still don't have a QB. Dixon is overrated at RB, and the offensive line needs work. Their defense will be very good again, but they won't luckbox their way to a bowl game again. 1-7? I think so.



There it is - the best damn SEC predictions in the land. Come back in December and mock me or praise me.

APP Breakdown: Pac 10

We keep going with another APP Breakdown, this time for the Pac 10. I believe the Pac 10 was the 2nd best conference in America, but are poised for a down year in 2008. However, here's the APP Breakdown from 2007.

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Oregon 115.9
2. Washington State 112.1
3. Washington 107.1
4. USC 103.3
5. Cal 101.2
6. Arizona State 100.6
7. Arizona 98.7
8. Oregon State 90.7
9. UCLA 90.5
10. Stanford 79.9

I'm surprised ASU ranked so low, barely above average. Outside of Stanford, there were no horrible offenses. Even UCLA, who I thought would have been worse, has a respectable score for 9th place. The Pac 10, who used to be known for ALL offense-NO defense play, had no absolutely outstanding offenses last year. The run/pass scores are below.

Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):

1. Oregon 148.3
2. Washington 147.2
3. UCLA 116.1
4. Oregon State 114.7
5. USC 109.1
6. Cal 99.6
7. Arizona State 83.1
8. Washington State 71.9
9. Stanford 57.2
10. Arizona 51.1

The Pac 10 had 4 very bad rush offense, though, one of them (Arizona) is understandable due to offensive system. Arizona State was surprisingly low, and will really need to improve that area to stay in the top 3 of the Pac 10.

Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):

1. Washington State 136.1
2. Arizona 127
3. Arizona State 111.5
4. Cal 102.1
5. USC 99.7
6. Oregon 95.9
7. Stanford 93.4
8. Washington 84
9. Oregon State 75.5
10. UCLA 75

So can we officially kill the "PAC 10=PASS PASS PASS ZOMG" theory? Only 4 offenses were any good, and the bottom 3 were awful. USC was right at average, even with a senior QB. Interesting.

Let's go to other side of the LOS.

Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. USC 150.3
2. Oregon State 115.7
3. UCLA 107.2
4. Arizona State 101.8
5. Cal 101.3
6. Arizona 100.9
7. Oregon 99.1
8. Washington State 88.4
9. Stanford 82.7
10. Washington 81.6

See? The Pac 10 was a defense driven conference last year. 6 teams were above average, and Oregon was right there, too. The bottom 3 weren't good, but again, not wretched. Below, as usual, are the run/pass breakouts.

Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):

1.USC 164.9
2. Oregon State 155.3
3. Arizona State 130.3
4. Oregon 109.2
5. UCLA 108.3
6. Arizona 97.4
7. Cal 90.3
8. Washington State 86.6
9. Stanford 78.1
10. Washington 64

The fact is: if you want to be a player in the Pac 10, stop the run. 5 of the top 6 rush defenses in the Pac 10 made a bowl. The top 4 finishers in the final standings are the top 4 in the standings in RDAPP.

Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP:)

1. USC 142.7
2. Cal 109.5
3. UCLA 106.6
4. Arizona 103.3
5. Oregon State 100.9
6. Washington 96.7
7. Oregon 94.2
8. Arizona State 89.7
9. Washington State 89.6
10. Stanford 85.9

Holy parity! Stanford's 85.9 would be better than last in most conferences. Arizona State's low score has to worry Sun Devil fans going forward. Cal rebounded well from a poor 2006 in pass defense to finish 2nd this past season.

Onto the final standings!

Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP)

1. USC 126.8
2. Oregon 107.5
3. Oregon State 103.2
4. Cal 101.3
5. Arizona State 101.2
6. Washington State 100.3
7. Arizona 99.8
8. UCLA 98.9
9. Washington 94.4
10. Stanford 81.3

Using this metric, Arizona State could be in for a couple more losses. They finished 2nd in the Pac 10 standings, but were 5th in CAPP. Cal finished 7th in the Pac 10, but were 4th statistically - they could move up. UCLA finished 5th overall, but 8th in CAPP - regression?

APP Breakdown: Big 10

Well, I've gotten insanely behind, so today and tomorrow, I'll be posting APPs for the major conferences, so on Thursday I can post my major conference predictions. Yowza.

Here is the Big 10 APP Breakdown, without the bells and whistles.

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Michigan State 117.8
2. Wisconsin 108.4
3. Illinois 107.9
4. Northwestern 107.5
5. Penn State 105.6
6. Minnesota 104.7
7. Purdue 102.1
8. Ohio State 98.3
9. Michigan 91.2
10. Indiana 87.7
11. Iowa 72.9

I think the shocking thing is Ohio State at 8th, scoring a below average score. They need to improve on that if they want to win a national title. Below are the rushing and passing standings.

Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):

1. Illinois 161.9
2. Michigan State 131.2
3. Ohio State 125.2
4. Penn State 123.4
5. Wisconsin 119.3
6. Minnesota 92.6
7. Michigan 84.5
8. Indiana 73.9
9. Purdue 67.6
10. Iowa 63.8
11. Northwestern 61.8

The Big 10 looks to have had 5 very good rush offenses, then a bunch of horrid run games.

Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):

1. Northwestern 139.7
2. Purdue 127.2
3. Minnesota 113.2
4. Michigan State 108.2
5. Wisconsin 101
6. Indiana 97.4
7. Michigan 95.7
8. Penn State 93.5
9. Iowa 79.6
10. Ohio State 78.6
11. Illinois 67.6

I think this shows that you don't need a great passing attack to win the Big 10. The top 3 teams in the final Big 10 standings ranked 10th, 7th, and 11th, respectively, in POAPP.

Now, onto the defensive side of the ball.

Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Ohio State 167.5
2. Michigan 124.5
3. Penn State 108.5
4. Iowa 102.8
5. Illinois 97.2
6. Wisconsin 97
7. Purdue 94.6
8. Michigan State 94.3
9. Indiana 91.8
10. Northwestern 87.1
11. Minnesota 75.5

Defense wins in the Big 10. You had 1 completely dominant defense, another very good one, then a log jam from 4-9. Below are the breakouts for rushing D and passing D.

Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):

1. Ohio State 244
2. Penn State 132.8
3. Illinois 118.7
4. Michigan 116
5. Iowa 112.6
6. Wisconsin 99.8
7. Michigan State 93.2
8. Purdue 86.1
9. Northwestern 83.4
10. Indiana 80
11. Minnesota 61.7

The ONLY thing that matters here is the absolute, complete, 100% savagery domination by the Ohio State rush defense. 244? I've never seen a score like that for any portion of APP, ever. Good Lord, that's sick.

Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP):

1. Ohio State 137.3
2. Michigan 131.8
3. Indiana 102.4
4. Purdue 101.3
5. Iowa 96.9
6. Michigan State 95.1
7. Penn State 94.9
8. Wisconsin 94.7
9. Northwestern 90.1
10. Minnesota 89.3
11. Illinois 86.9

I think what's surprising here is that even the bad teams in pass defense weren't awful. Sure, the bottom three scores aren't good, but for being the worst teams in the conference, those are respectable scores. Illinois even has the sick Vontae Davis on the field.

The big shabang is the final standings in the APP, where you can find hints of which teams will improve or regress.

Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP):

1. Ohio State 132.9
2. Michigan 107.9
3. Penn State 107.1
4. Michigan State 106.1
5. Wisconsin 102.7
6. Illinois 102.3
7. Purdue 98.4
8. Northwestern 97.3
9. Minnesota 90.1
10. Indiana 89.8
11. Iowa 87.9

The way to find the movers and shakers are to identify the teams who are 2 or more spots off from where they finished in the Big 10 standings. For instance, I tabbed Michigan State a team on the rise because, while they finished 8th or 9th in the Big 10, they were the 4th best team, statistically. Historically, that means WATCH OUT FOR THE SPARTANS! Also, it works the other way. Iowa finished 6th in the conference, but were the worst team, statistically. Look out below! You can find a couple others in there, too.

APP Breakdown: SEC

Well, I've gone and wasted my summer by not writing here at the CFB Authority, and now, I'm down to 4 weeks until kickoff. I have all the APP Breakdowns to get to the public, I have my predictions out and about, and I have some other features before August 28th, too. Ouch. Maybe I'll cowboy up and do all of it.

For those of you who may not have followed the APP last year when I debuted it, here is a link that explains what APP is (and it's branches) and the 2006 SEC APP. I don't feel like explaining it in depth again, but basically, it takes the conference games of a team, looks at how they performed against those specific team in relation to their averages. It's better than straight statistics because it takes schedule strength into account.

Let's get onto the APP Breakdown for the best conference in the country, the Southeastern Conference.

Here is the SEC's Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Florida 119.9
2. Arkansas 117.7
3. Kentucky 110.5
4. LSU 110.4
5. Tennessee 101.5
6. South Carolina 100.6
7. Georgia 98.5
8. Ole Miss 98.4
9. Alabama 97.9
10. Auburn 88.1
11. Vanderbilt 80.5
12. Miss State 77.3

I think the most interesting note here is that Georgia ranked 7th in the conference offensively, and was a tad below average. Bulldog fans are incredibly hyped about their season, and rightfully so. However, they need to improve their overall offensive efficiency to win the conference. Also, notice Ole Miss at 8th. I find that surprising, as their offense didn't score a lot. With the additions of Enrique Davis, Jevan Snead, and Houston Nutt, I think they'll punch it in the endzone far more often.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):


BREAKING NEWS COMING OFF THE WIRE AS WE SPEAK ..... Arkansas could run the ball really, really well! This isn't surprising, groundbreaking, or even interesting. We all knew this before the 2007 season even kicked off. I was surprised, however, that LSU was second in the conference, and it wasn't that close. Florida was 3rd, Auburn 4th, and Georgia 5th. For Arkansas, imagine how their statistics will change without McFadden and Jones.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):


The Gamecocks had a wretched 64 ROAPP, which means they performed 36% below average! I would say the two big reasons were playcalling and the offensive line. Cory Boyd was actually a very solid back in the conference, but you know the Ol' Ball Coach: he becomes the Ol' Throw Coach. Miss State was 11th and Tennessee was actually 10th. I'm very worried about the Gamecock offense, because Blake Mitchell was a decent QB last year, and with NO quarterback and losing a good RB, what can they do?

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):


The Cats have always been known to toss the pigskin around, and with a great collegiate QB in Andre Woodson and a nice package of receivers, why not keep it up? They scored a 133.2, so they were in the "great" category. They do lose Woodson and Burton, as well as a receiving RB in Rafael Little. South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee were 2nd-4th, respectively.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):


The only player who regressed more over his career than Brandon Cox was Georgia Tech legend Reggie Ball. Cox was horrific his last season at the Barn, so you can see why Ears went out to find a new coordinator and a new system. Auburn scored a 72.2, so they were bad, but not the worst ever. Vanderbilt was 11th, and Arkansas was 10th. Mississippi State was also bad here, too.

Now, the other part of the equation is the SEC's Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Auburn 129.1
2. LSU 112.2
3. Georgia 110.3
4. Miss State 104.3
5. Vanderbilt 102.8
6. Alabama 100.5
7. Florida 97.2
8. South Carolina 96.5
9. Kentucky 91.5
10. Arkansas 90.8
11. Tennessee 90.1
12. Ole Miss 88.8

Before I highlight any team scores, I want to point out that the SEC's disparity in defense from top to bottom is much smaller is than the offensive disparity. There is a 42.4 point difference between the #2 offense and the #12 offense. However, defensively, there is only a 23.3 point difference from the #2 defense to the bottom. Auburn was the only great defense in the conference last year, which is a big reason people are picking them to win the West.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):


I think if people were going to bet on this beforehand, they would have chosen LSU. However, the Bayou Bengals didn't finish first, nor second, nor third. Auburn returns 5 of their front 7, but the two losses were Quentin Groves and Pat Sims - four huge shoes to fill. Still, I expect them back at #1 in 2008. Florida finished 2nd (everybody threw on them), Alabama was 3rd, and LSU was 4th. All four scored 120.6 or better.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):


Nice to see you again. When you can't run the ball, nor stop the run, in the SEC, you're bound to be in trouble. South Carolina definitely was last year. Ole Miss and Kentucky were the only other two schools comparable in rush defense issues. Carolina can blame some of the issues on injuries, and they get a boatload of front 7 players back in 2008. If they improve here, watch out.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):


No weaknesses on the Auburn defense in 2007. They stopped the run cold, and also, with the benefit of two draft picks in Jon Wilhite (missed some games) and Patrick Lee at cornerback. Eric Brock was also steady at safety. Jerraud Powers and Zac Etheridge also played very well. South Carolina, Miss State, and Georgia also scored highly.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):


I think I expected Tennessee to score poorly, but didn't realize they'd be last. Inexperience and an odd affinity for giving 20 yard cushions are the reasons for this. The Vols scored an 80.9, which isn't THAT bad for being the worst pass defense, but it's still far below average. Even jumping up to average would mean wonders for the team. Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama were almost as bad.

Now that we've broken it down, the most important aspect of this is to look at the Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP) and the 2007 conference finish in parenthesis:

1. LSU 111.3 (1st)
2t. Auburn 108.6 (4th)
2t. Florida 108.6 (5th)
4. Georgia 104.4 (3rd)
5. Arkansas 104.3 (6th)
6. Kentucky 101 (10th)
7. Alabama 99.2 (8th)
8. South Carolina 98.6 (9th)
9. Tennessee 95.8 (2nd)
10. Ole Miss 93.6 (12th)
11. Vanderbilt 91.7 (11th)
12. Miss State 90.8 (7th)

What you need to understand is that any team more than a spot off either direction either overperformed or underperformed. For example, Tennessee finished 2nd in the SEC, but was 9th (!!!) statistically, hinting at a regression in record in 2008. On the flipside, Auburn finished 4th, but was 2nd statistically, so expect a better record in 2008. Miss State is a team you need to bet on regressing, as well. They were the worst statistical team in the conference, but benefited from a lot of close wins.

Remember, there are other variables to take into consideration: close games, draft losses, returning starters, turnovers, and schedule. But this gives a nice little look into who could really surprise us in terms of 2008 play. I'm worried about my Vols.
6.

Fulmer Served Subpoena, or was he?

I'll be busy all day today, but by now you've heard about this story. It's confusing, but my friend, Vol Freak, site owner of Volnation (best Vol forum on the net) has a great time line of how things have gone today. We still don't know what's up, but again, keep checking at Volnation for Freak's time line. It's worth the click through, seriously.

Fulmer/Subpoena Time Line @ Volnation.com

Javon Ringer: Darkhorse for Heisman?

Every year, there are a handful of players that have the stats to be considered preseason Heisman candidates, but the major media outlets don't mention them. Thus, the average Joe fans don't warm up to them. Last season, I mentioned Rashard Mendenhall and Jon Stewart should be considered Heisman candidates, and they went out and had marvelous seasons (and still got no Heisman love). I thought what Rashard Mendenhall did was more impressive than what Colt Brennan did. That's a different entry, though.

This is all about my 2008 dark horse, Javon Ringer. The kid had an incredible 2007 campaign, and NOBODY is talking about it. In 2007, he racked up 1,447 yards, but did it on only 245 carries. For the math-disabled, that's 5.91 yards per carry - more than Beanie Wells, Ray Rice, Mike Hart, Tashard Choice, LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno, Steve Slaton, and a boatload of other great BCS conference running backs. Only Felix Jones, Mendenhall, Stewart, and Jamaal Charles ran for more ypc with over 200 carries from a BCS school. Ringer also had 35 receptions for 295 yards, so he has some versatility to his game.

In 2006, Ringer gained only 497 yards because he only had 86 carries. Why? Because he missed 5 games. He still had a sick 5.78 ypc. The year before, he had 122 carries for 817 yards - another disgusting ypc average of 6.7. It seems like Ringer has been the victim of toolittlecarryitis - that's a technical term, just trust me.

So, why isn't he being touted? Why isn't he receiving daily e-blows from fans on message boards? I truly don't know why - I have ideas, though.

1. The better known, but worse running back, Beanie Wells is in his conference, and plays for one of the wet dream teams of ESPN.
2. Average college football fans (the majority of football fans are average fans), don't do their own research.
3. He plays for Michigan State.

Here's a guy who has averaged over 6.1 yards per carry for his entire year. He finally got a nice amount of carries last season, and still kept the sick average up. His team is also on the right paper track to having a good 2008 - around 8 wins, maybe 9. He'll be JUST like Mendenhall and Stewart. People will notice him too late for the Heisman, but not too late for a 1st round draft pick.

Mark it down now - Javon Ringer is the best running back in the Big 10, and barring injury, you'll know it by week 6.

I Challenge Tom Dienhart

Yeah, you read that correctly. I am laying down the gauntlet to former Sporting News blogger, turned Rivals.com somethingsomething. I've made no attempts to hide my disdain for Dienhart: mash it

So, now, I want to put the challenge out there, and hope it makes his way to him. Or, I could find his e-mail address at Rivals and just show him. Either way, this will be the most dramatic, awe-inspiring, fist-clenching face-off in the history of the world, maybe even the nation. Dienhart, I think I'm a better prognosticator of college football than you. I think I know more about what changes are truly important from season to season, and I think you, frankly, don't.

So, hopefully, my internet macho bravado has at least reeled you in thus far, Dienhart. What is this challenge, you ask? It's simple. We both predict the order of finish for every FBS (D-1A) conference for 2008. We can predict no ties. For every spot we're off for every team, we get a point. The lowest total wins. This is just like what Stassen does for college football magazines, except applied to our challenge.

It's obvious what's in it for me - a chance to massacre the one sportswriter who tilts me more than any other (of course, this does not apply to your character or anything - I bet you're an awesome dude). I get the chance to be the guy you'll tell your grandchildren about - "After my humiliation, my fingers shook every time they approached the keyboard. All because of Coffin! COFFFFFFFFINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!"

Oh, you're asking what you get out of it? Simple. First, you get a swell idea for a recurring blog entry every week at Rivals. We'll pump this up, see. I'll play the role of John Q. Public College Football Fan Who Loves the Game versus Tom Q. Dienhart College Football Writer Who Fans Think They Know More Than. College football fans will visit rivals.com weekly to see how the David versus Goliath battle is going. That's traffic, my friend. Not street traffic like the kind you should play in (ha, sorry), but site traffic. Site traffic = more moolah for Rivals, which means YOU GET A PAY RAISE EVEN IF YOU LOSE! Call Phil Fulmer to see how you should feel about that.

Second, it will be fun. I know I come off as a jackass in this entry, but I'm only trying to stir your emotions. I'm a gentle fellow, who loves football, Sudoku, grilled cheese sandwiches, and Pembroke Welsh Corgis. We will have a great time trading e-barbs and taunting each other weekly when you're surprise team (Iowa, hahaha) loses it's 7th game.

Lastly, you can shut up every person who has ever criticized you. Why do I say that? Because you'll beat the best. Errrr, the second best. SMQ didn't think of this idea, so you can't face the best. But you can face me, #2 in my own mind (how sad is that?). Hell, if you're as smart as you think, you'll crush me, my soul, and my future offspring. Wouldn't that make all your hard work worth it? No? Why not?

Dienhart, the line has been drawn. Will you cowboy up and cross it, or run to the hills like Steve Alford? We could even add some sort of PRIZE for the winner! Yeah, money or something. Or hookers. Or money for hookers. Whatever you like - Asian, reds, whatever. I bet you like the big booties. Anyway.

E-mail me at thepowerT@gmail.com if you want to communicate more on this. I'm dead serious. As Sun Tzu said, "The one who figures on victory at headquarters before even doing battle is the one who has the most strategic factors on his side."

2007 CGVRs

If you've followed my blogs for even a month ... ever ... then you know that Close Game Variance Ratio is something that I very much believe in. It's basically Phil Steele's idea that I gave a name to. CGVRs are calculated by finding the net ratio a team built in close games. If Team X had 4 wins of 8 points or less, and 2 losses of 8 points or fewer, they had a +2 CGVR. If a team has a +2 CGVR or higher, you can confidently predict that they will NOT improve their record. If a team has a -2 CGVR or worse, you can expect them to improve their record the following season. I've added in the 2006 outcomes to the ol' database, so from 2001-2006, here is how accurate the CGVR machine has been.

+4 and up - Has occurred 43 times, with 93% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season
+3 - Has occurred 30 times, with 73% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season
+2 - Has occurred 62 times, with 68% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season

Does your team fall into the parameters?

Hawaii +5 (12-1)
Mississippi State +4 (8-5)
Virginia +4 (9-4)
Oregon State +4 (9-4)
Tulsa +4 (10-4)
Tennessee +3 (10-4)
Northwestern +3 (6-6)
Kansas +3 (12-1)
Arizona State +3 (10-3)
East Carolina +3 (8-5)
Memphis +3 (7-6)
Toledo +3 (5-7)
Florida Atlantic +3 (8-5)
Kentucky +2 (8-5)
LSU +2 (12-2)
Wisconsin +2 (9-4)
Michigan +2 (9-4)
Texas +2 (10-3)
Missouri +2 (12-2)
Boston College +2 (11-3)
NC State +2 (5-7)
Louisiana Monroe +2 (6-6)
Connecticut +2 (9-4)
New Mexico +2 (9-4)
San Diego St +2 (4-8)
Bowling Green +2 (8-5)
Miami, Oh +2 (6-7)
Temple +2 (4-8)

If your team is listed above, be afraaaaid, be verrrry afraaaaaid. Now, the other side of the coin: negative CGVRs.

-4 and worse - Has occurred 29 times, with 86% of the teams having the same or better record the next season
-3 - Has occurred 46 times, with 72% of the teams having the same or better record the next season
-2 - Has occurred 62 times, with 71% of the teams having the same or better record the next season

Again, here are the teams that apply:

Minnesota -5 (1-11)
Washington -5 (4-9)
SMU -5 (1-11)
Michigan State -4 (7-6)
Vanderbilt -3 (5-7)
Maryland -3 (6-7)
North Carolina -3 (4-8)
UCLA -3 (6-7)
UNLV -3 (2-10)
Northern Illinois -3 (2-10)
Kent State -3 (3-9)
Louisiana Lafayette -3 (3-9)
Alabama -2 (7-6)
Kansas State -2 (5-7)
Florida State -2 (7-6)
Miami -2 (5-7)
Duke -2 (1-11)
Arizona -2 (5-7)
TCU -2 (8-5)
Colorado State -2 (3-9)
Marshall -2 (3-9)
Nevada -2 (6-7)
Idaho -2 (1-11)
Utah State -2 (2-10)
W. Michigan -2 (5-7)

If your team is listed above, you can hold out hope that the stats are in your favor. As always, these numbers are only tools, and are not the ONLY thing to look at. But you can still amaze your friends this autumn.

Rich Brooks Capsizes

This morning, WHAS Channel 11 out of Louisville, reported breaking news that a boat capsized, and one of the passengers was University of Kentucky head football coach Rich Brooks. The article also states that Brooks is fine and will be out on the river, fishing, again - even though fishing is bullshit.

We have an exclusive photo of Brooks after the boat capsized, when he attempted to swim to shore.

THAT AIN'T TRUE!

Here you go. I expect you to use this, mostly on forums, when somebody says something completely incorrect. Like, let's say UGAFan4Lyfe says "Stafford is the best QB in the SEC," you post this.




I believe this line was the most underrated of Mike Gundy's rant. Use it at will.