Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Pac 10

Last year, the Pac 10 was the 2nd best conference in America, but with graduation, they've become the 3rd this season (rebuilding, if you will).

Here are my predictions for the hardest conference to predict.

1.

The Trojans are always written down as #1, in ink no less, in the Pac 10. Sure, they had the biggest losses across the country to the draft, but who cares? They have raw talent in every direction, and it continues to come. The defense last year was incredible, and it could be better this year, even after losing Rivers, Ellis, and Jackson. They certainly won't be passed against. So, you're an opposing Pac 10 OC, and you have to run against them - have fun getting by Maualuga and Cushing. The offense, on the other hand, is worrisome. Sure, you expect WRs Hazelton and Turner to put it all together, and you have 72 running backs who were Parade All-Americans. But the two very serious concerns are quarterback, and more importantly, the offensive line. They return 1 starter, but have loads of talent waiting. Still, it takes time to adjust to playing every snap in serious college football. I think, in the end, they'll be fine, but growing pains will happen early. Not a pleasant thought when they go: v. Ohio State, BYE, @ Oregon State, v. Oregon, v. Arizona State. Yikes.

2.

The middle tier of the Pac 10 is probably the most intriguing aspect of college football for me each year. Last year, I told you Oregon and ASU would be much improved, and they were. This year, it's much more difficult to say. Oregon lost Dixon and Stewart, but return a star WR and a solid backup RB in Jeremiah Johnson. Plus, they have 3 good offensive linemen returning. However, the way they win this year is through defense. The front 4 produced last year and should be just as good this year. The defensive backfield is no doubt going to be one of the best in the conference, after a subpar 2007. They need MLB John Bacon to return to full form after his injury last year. They could easily finish 6th as they could finish 2nd.

3.

Again, they could finish 2nd-6th, but I like what the defense returns. They only generated 22 sacks last year, but they bring back 3 of their 4 starting DL with some talented backups. The linebackers are the 2nd best in the conference, but the defensive backs have to replace 2 starters, including Decoud, a draft pick. The offense will improve on Riley's mobility alone. Longshore was a statue with a slow release. They return 3 OL with a super super super fast back in Jahvid Best. Tedford will need to run more early while they break in 3 new starting receivers. I can't stress enough how volatile the 2nd tier of the Pac 10 is this year.

4.

I really wanted to put the Sun Devils at #2, but the signs for regression are too plentiful. They were +3 in close games, lost a bit to the draft, and were 5th in the conference statistically. However, defense wins in the Pac 10, and the Devils have some. It's going to take time for Erickson to infuse talent into the defense, but the guys on hand can get some things done. They need more QB pressure, and should get it with 3 of 4 DL returning. They return 2 starting LB, but the group lacks athleticism. The DBs must replace 2 draft picks, and they have to do it with little talent. Offensively, anytime you return a senior QB the level of Carpenter, you have to be happy. Still, Torain is a big loss, but Herring can handle the load. The receivers look fine, but the offensive line needs to replace 3 starters. The OL is another place where Erickson needs to find talent. ASU could be anywhere from 2nd-5th.

5.

This spot was between UCLA and Arizona, and it was a very difficult decision. Ultimately, I gave the decision to the better defensive team. UCLA, for all the offensive headaches, will have a stout defense (and defense wins in the P10). UCLA has a good front 7, which will hide some issues in the secondary. CB Alterraun Verner is a future player on Sundays, but the other CB spot and both safeties have new starters. On offense, they just need to feed the ball to Bell and Co. and pass from 3 step drops to talented receivers. The offensive line is so thin and bad, they can't consistently hold DLs for 5-7 step drops. I say run quick slants, quick hitches, and screens to get the ball out fast.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

It's weird - the 2nd-7th place teams could all be shuffled around, and the 8th-10th could be in any order. The Pac 10's year to year changes are insane.

APP Breakdown: Pac 10

We keep going with another APP Breakdown, this time for the Pac 10. I believe the Pac 10 was the 2nd best conference in America, but are poised for a down year in 2008. However, here's the APP Breakdown from 2007.

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Oregon 115.9
2. Washington State 112.1
3. Washington 107.1
4. USC 103.3
5. Cal 101.2
6. Arizona State 100.6
7. Arizona 98.7
8. Oregon State 90.7
9. UCLA 90.5
10. Stanford 79.9

I'm surprised ASU ranked so low, barely above average. Outside of Stanford, there were no horrible offenses. Even UCLA, who I thought would have been worse, has a respectable score for 9th place. The Pac 10, who used to be known for ALL offense-NO defense play, had no absolutely outstanding offenses last year. The run/pass scores are below.

Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):

1. Oregon 148.3
2. Washington 147.2
3. UCLA 116.1
4. Oregon State 114.7
5. USC 109.1
6. Cal 99.6
7. Arizona State 83.1
8. Washington State 71.9
9. Stanford 57.2
10. Arizona 51.1

The Pac 10 had 4 very bad rush offense, though, one of them (Arizona) is understandable due to offensive system. Arizona State was surprisingly low, and will really need to improve that area to stay in the top 3 of the Pac 10.

Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):

1. Washington State 136.1
2. Arizona 127
3. Arizona State 111.5
4. Cal 102.1
5. USC 99.7
6. Oregon 95.9
7. Stanford 93.4
8. Washington 84
9. Oregon State 75.5
10. UCLA 75

So can we officially kill the "PAC 10=PASS PASS PASS ZOMG" theory? Only 4 offenses were any good, and the bottom 3 were awful. USC was right at average, even with a senior QB. Interesting.

Let's go to other side of the LOS.

Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. USC 150.3
2. Oregon State 115.7
3. UCLA 107.2
4. Arizona State 101.8
5. Cal 101.3
6. Arizona 100.9
7. Oregon 99.1
8. Washington State 88.4
9. Stanford 82.7
10. Washington 81.6

See? The Pac 10 was a defense driven conference last year. 6 teams were above average, and Oregon was right there, too. The bottom 3 weren't good, but again, not wretched. Below, as usual, are the run/pass breakouts.

Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):

1.USC 164.9
2. Oregon State 155.3
3. Arizona State 130.3
4. Oregon 109.2
5. UCLA 108.3
6. Arizona 97.4
7. Cal 90.3
8. Washington State 86.6
9. Stanford 78.1
10. Washington 64

The fact is: if you want to be a player in the Pac 10, stop the run. 5 of the top 6 rush defenses in the Pac 10 made a bowl. The top 4 finishers in the final standings are the top 4 in the standings in RDAPP.

Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP:)

1. USC 142.7
2. Cal 109.5
3. UCLA 106.6
4. Arizona 103.3
5. Oregon State 100.9
6. Washington 96.7
7. Oregon 94.2
8. Arizona State 89.7
9. Washington State 89.6
10. Stanford 85.9

Holy parity! Stanford's 85.9 would be better than last in most conferences. Arizona State's low score has to worry Sun Devil fans going forward. Cal rebounded well from a poor 2006 in pass defense to finish 2nd this past season.

Onto the final standings!

Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP)

1. USC 126.8
2. Oregon 107.5
3. Oregon State 103.2
4. Cal 101.3
5. Arizona State 101.2
6. Washington State 100.3
7. Arizona 99.8
8. UCLA 98.9
9. Washington 94.4
10. Stanford 81.3

Using this metric, Arizona State could be in for a couple more losses. They finished 2nd in the Pac 10 standings, but were 5th in CAPP. Cal finished 7th in the Pac 10, but were 4th statistically - they could move up. UCLA finished 5th overall, but 8th in CAPP - regression?

The Jumbled 2nd Tier of the Pac 10

If you've picked up a single preseason preview magazine, it probably has USC as the #1 team in America. Why shouldn't they be? They return a senior QB, return 10 players from the best defense in the conference, with possibly 4 1st round picks on that side of the ball alone. They have a slew of running backs who are all capable of averaging at least 4 yards per carry. Oh, and they have the best coach in the country. USC's status as the top dog in the Pac 10 is not going to be challenged in 2007, if we're all correct in our assessments.

The really exciting thing about the Pac 10 in 2007 is going to be the absolute clusterdryhump from #2 through #6. California, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, and Oregon State will all jockey to finish as the #1 Loser so they can make the Rose Bowl. A lot of pundits peg Cal for that spot, but I'll get into why I disagree later (similar reasons to what the Genius has said). If you put those 5 teams into any order in the standings, I could understand why you would. Hell, you could convince me that Arizona's new offensive scheme could add them into the equation. I won't though, because Tuitama needs to show consistency while healthy.

Why isn't Cal the clear #2? Why don't I believe UCLA will challenge? Why am I falling in love with the Ducks and the Devils? Read on to find out. Beware, though, as I'm using a lot of statistical analysis up front, with some eyeball analysis at the badunkadunk. Before the table, I'd like to give you a key, if you will, of what the abbreviations stand for, and what kind of correlation they have to results the next season.

CGVR: Close Game Variance Ratio - Started by Phil Steele, and adjusted slightly by me, and given a name. Steele has done extensive research on close game outcomes. When teams are either very lucky or very unlucky, they have a good chance of different fortunes the next season. A close game, with my adjustment, is any final score within 8 points either direction. A team with a +4 in CGVR means they had 4 net close game victories. You can find the probabilities for this metric here. Basically, just remember +2 or more means a team's record will not improve, and -2 or more means it will improve the next season.

DDH: Draft Day Hangover - Straight from Phil Steele. His tool applies points to each round of the draft for which a player was taken. A 1st round pick is worth 7 points, a 2nd rounder is 5, 3rd round is 4, and so on. Anything higher than 12, per Steele, means a record decrease the next season.

RS: Returning Starters (not K/P) - From everyone and everywhere. 11,12, and 13 RS is neutral. Anything more is a good thing, any less could be a downward slide.

TO: Turnovers - Phil Steele has found a correlation with next season success or failure based on turnovers. If your team was +8 or more last season, you could expect that luck to even out and have a worse record the next season. The inverse is true of -8 or worse.

CAPP: Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage - My stat that bases ranking of a conference by the yardage stats in conference play in comparison to strength of opposition. The way to apply it is like Steele does with his ypg theory. If a team, say, Oregon, finishes 5th in the Pac 10, but was statistically 1st in the conference, you can expect them to improve their record the next season.

OVERALL: This is where I combine the 5 metrics from above, and see if the team is trending up or down. The more arrows the better.

Team	CGVR	DDH	RS	TO	CAPP	OVERALL
Cal	E	16	13	+6	4th
Oregon St	+4	6	16	+8	5th
UCLA	E	2	20	+4	7th
Oregon	+1	4	14	-10	1st
Arizona St	E	6	14	-1	3rd

That took me a long time to put together, so you better love it. From the table alone, it looks like Cal and Oregon State are going to take a step back, while the lower 3 all will move up. However, there has to be more to the story, right? For sure. The schedules of the 5 teams, as well as talent have to come into play. Let's take a took at it.


The Bears have the most raw talent of the 5 teams jockeying for position to place. With the WR corps of Jackson, Hawkins, and Jordan, combined with a competent quarterback, they can beat anybody on any given day. Their defense is a huge concern, especially up front. They have a good coach in Jeff Tedford, who could be better than Mike Belotti and Dennis Erickson right now, but he doesn't have the accomplishments to prove it. The biggest concern for them finishing #2 is that of the 4 games against their peers on the 2nd tier, only 1 is at home. Cal has been a damn good team in Berkeley, so it definitely matters for them. They get the Beavers in Memorial, but the other 3 are on the road and all of them can beat Cal.


Not only did Oregon State come out with 4 net close victories, they also were on the positive side of variance for turnovers. Those 2 are the biggest trends in the table, in my opinion. They also weren't as good as 3rd statistically. On the other side of things, they return their starting running back and all of their sack monsters. Like Cal, they only get 1 home game against the 4 possible bridesmaids. I think the Beavers suffer the greatest fall in the Pac 10.


I find the Bruins to be the toughest to project in this group. They have an insane amount of returning starts, didn't lose much to the draft, and weren't on either side of variance at all. They weren't statistically the 4th best team in the conference. In fact, they were 7th! Stats aren't everything, but they are something. They also have the worst head coach of the 5 Susan Lucci's. Preseason rags are pimping UCLA to be #2 or #3 in the conference, with an outside shot at the title. But Dorrell has been anything but impressive, saved only by a miracle against USC. They do get 3 of the 4 games at home, where the Dorrell Bruins are 20-5.


The team with the most green, up arrows is only getting love from Phil Steele, for the same reasons I'm giving them love. They were on the bad side of variance for turnovers, have returning starters, and were the BEST statistical team in the Pac 10 last year. If I did guarantees, one would be Oregon finishing #2 in the conference this year. But watch out, Dennis Dixon is spending the summer missing splitfingers, which is a summer without football preparation. This alone could screw them out of #2. The biggest reason Oregon underachieved last year was Dixon's ability to put it between the numbers of a receiver ... from the defense. If he comes around, Oregon will walk away with the Mark Martin Award. Oh, and they get 3 of 4 in Eugene, the toughest place to play in the Pac 10.


As you can see in the table above, Arizona State has 3 pretty green arrows, signifying a major move up the ladder in the Pac 10. This is without considering they signed a National Championship head coach. Erickson, while as shady as the earth under a 400 year oak, wins games. He'll take Arizona State to a new level, and it could be sooner than people expect. They had no variance, positive or negative. They return 14 starts, including a very promising offense. If the defense can hold serve, they might take that #2 spot. They split the games with the other 4 Kevin Federlines, 2 in Tempe, 2 on the road.

How will they all end up? Who will be the beneficiary of a Rose Bowl trip, while not truly earning it? You'll find out in my Pac 10 Predictions in a week or two or three. (This truly wasn't a tease, but yeah, watch for it.)

EDIT: Yes, I realize there's a huge gap before the table. I have no idea why, and I'm waiting on help from blogger. If anyone knows why, e-mail me at thepowert at gmail dot com)