College Football Authority

Clemcake

2008-08-31T10:50:00.000-07:00

Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Big East

2008-08-28T13:14:00.001-07:00

Last, not certainly not least, the Big East, where West Virginia feast ...

1.

I feel it in my bones that Bill Stewart will end up being fired from WVU in the next 3 years, but the talent is too good for them to stink this year. The defensive losses could actually allow them to fall to #2, but even USF and Pitt would need help to do it. Pat White/Noel Devine is unfair, and don't forget Terrence Kerns was highly sought after. Who cares if they have unproven WRs, they return every single starting offensive linemen, which means - Pat White, Noel Devine, Jarrett Brown, kitchen sink, all of them running around in different directions. Will the Mountaineers hold anybody under 30 points, though?

2.

I love Pitt this year. They were 2nd in the Big East statistically, which shows they'll improve. They return 15 starters, including Scott McKillop, who James Laurinaitis has wet dreams about. Lesean McCoy, while a bit overrated, is going to reach that level of play this year. Bill Stull or Pat Bostick? Doesn't matter - just get it quickly to McCoy, or Stephens-Howling, or Kinder, or Turner. The offensive line is the big worry - losing Otah and McGlynn to the NFL would bring down any line. Defensively, the only big loss was Joe Clermond who had 10.5 sacks. Greg Romeus will shine, though. The linebackers are sick with McKillop, Murray, and Gunn. The DBs have 2 returning starters, and will need Jovani Chappel to live up to his billing. Overall, Pitt is on the upward trend, and with some bounces, will challenge WVU.

3.

The Bulls could win the Big East, in all reality. They return 10 starters from a potent offense, and I see no reason why they can't improve on their 34.7 points per game. On defense, there are some obvious worries. Ben Moffitt did everything - over 100 tackles, 12 tfl, 5 pbu, 4 INTs, and the mysterious "heart" everyone talks about. They also lose two NFL draft picks from CB in Jenkins and Williams. Buie and Selvie are frightening at DE, and the safeties are very good. If USF can find a stuffer at MLB and some adequate corners, they'll win the conference.

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Whether you're a seething Connecticut fan right now, or an appreciative Panther fan, leave feedback.

Best Damn Predictions in the Land: ACC

2008-08-28T12:33:00.000-07:00

The worst BCS conference maybe ever? I keed - but it's bad. Here are my predictions.

ACC Atlantic

1.

It won't be close. Everybody wants to talk about Bowden's annual choke job, but this team is too good for him to screw it up. The offensive line is generally issue #1 when talking about Clemson, but they have some inexperienced talent. They return 2 starters, and Jamarcus Grant and Cory Lambert were talented prospects who could show up. Give the ball to Davis and Spiller, and throw smart playaction passes. It's simple! Defensively, nobody will throw on Clemson. They return all 4 starters from the backfield that allowed only 188 yards per game. The front 4 is also stout - Sapp is the pressure end, and the tackles (Jackson and Scott) are very good. The only issue on the defense is at LB - 1 starter returns. Deandre McDaniel played a good amount last year, though, so he should be fine. The schedule is as easy as pie, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Clemson run the table or lose only 1 game.

2.

The 2nd-4th spots in the division are all jumbled and any of the 3 could finish 2nd. I like FSU because their conference schedule is a little more manageable than Maryland's or Wake's. The new coaches from 2007 should start to make their presence known on the field this year. The skill positions are fine on offense, but the OL has 3 holes to fill. Defensively, the passing D needs to improve, whether through better coverage or more QB pressure from the line. I think with FSU's recruiting and 8 starters returning on D, we could see some vintage stout play from the unit. If FSU can steal a home game from VT or Clemson, they'll finish 2nd in the Atlantic.

3.

Maryland and Wake are dead even in my mind, and I like the Terps because they get Wake in College Park. The offense is going to be very very good, and while they'll have to outscore some folks, that's fine with them. They have talent at QB and RB to go along with their proven WR and OL. If they can cut back on the sacks allowed and increase the ypc, they'll be a potent offense. Defensively, they should improve against the rush with 4 of the front 7 returning. The DBs need work, but Friedgen's secondaries always come through.

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ACC Coastal

1.

While VT lost a boatload of players to the NFL draft and graduation, the Coastal division isn't ready to take the top spot from the Hokies. While the losses at WR and RB aren't good, the offensive line makes things a bit easier - they return 4 starters. The RB position is stocked with talent, albeit unproven. Sean Glennon will start at QB, with Taylor possibly redshirting. I absolutely hate that idea, though, as a dual QB system works when you have such polar opposite players. The defense returns only 4 starters, but do you really worry about a Bud Foster D? And let me go on record as being the biggest Macho Harris fan outside of Blacksburg. The game at North Carolina will be a real fun one to watch.

2.

I think the margin between the Canes and the Tarheels is paper thin, but UNC has to travel to Coral Gables, so I give Miami the #2 spot for that. Miami still has the talent on defense to be special, and Shannon will get them there. Offensively, they need to take advantage of returning a LT and a RT on the OL by using the speed of James and Cooper on outside runs. The C and Gs are new, so between the tackle rushing may be difficult. The talent is there for Miami to regain some of it's swagger, but they need to beat the Virginias and NC States. No excuses.

3.

The Tarheels were -3 in close games and also have 17 returning starters. Butch Davis has started bringing in great high school talent. While 2008 might still be a year away from contending, they should make a bowl game. The Miami game will decide who finishes 2nd. They return 10 starters on O, but need TJ Yates to improve. If he doesn't, watch for Paulus. The running game needs to take advantage of the talents from Little and Houston. The OL returns 4 guys, but they only paved the way for 3.0 ypc last year. The defense has to replace 3 very good players in Balmer, Taylor, and Mapp, but by sheer numbers, they should be okay.

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Duke fan? All 1 of you - leave feedback. Cutcliffe has his hands full, but watch what they do this year.

Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Pac 10

2008-08-28T12:02:00.000-07:00

Last year, the Pac 10 was the 2nd best conference in America, but with graduation, they've become the 3rd this season (rebuilding, if you will).

Here are my predictions for the hardest conference to predict.

1.

The Trojans are always written down as #1, in ink no less, in the Pac 10. Sure, they had the biggest losses across the country to the draft, but who cares? They have raw talent in every direction, and it continues to come. The defense last year was incredible, and it could be better this year, even after losing Rivers, Ellis, and Jackson. They certainly won't be passed against. So, you're an opposing Pac 10 OC, and you have to run against them - have fun getting by Maualuga and Cushing. The offense, on the other hand, is worrisome. Sure, you expect WRs Hazelton and Turner to put it all together, and you have 72 running backs who were Parade All-Americans. But the two very serious concerns are quarterback, and more importantly, the offensive line. They return 1 starter, but have loads of talent waiting. Still, it takes time to adjust to playing every snap in serious college football. I think, in the end, they'll be fine, but growing pains will happen early. Not a pleasant thought when they go: v. Ohio State, BYE, @ Oregon State, v. Oregon, v. Arizona State. Yikes.

2.

The middle tier of the Pac 10 is probably the most intriguing aspect of college football for me each year. Last year, I told you Oregon and ASU would be much improved, and they were. This year, it's much more difficult to say. Oregon lost Dixon and Stewart, but return a star WR and a solid backup RB in Jeremiah Johnson. Plus, they have 3 good offensive linemen returning. However, the way they win this year is through defense. The front 4 produced last year and should be just as good this year. The defensive backfield is no doubt going to be one of the best in the conference, after a subpar 2007. They need MLB John Bacon to return to full form after his injury last year. They could easily finish 6th as they could finish 2nd.

3.

Again, they could finish 2nd-6th, but I like what the defense returns. They only generated 22 sacks last year, but they bring back 3 of their 4 starting DL with some talented backups. The linebackers are the 2nd best in the conference, but the defensive backs have to replace 2 starters, including Decoud, a draft pick. The offense will improve on Riley's mobility alone. Longshore was a statue with a slow release. They return 3 OL with a super super super fast back in Jahvid Best. Tedford will need to run more early while they break in 3 new starting receivers. I can't stress enough how volatile the 2nd tier of the Pac 10 is this year.

4.

I really wanted to put the Sun Devils at #2, but the signs for regression are too plentiful. They were +3 in close games, lost a bit to the draft, and were 5th in the conference statistically. However, defense wins in the Pac 10, and the Devils have some. It's going to take time for Erickson to infuse talent into the defense, but the guys on hand can get some things done. They need more QB pressure, and should get it with 3 of 4 DL returning. They return 2 starting LB, but the group lacks athleticism. The DBs must replace 2 draft picks, and they have to do it with little talent. Offensively, anytime you return a senior QB the level of Carpenter, you have to be happy. Still, Torain is a big loss, but Herring can handle the load. The receivers look fine, but the offensive line needs to replace 3 starters. The OL is another place where Erickson needs to find talent. ASU could be anywhere from 2nd-5th.

5.

This spot was between UCLA and Arizona, and it was a very difficult decision. Ultimately, I gave the decision to the better defensive team. UCLA, for all the offensive headaches, will have a stout defense (and defense wins in the P10). UCLA has a good front 7, which will hide some issues in the secondary. CB Alterraun Verner is a future player on Sundays, but the other CB spot and both safeties have new starters. On offense, they just need to feed the ball to Bell and Co. and pass from 3 step drops to talented receivers. The offensive line is so thin and bad, they can't consistently hold DLs for 5-7 step drops. I say run quick slants, quick hitches, and screens to get the ball out fast.

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It's weird - the 2nd-7th place teams could all be shuffled around, and the 8th-10th could be in any order. The Pac 10's year to year changes are insane.

Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Big 12

2008-08-28T11:33:00.001-07:00

Keep rollin rollin rollin rollin rollin rollin.....

Here are my Big 12 (#2 conference in 2008) predictions for this season.

Big 12 South

1.

This Oklahoma team is stacked and has the schedule set up just right. There are worries at LB and DB for the Sooners, but the sick talent on the defensive line will allow the raw talent in the back 7 to make plays. The Sooner defense has VHTs (Steele TM) all over the place, so it's a matter of time before they explode. Offensively, they are just sick. Sam Bradford was the best QB in the nation last year, and he has playmakers everywhere ... again. Murray and Brown are both battle tested, plus Jermie Calhoun and Justin Johnson are super frosh. All of these things are going to be fine behind an entire returning offensive line where 3 of them made either 1st or 2nd Team All Big 12. Loadholt and Robinson are 1st round talents, and Walker, Cooper, and Braxton are draft picks, possibly 1st day ... and all are seniors. If they can win the annual showdown with Texas (they will) and stay focused on the road, they'll play for the national title.

2.

Did you know Tech actually ranked 2nd statistically in Big 12 play last year? Some people have pegged them as surprise B12 South champs, but they don't have the same talent as OU in the trenches. Everybody knows about the offense, and it returns 10 starters. The pass defense for Tech was good last year, mainly because everybody ran it down their throat. They only generated 25 sacks and were -5 in turnover margin. Normally, with 8 returning starters, you'd expect improvement. However, TT doesn't have a lot of raw talent on hand on defense. Yes, those players will be a little better, but enough to take over the South? I don't think so. They have to travel to Norman, and it could decide the division.

3.

With the addition of Will Muschamp, the Longhorns could jump above Tech for #2 this year. However, I'm still not sold on Colt McCoy, and I think his struggles will continue. The loss of Jamaal Charles will also be felt, but it's hard to ignore the masses of highly touted players they have on the roster. Same deal with the defense - only 4 returning starters, but VHTs (Steele TM) EVERYWHERE. I think Deon Beasley is a star in the making, but the defense will need another year before it's dominant. 2009 could be a very special season for the Horns, but be patient through a 9-3 (6-2) season.

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Big 12 North

1.

Normally when a team comes out of nowhere (I predicted it last year though), they regress the next year. Not Missouri, though. They were the #1 team statistically in the Big 12 and lost little to the draft. A couple points of concern are the +13 in turnovers (signals a regression) and +2 in close games (signals a regression). However, at worst they'll lose 2 games in a mediocre North division. Tony Temple was better than people thought, and Franklin and Rucker were very good targets for Daniel. They return 10 of their top 11 tacklers, so the defense will improve, too. However, they generated only 30 sacks last year, and lose 6.5 with the graduation of Lorenzo Williams. William Moore is a stud at safety, but for the secondary's sake, the pass rush needs to get there.

2.

I really wanted to put Kansas at #3, but I couldn't. Just know this: they are going to lose at least 4 games overall, and probably 3 in conference. Their schedule is exponentially more difficult than a year ago: @ Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, v. Missouri, v. Texas, v. Texas Tech. They MIGHT lose 4 conference games. But I have to give them the benefit of the doubt. They return 6 starters from a potent offense, but they lose two 2-year starters from the line and a productive RB in McAnderson. Reesing will certainly regress, too. The defense returns 9 starters and 8 of their top 10 tacklers. Still, their +21 in turnovers and +3 in close games are two red flags.

3.

I originally had the Huskers pegged for #2, but that defense still scares the crap out of me. It will take more than 1 season for Bo Pelini to fix it. The offense should remain very good, and with a bit more rushing offense, it can keep the defense off the field. The biggest thing for the Huskers is to improve on the awful 13 sacks it produced on defense last year. You could have Champ Bailey, Deangelo Hall, Bob Sanders, and Adrian Wilson in the backfield and still get torched when you don't get pressure on the QB. Luckily, the Huskers return all 4 starting defensive linemen, and they're talented. Pelini can generate a pass rush with these guys. Still, 3-5/4-4 is probably the end result.

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If you're a Colorado fan, you'll probably leave feedback.

Best Damn Predictions in the Land: Big 10

2008-08-28T11:10:00.000-07:00

We're speeding this up because the GAMES START TONIGHT! The wait is over for football season - thank the Lord.

Here are my predictions for the final Big 10 standings.

1.

I'm not sure anybody could make a case for a team not named Ohio State for #1. Fans across the South have mercilessly mentioned that they think Ohio State is a fraud, but I don't buy it. Ohio State will make a run for the national title this year because this team is very, very good. They may lose a game or two in the conference, but they'll win the Big 10 easily.

2.

Losing Anthony Morelli is addition by subtraction, and Pat Devlin gives them the mobile QB they need. The defensive line losses this summer make me a little worried about this prediction, but they had such amazing depth to begin with. The young stable of running backs should be electric while dynamic. It's time for the big 3 (Williams, Butler, Norwood) to live up to expectations. I think Penn State will run the table at home in conference, and lose 2 road games to Wisconsin and Ohio State. The games at Purdue and versus Illinois/Michigan State will determine where State finishes.

3.

The Spartans are my #1 surprise team of 2008. They return, in my opinion, the best running back in the country in Javon Ringer, an underrated QB in Brian Hoyer, and 3 offensive linemen. They have some questions at wide receiver, but Mark Dantonio offenses at Cincinnati always threw the ball well. The defense needs to improve against the pass, and I think they will with 3 returning starters in the back. The Spartans won't get 40 sacks again, especially after losing 18.5 from Baldwin and Saint-Dic. However, as with the offensive pass game, Dantonio can find defense. He's one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and will be a hot commodity in the next few. The schedule helps Sparty. They get Wisconsin and Ohio State at home (win 1!) and they can beat Michigan on the road. I see 2-3 conference losses for the Spartans.

4.

The Badgers are getting a lot of preseason hype, and I can see why with 17 returning staters. They have 4 returning OL and 3 returning DL, so the trenches are well stocked. Honestly, I think Wisconsin could be anywhere from 1-4 in these predictions. I think they lose @ Michigan St, @ Michigan, and v. Ohio State. That would be 5-3 and a tie with Sparty. I'm fairly worried about their QB situation, but does it matter? Line up, give PJ Hill, John Clay, Zach Brown, and Lance Smith the ball, score. The end.

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I'm a big fan of the Illini. I was a Rashard Mendenhall fan in the summer of 07 and predicted a huge year for him. I was right. Illinois lived above expectations, though. They finished 3rd in the Big 10, but were 6th statistically. That's not a good sign. They lose THE reason they won so many games - Mendenhall. Juice Williams has potential, but he isn't the passer he needs to be. Benn and Co. at WR will be great, and they return 3 starters on the OL. If Dufrene can give them 1,000 yards, they should be formidable. Defensively, it's a mixed bag. They return Vontae Davis, superstar in the making, but lose J Leman and two other top tacklers. All told, they lose 5 of their top 7 tacklers, which never bodes well. The defensive line returns almost all their sacks, and Will Davis is a star. Illinois, with increased security from Juice and a solid year from Dufrene, could finish as high as #2 in the conference.

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Leave feedback if you feel it's interesting.

Best Damn Predictions in the Land: SEC

2008-08-28T09:53:00.000-07:00

I'm moving APP Breakdowns to tomorrow so I can officially get my predictions on the interwebs highway, as well as "Money Making Monday (Thursday Edition)" and the Immersion Effect.

No waiting, full throttle forward - SEC Predictions.

SEC East

1.

People are hesitant to throw their hat in the ring for the Florida Gators this year due to the still iffy defensive backfield situation. It didn't help that 47 more young Gators got hurt. However, I have one question for you. HAVE YOU LOOKED AT THEIR SEC SCHEDULE? They have 2 toss-ups in a road game at Tennessee and the World's Largest Orson Swindle Party with Georgia. Yes, they do have LSU, but it's in the Swamp, and Florida will be 5-7 point favorites. Thusly, I have the Gators pegged for 7-1 in conference, and representing the East in Atlanta.

2.

With the blinding spotlight fixated on Athens and Gainesville, the Vols are under the radar. This team won the East last year, and was one Aingean toss within a conference title. Pundits and fans alike point to the loss of Ainge and Jerod Mayo, as well as the addition of new coordinator Dave Clawson, as reasons to sell the Vols short. But let me tell you this: while Jon Crompton may not complete 67% of his passes and will have more INTs than Ainge, he'll make that offense more dangerous. He has a bigger cannon than Ainge, a healthier pinky, and has more wheels to make plays happen with his legs. The Vols have a tough SEC road though: v. Florida, @ Auburn, @ Georgia, v. Alabama, @ South Carolina. I expect a 6-2 conference record.

3.

Don't buy the hype. Yes, Georgia is insanely good at the skill positions. Yes, their defense is pretty good, too. However, two things have created a great wall between 3rd in the East and the MNC: the offensive line and the schedule. In the SEC, if you don't have a dominant offensive line, you're in for headaches every week. Think you don't need a line against perennial SEC bottom feeder Kentucky? Yeah, have fun picking yourself up off the grass when Jeremy Jarmon is laying on you. Georgia also has the Orson Swindle Party with Florida, a home game against Tennessee, @ Auburn, @ South Carolina, v. Alabama, and @ LSU. I see 3 conference losses, most likely Florida, LSU, and Auburn. This team has the talent to do what Florida did in 2006, though.

4.

The Gamecocks are the Chicago Cubs of the SEC. "Wait until next year" and "We're going to surprise some people this year" ring through Columbia like it was Wrigley Field. I think the term Lovable Losers fits, too, as Steve Spurrier has become a cuddly ol' ball coach, instead of rude ol' ball coach. The Gamecocks have the defense to win a conference title, really, they do. But they still have issues on the offensive line, they have to replace a very underrated RB in Cory Boyd (Mike Davis doesn't cut it, unless you're playing fridges), and I'm not sold on any receiver behind McKinley. Oh, and they no quarterbacks. None, nil, zilch, nada, nien. I believe the Spurriers will beat either UGA, LSU, or UT in Columbia, I also think they'll stumble at either Ole Miss or Kentucky in back to back road games. I see 4-4 this season, but 5-3 or 3-5 are very much in play.

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The short road back to irrelevance starts now for Kentucky. It won't be a total embarrassment, because that defense is actually pretty sick. However, Cat fans need to realize that Andre Woodson, Rafael Little, and Keenan Burton were the best QB-RB-WR trio the school has ever produced, and all 3 are gone. Curtis Pulley is gone, too. The Cats have a good offensive line, and two solid running backs, so we'll probably see a change of offensive pace. The defense is where they'll win some games. The defensive line is their best in who knows how long - Jarmon is a star in the making, Myron Pryor and Corey Peters are formidable in the middle. And they have, in my opinion, a future 1st/2nd round draft pick in cornerback Trevard Lindley. He's 6 feet tall, and as a freshman has 12 pbu, then, as a sophomore, had 11 pbu and 3 picks. His partner on the other side, Paul Warford ain't too shabby, either. Still, the offense will take huge strides backwards, and 2-3 conference wins will be the max.

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Vanderbilt was actually decent last year. They lost close games against Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee - win one, and they were probably in a bowl. But graduation has left a dearth of SEC starting experience. They have 0 returning starters on the offensive lost, lost their stud wide receiver, and have a QB controversy. Plus, the defense loses leader Jon Goff. Vandy does sport one of the best defensive backfields in the conference - DJ Moore had 83 tackles, 10 pbu, and 6 INTs; Myron Lewis had 12 pbu and 49 tackles; Reshard Langford had 65 tackles, 4.5 tfl, 8 pbu, and 2 INTs; Ryan Hamilton had 68 tackles, 2.5 tfl, and 5 pbu. Still, with only 9 starters returning for the team, they'll struggle to win a game in the SEC.

SEC West

1.

There has been a very common thread this offseason about Auburn. One person will rank them in the top 12 and/or to win the SEC West, and someone else will scream, "BUT THEY HAVE TWO NEW COORDINATORS AND A NEW OFFENSIVE SYSTEM!" Then I come in and say, "That's a long sentence to scream." Anyway, Auburn was better statistically last season than their final record showed. Their defense has NFL talent at every level, and it's deep. Ben Tate and Brad Lester won't wow you at running back, but that tandem gets it done in workman like fashion. They return every offensive line starter, so with a heavy dose of the running game, Kodi Burns and Chris Todd don't have to win games early on. Their conference schedule shapes up nicely, too. Their 3 toughest conference games are at home: LSU, Tennessee, and Georgia. They do travel to Alabama (where the streak will be broken). Auburn will get revenge at Miss State. Auburn will be 7-1 or 6-2, and as long as they beat LSU, 6-2 will win the West.

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It took me a very long time to decide between LSU and Alabama for #2. I go with LSU because I think both teams could finish 5-3, with LSU beating Alabama in Death Valley. Another reason: LSU is more likely to go 6-2 than Alabama is. LSU still has boatloads of talent at every position, and I'm probably overreacting to the Perilloux dismissal. Still, you can't feel comfortable with Andrew Hatch, no matter who you have around him. Oh, and what the hell is with the preseason hype for LaFell and Byrd? Yes, they're good, but they need to prove they're top tier receivers. The Tigers have 3 tough road games: @ Florida, @ South Carolina, and @ Auburn. I think they might lose all 3.

3.

The rebuilding continues, and 2008 will be another stepping stone to the West crown. The freshmen, as undoubtedly talented as they can be, are just that: freshmen. You can't expect new SEC players to win the conference. Hell, probably not in 2009, either, as they break in a new QB. 2010 will be the first season the Tide will be favorites to win the West. They'll show great improvement this year, though. Their record just won't show it that much. They will lose 3 conference road games with a couple landmines at home. Their offensive line will be one of the best in the SEC, and Terry Grant is poised for a breakout season. The defense is the worry, though. They have young talent everywhere, but young defensive players get eaten alive in the tough SEC, so I expect some struggles there. 5-3 is almost certain.

4.

The injury to Greg Hardy makes me seriously hesitate to do this, but I'm sticking to it. Oregeron was a great recruiter, but couldn't capitalize on the talent he brought in. Houston Nutt will change that - instant impact here we come. Jevan Snead, while new, should be serviceable at the very least. Enrique Davis and Cordera Eason are long on talent and short on experience. The offensive line returns 4 starters, so that should really drive their offense. The defense originally returned 9 starters, but Greg Hardy is done for the season - losing 18.5 tackles for loss cannot be replaced. Peria Jerry is a top tier tackle, and end Marcus Tillman can do some things to help curb the loss of Hardy. The linebackers and defensive backs have experience and will lead this team to 3 conference wins.

5.

I originally had the Hogs slated for last, but I think Bobby Petrino will sneak out a win they don't deserve. Their best chances for a conference victory are in Fayetteville against Alabama and Ole Miss, or on the road at Miss State. The 3 returning starters on the defensive line return 24 tackles for loss, which will help the four new starters at DB. The loss of Freddie Fairchild is also bad for this team. I do like Petrino as a coach (not a person), so I think they'll give some defenses fits. 1-7 or 2-6 is their ceiling this year.

6.

It's always funny when I completely disagree with the average joe fan about a team. People are saying, "Ooooo, watch out for State!" Sorry, State isn't going to be very good. They were beneficiaries of a +4 in close games, and were LAST in the SEC statistically. They also still don't have a QB. Dixon is overrated at RB, and the offensive line needs work. Their defense will be very good again, but they won't luckbox their way to a bowl game again. 1-7? I think so.

There it is - the best damn SEC predictions in the land. Come back in December and mock me or praise me.

APP Breakdown: Pac 10

2008-08-26T10:31:00.000-07:00

We keep going with another APP Breakdown, this time for the Pac 10. I believe the Pac 10 was the 2nd best conference in America, but are poised for a down year in 2008. However, here's the APP Breakdown from 2007.

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Oregon 115.9
2. Washington State 112.1
3. Washington 107.1
4. USC 103.3
5. Cal 101.2
6. Arizona State 100.6
7. Arizona 98.7
8. Oregon State 90.7
9. UCLA 90.5
10. Stanford 79.9

I'm surprised ASU ranked so low, barely above average. Outside of Stanford, there were no horrible offenses. Even UCLA, who I thought would have been worse, has a respectable score for 9th place. The Pac 10, who used to be known for ALL offense-NO defense play, had no absolutely outstanding offenses last year. The run/pass scores are below.

Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):

1. Oregon 148.3
2. Washington 147.2
3. UCLA 116.1
4. Oregon State 114.7
5. USC 109.1
6. Cal 99.6
7. Arizona State 83.1
8. Washington State 71.9
9. Stanford 57.2
10. Arizona 51.1

The Pac 10 had 4 very bad rush offense, though, one of them (Arizona) is understandable due to offensive system. Arizona State was surprisingly low, and will really need to improve that area to stay in the top 3 of the Pac 10.

Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):

1. Washington State 136.1
2. Arizona 127
3. Arizona State 111.5
4. Cal 102.1
5. USC 99.7
6. Oregon 95.9
7. Stanford 93.4
8. Washington 84
9. Oregon State 75.5
10. UCLA 75

So can we officially kill the "PAC 10=PASS PASS PASS ZOMG" theory? Only 4 offenses were any good, and the bottom 3 were awful. USC was right at average, even with a senior QB. Interesting.

Let's go to other side of the LOS.

Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. USC 150.3
2. Oregon State 115.7
3. UCLA 107.2
4. Arizona State 101.8
5. Cal 101.3
6. Arizona 100.9
7. Oregon 99.1
8. Washington State 88.4
9. Stanford 82.7
10. Washington 81.6

See? The Pac 10 was a defense driven conference last year. 6 teams were above average, and Oregon was right there, too. The bottom 3 weren't good, but again, not wretched. Below, as usual, are the run/pass breakouts.

Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):

1.USC 164.9
2. Oregon State 155.3
3. Arizona State 130.3
4. Oregon 109.2
5. UCLA 108.3
6. Arizona 97.4
7. Cal 90.3
8. Washington State 86.6
9. Stanford 78.1
10. Washington 64

The fact is: if you want to be a player in the Pac 10, stop the run. 5 of the top 6 rush defenses in the Pac 10 made a bowl. The top 4 finishers in the final standings are the top 4 in the standings in RDAPP.

Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP:)

1. USC 142.7
2. Cal 109.5
3. UCLA 106.6
4. Arizona 103.3
5. Oregon State 100.9
6. Washington 96.7
7. Oregon 94.2
8. Arizona State 89.7
9. Washington State 89.6
10. Stanford 85.9

Holy parity! Stanford's 85.9 would be better than last in most conferences. Arizona State's low score has to worry Sun Devil fans going forward. Cal rebounded well from a poor 2006 in pass defense to finish 2nd this past season.

Onto the final standings!

Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP)

1. USC 126.8
2. Oregon 107.5
3. Oregon State 103.2
4. Cal 101.3
5. Arizona State 101.2
6. Washington State 100.3
7. Arizona 99.8
8. UCLA 98.9
9. Washington 94.4
10. Stanford 81.3

Using this metric, Arizona State could be in for a couple more losses. They finished 2nd in the Pac 10 standings, but were 5th in CAPP. Cal finished 7th in the Pac 10, but were 4th statistically - they could move up. UCLA finished 5th overall, but 8th in CAPP - regression?

APP Breakdown: Big 10

2008-08-26T09:47:00.000-07:00

Well, I've gotten insanely behind, so today and tomorrow, I'll be posting APPs for the major conferences, so on Thursday I can post my major conference predictions. Yowza.

Here is the Big 10 APP Breakdown, without the bells and whistles.

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Michigan State 117.8
2. Wisconsin 108.4
3. Illinois 107.9
4. Northwestern 107.5
5. Penn State 105.6
6. Minnesota 104.7
7. Purdue 102.1
8. Ohio State 98.3
9. Michigan 91.2
10. Indiana 87.7
11. Iowa 72.9

I think the shocking thing is Ohio State at 8th, scoring a below average score. They need to improve on that if they want to win a national title. Below are the rushing and passing standings.

Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (ROAPP):

1. Illinois 161.9
2. Michigan State 131.2
3. Ohio State 125.2
4. Penn State 123.4
5. Wisconsin 119.3
6. Minnesota 92.6
7. Michigan 84.5
8. Indiana 73.9
9. Purdue 67.6
10. Iowa 63.8
11. Northwestern 61.8

The Big 10 looks to have had 5 very good rush offenses, then a bunch of horrid run games.

Pass Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (POAPP):

1. Northwestern 139.7
2. Purdue 127.2
3. Minnesota 113.2
4. Michigan State 108.2
5. Wisconsin 101
6. Indiana 97.4
7. Michigan 95.7
8. Penn State 93.5
9. Iowa 79.6
10. Ohio State 78.6
11. Illinois 67.6

I think this shows that you don't need a great passing attack to win the Big 10. The top 3 teams in the final Big 10 standings ranked 10th, 7th, and 11th, respectively, in POAPP.

Now, onto the defensive side of the ball.

Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Ohio State 167.5
2. Michigan 124.5
3. Penn State 108.5
4. Iowa 102.8
5. Illinois 97.2
6. Wisconsin 97
7. Purdue 94.6
8. Michigan State 94.3
9. Indiana 91.8
10. Northwestern 87.1
11. Minnesota 75.5

Defense wins in the Big 10. You had 1 completely dominant defense, another very good one, then a log jam from 4-9. Below are the breakouts for rushing D and passing D.

Rush Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (RDAPP):

1. Ohio State 244
2. Penn State 132.8
3. Illinois 118.7
4. Michigan 116
5. Iowa 112.6
6. Wisconsin 99.8
7. Michigan State 93.2
8. Purdue 86.1
9. Northwestern 83.4
10. Indiana 80
11. Minnesota 61.7

The ONLY thing that matters here is the absolute, complete, 100% savagery domination by the Ohio State rush defense. 244? I've never seen a score like that for any portion of APP, ever. Good Lord, that's sick.

Pass Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (PDAPP):

1. Ohio State 137.3
2. Michigan 131.8
3. Indiana 102.4
4. Purdue 101.3
5. Iowa 96.9
6. Michigan State 95.1
7. Penn State 94.9
8. Wisconsin 94.7
9. Northwestern 90.1
10. Minnesota 89.3
11. Illinois 86.9

I think what's surprising here is that even the bad teams in pass defense weren't awful. Sure, the bottom three scores aren't good, but for being the worst teams in the conference, those are respectable scores. Illinois even has the sick Vontae Davis on the field.

The big shabang is the final standings in the APP, where you can find hints of which teams will improve or regress.

Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP):

1. Ohio State 132.9
2. Michigan 107.9
3. Penn State 107.1
4. Michigan State 106.1
5. Wisconsin 102.7
6. Illinois 102.3
7. Purdue 98.4
8. Northwestern 97.3
9. Minnesota 90.1
10. Indiana 89.8
11. Iowa 87.9

The way to find the movers and shakers are to identify the teams who are 2 or more spots off from where they finished in the Big 10 standings. For instance, I tabbed Michigan State a team on the rise because, while they finished 8th or 9th in the Big 10, they were the 4th best team, statistically. Historically, that means WATCH OUT FOR THE SPARTANS! Also, it works the other way. Iowa finished 6th in the conference, but were the worst team, statistically. Look out below! You can find a couple others in there, too.

APP Breakdown: SEC

2008-07-30T06:00:00.000-07:00

Well, I've gone and wasted my summer by not writing here at the CFB Authority, and now, I'm down to 4 weeks until kickoff. I have all the APP Breakdowns to get to the public, I have my predictions out and about, and I have some other features before August 28th, too. Ouch. Maybe I'll cowboy up and do all of it.

For those of you who may not have followed the APP last year when I debuted it, here is a link that explains what APP is (and it's branches) and the 2006 SEC APP. I don't feel like explaining it in depth again, but basically, it takes the conference games of a team, looks at how they performed against those specific team in relation to their averages. It's better than straight statistics because it takes schedule strength into account.

Let's get onto the APP Breakdown for the best conference in the country, the Southeastern Conference.

Here is the SEC's Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Florida 119.9
2. Arkansas 117.7
3. Kentucky 110.5
4. LSU 110.4
5. Tennessee 101.5
6. South Carolina 100.6
7. Georgia 98.5
8. Ole Miss 98.4
9. Alabama 97.9
10. Auburn 88.1
11. Vanderbilt 80.5
12. Miss State 77.3

I think the most interesting note here is that Georgia ranked 7th in the conference offensively, and was a tad below average. Bulldog fans are incredibly hyped about their season, and rightfully so. However, they need to improve their overall offensive efficiency to win the conference. Also, notice Ole Miss at 8th. I find that surprising, as their offense didn't score a lot. With the additions of Enrique Davis, Jevan Snead, and Houston Nutt, I think they'll punch it in the endzone far more often.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

BREAKING NEWS COMING OFF THE WIRE AS WE SPEAK ..... Arkansas could run the ball really, really well! This isn't surprising, groundbreaking, or even interesting. We all knew this before the 2007 season even kicked off. I was surprised, however, that LSU was second in the conference, and it wasn't that close. Florida was 3rd, Auburn 4th, and Georgia 5th. For Arkansas, imagine how their statistics will change without McFadden and Jones.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

The Gamecocks had a wretched 64 ROAPP, which means they performed 36% below average! I would say the two big reasons were playcalling and the offensive line. Cory Boyd was actually a very solid back in the conference, but you know the Ol' Ball Coach: he becomes the Ol' Throw Coach. Miss State was 11th and Tennessee was actually 10th. I'm very worried about the Gamecock offense, because Blake Mitchell was a decent QB last year, and with NO quarterback and losing a good RB, what can they do?

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

The Cats have always been known to toss the pigskin around, and with a great collegiate QB in Andre Woodson and a nice package of receivers, why not keep it up? They scored a 133.2, so they were in the "great" category. They do lose Woodson and Burton, as well as a receiving RB in Rafael Little. South Carolina, Florida, and Tennessee were 2nd-4th, respectively.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

The only player who regressed more over his career than Brandon Cox was Georgia Tech legend Reggie Ball. Cox was horrific his last season at the Barn, so you can see why Ears went out to find a new coordinator and a new system. Auburn scored a 72.2, so they were bad, but not the worst ever. Vanderbilt was 11th, and Arkansas was 10th. Mississippi State was also bad here, too.

Now, the other part of the equation is the SEC's Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Auburn 129.1
2. LSU 112.2
3. Georgia 110.3
4. Miss State 104.3
5. Vanderbilt 102.8
6. Alabama 100.5
7. Florida 97.2
8. South Carolina 96.5
9. Kentucky 91.5
10. Arkansas 90.8
11. Tennessee 90.1
12. Ole Miss 88.8

Before I highlight any team scores, I want to point out that the SEC's disparity in defense from top to bottom is much smaller is than the offensive disparity. There is a 42.4 point difference between the #2 offense and the #12 offense. However, defensively, there is only a 23.3 point difference from the #2 defense to the bottom. Auburn was the only great defense in the conference last year, which is a big reason people are picking them to win the West.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

I think if people were going to bet on this beforehand, they would have chosen LSU. However, the Bayou Bengals didn't finish first, nor second, nor third. Auburn returns 5 of their front 7, but the two losses were Quentin Groves and Pat Sims - four huge shoes to fill. Still, I expect them back at #1 in 2008. Florida finished 2nd (everybody threw on them), Alabama was 3rd, and LSU was 4th. All four scored 120.6 or better.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Nice to see you again. When you can't run the ball, nor stop the run, in the SEC, you're bound to be in trouble. South Carolina definitely was last year. Ole Miss and Kentucky were the only other two schools comparable in rush defense issues. Carolina can blame some of the issues on injuries, and they get a boatload of front 7 players back in 2008. If they improve here, watch out.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

No weaknesses on the Auburn defense in 2007. They stopped the run cold, and also, with the benefit of two draft picks in Jon Wilhite (missed some games) and Patrick Lee at cornerback. Eric Brock was also steady at safety. Jerraud Powers and Zac Etheridge also played very well. South Carolina, Miss State, and Georgia also scored highly.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

I think I expected Tennessee to score poorly, but didn't realize they'd be last. Inexperience and an odd affinity for giving 20 yard cushions are the reasons for this. The Vols scored an 80.9, which isn't THAT bad for being the worst pass defense, but it's still far below average. Even jumping up to average would mean wonders for the team. Florida, Arkansas, and Alabama were almost as bad.

Now that we've broken it down, the most important aspect of this is to look at the Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP) and the 2007 conference finish in parenthesis:

1. LSU 111.3 (1st)
2t. Auburn 108.6 (4th)
2t. Florida 108.6 (5th)
4. Georgia 104.4 (3rd)
5. Arkansas 104.3 (6th)
6. Kentucky 101 (10th)
7. Alabama 99.2 (8th)
8. South Carolina 98.6 (9th)
9. Tennessee 95.8 (2nd)
10. Ole Miss 93.6 (12th)
11. Vanderbilt 91.7 (11th)
12. Miss State 90.8 (7th)

What you need to understand is that any team more than a spot off either direction either overperformed or underperformed. For example, Tennessee finished 2nd in the SEC, but was 9th (!!!) statistically, hinting at a regression in record in 2008. On the flipside, Auburn finished 4th, but was 2nd statistically, so expect a better record in 2008. Miss State is a team you need to bet on regressing, as well. They were the worst statistical team in the conference, but benefited from a lot of close wins.

Remember, there are other variables to take into consideration: close games, draft losses, returning starters, turnovers, and schedule. But this gives a nice little look into who could really surprise us in terms of 2008 play. I'm worried about my Vols.
6.

Fulmer Served Subpoena, or was he?

2008-07-24T10:15:00.000-07:00

I'll be busy all day today, but by now you've heard about this story. It's confusing, but my friend, Vol Freak, site owner of Volnation (best Vol forum on the net) has a great time line of how things have gone today. We still don't know what's up, but again, keep checking at Volnation for Freak's time line. It's worth the click through, seriously.

Fulmer/Subpoena Time Line @ Volnation.com

Javon Ringer: Darkhorse for Heisman?

2008-07-11T13:27:00.000-07:00

Every year, there are a handful of players that have the stats to be considered preseason Heisman candidates, but the major media outlets don't mention them. Thus, the average Joe fans don't warm up to them. Last season, I mentioned Rashard Mendenhall and Jon Stewart should be considered Heisman candidates, and they went out and had marvelous seasons (and still got no Heisman love). I thought what Rashard Mendenhall did was more impressive than what Colt Brennan did. That's a different entry, though.

This is all about my 2008 dark horse, Javon Ringer. The kid had an incredible 2007 campaign, and NOBODY is talking about it. In 2007, he racked up 1,447 yards, but did it on only 245 carries. For the math-disabled, that's 5.91 yards per carry - more than Beanie Wells, Ray Rice, Mike Hart, Tashard Choice, LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno, Steve Slaton, and a boatload of other great BCS conference running backs. Only Felix Jones, Mendenhall, Stewart, and Jamaal Charles ran for more ypc with over 200 carries from a BCS school. Ringer also had 35 receptions for 295 yards, so he has some versatility to his game.

In 2006, Ringer gained only 497 yards because he only had 86 carries. Why? Because he missed 5 games. He still had a sick 5.78 ypc. The year before, he had 122 carries for 817 yards - another disgusting ypc average of 6.7. It seems like Ringer has been the victim of toolittlecarryitis - that's a technical term, just trust me.

So, why isn't he being touted? Why isn't he receiving daily e-blows from fans on message boards? I truly don't know why - I have ideas, though.

1. The better known, but worse running back, Beanie Wells is in his conference, and plays for one of the wet dream teams of ESPN.
2. Average college football fans (the majority of football fans are average fans), don't do their own research.
3. He plays for Michigan State.

Here's a guy who has averaged over 6.1 yards per carry for his entire year. He finally got a nice amount of carries last season, and still kept the sick average up. His team is also on the right paper track to having a good 2008 - around 8 wins, maybe 9. He'll be JUST like Mendenhall and Stewart. People will notice him too late for the Heisman, but not too late for a 1st round draft pick.

Mark it down now - Javon Ringer is the best running back in the Big 10, and barring injury, you'll know it by week 6.

I Challenge Tom Dienhart

2008-07-08T20:38:00.000-07:00

Yeah, you read that correctly. I am laying down the gauntlet to former Sporting News blogger, turned Rivals.com somethingsomething. I've made no attempts to hide my disdain for Dienhart: mash it

So, now, I want to put the challenge out there, and hope it makes his way to him. Or, I could find his e-mail address at Rivals and just show him. Either way, this will be the most dramatic, awe-inspiring, fist-clenching face-off in the history of the world, maybe even the nation. Dienhart, I think I'm a better prognosticator of college football than you. I think I know more about what changes are truly important from season to season, and I think you, frankly, don't.

So, hopefully, my internet macho bravado has at least reeled you in thus far, Dienhart. What is this challenge, you ask? It's simple. We both predict the order of finish for every FBS (D-1A) conference for 2008. We can predict no ties. For every spot we're off for every team, we get a point. The lowest total wins. This is just like what Stassen does for college football magazines, except applied to our challenge.

It's obvious what's in it for me - a chance to massacre the one sportswriter who tilts me more than any other (of course, this does not apply to your character or anything - I bet you're an awesome dude). I get the chance to be the guy you'll tell your grandchildren about - "After my humiliation, my fingers shook every time they approached the keyboard. All because of Coffin! COFFFFFFFFINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!"

Oh, you're asking what you get out of it? Simple. First, you get a swell idea for a recurring blog entry every week at Rivals. We'll pump this up, see. I'll play the role of John Q. Public College Football Fan Who Loves the Game versus Tom Q. Dienhart College Football Writer Who Fans Think They Know More Than. College football fans will visit rivals.com weekly to see how the David versus Goliath battle is going. That's traffic, my friend. Not street traffic like the kind you should play in (ha, sorry), but site traffic. Site traffic = more moolah for Rivals, which means YOU GET A PAY RAISE EVEN IF YOU LOSE! Call Phil Fulmer to see how you should feel about that.

Second, it will be fun. I know I come off as a jackass in this entry, but I'm only trying to stir your emotions. I'm a gentle fellow, who loves football, Sudoku, grilled cheese sandwiches, and Pembroke Welsh Corgis. We will have a great time trading e-barbs and taunting each other weekly when you're surprise team (Iowa, hahaha) loses it's 7th game.

Lastly, you can shut up every person who has ever criticized you. Why do I say that? Because you'll beat the best. Errrr, the second best. SMQ didn't think of this idea, so you can't face the best. But you can face me, #2 in my own mind (how sad is that?). Hell, if you're as smart as you think, you'll crush me, my soul, and my future offspring. Wouldn't that make all your hard work worth it? No? Why not?

Dienhart, the line has been drawn. Will you cowboy up and cross it, or run to the hills like Steve Alford? We could even add some sort of PRIZE for the winner! Yeah, money or something. Or hookers. Or money for hookers. Whatever you like - Asian, reds, whatever. I bet you like the big booties. Anyway.

E-mail me at thepowerT@gmail.com if you want to communicate more on this. I'm dead serious. As Sun Tzu said, "The one who figures on victory at headquarters before even doing battle is the one who has the most strategic factors on his side."

2007 CGVRs

2008-07-02T06:00:00.000-07:00

If you've followed my blogs for even a month ... ever ... then you know that Close Game Variance Ratio is something that I very much believe in. It's basically Phil Steele's idea that I gave a name to. CGVRs are calculated by finding the net ratio a team built in close games. If Team X had 4 wins of 8 points or less, and 2 losses of 8 points or fewer, they had a +2 CGVR. If a team has a +2 CGVR or higher, you can confidently predict that they will NOT improve their record. If a team has a -2 CGVR or worse, you can expect them to improve their record the following season. I've added in the 2006 outcomes to the ol' database, so from 2001-2006, here is how accurate the CGVR machine has been.

+4 and up - Has occurred 43 times, with 93% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season
+3 - Has occurred 30 times, with 73% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season
+2 - Has occurred 62 times, with 68% of the teams having the same or worse record the next season

Does your team fall into the parameters?

Hawaii +5 (12-1)
Mississippi State +4 (8-5)
Virginia +4 (9-4)
Oregon State +4 (9-4)
Tulsa +4 (10-4)
Tennessee +3 (10-4)
Northwestern +3 (6-6)
Kansas +3 (12-1)
Arizona State +3 (10-3)
East Carolina +3 (8-5)
Memphis +3 (7-6)
Toledo +3 (5-7)
Florida Atlantic +3 (8-5)
Kentucky +2 (8-5)
LSU +2 (12-2)
Wisconsin +2 (9-4)
Michigan +2 (9-4)
Texas +2 (10-3)
Missouri +2 (12-2)
Boston College +2 (11-3)
NC State +2 (5-7)
Louisiana Monroe +2 (6-6)
Connecticut +2 (9-4)
New Mexico +2 (9-4)
San Diego St +2 (4-8)
Bowling Green +2 (8-5)
Miami, Oh +2 (6-7)
Temple +2 (4-8)

If your team is listed above, be afraaaaid, be verrrry afraaaaaid. Now, the other side of the coin: negative CGVRs.

-4 and worse - Has occurred 29 times, with 86% of the teams having the same or better record the next season
-3 - Has occurred 46 times, with 72% of the teams having the same or better record the next season
-2 - Has occurred 62 times, with 71% of the teams having the same or better record the next season

Again, here are the teams that apply:

Minnesota -5 (1-11)
Washington -5 (4-9)
SMU -5 (1-11)
Michigan State -4 (7-6)
Vanderbilt -3 (5-7)
Maryland -3 (6-7)
North Carolina -3 (4-8)
UCLA -3 (6-7)
UNLV -3 (2-10)
Northern Illinois -3 (2-10)
Kent State -3 (3-9)
Louisiana Lafayette -3 (3-9)
Alabama -2 (7-6)
Kansas State -2 (5-7)
Florida State -2 (7-6)
Miami -2 (5-7)
Duke -2 (1-11)
Arizona -2 (5-7)
TCU -2 (8-5)
Colorado State -2 (3-9)
Marshall -2 (3-9)
Nevada -2 (6-7)
Idaho -2 (1-11)
Utah State -2 (2-10)
W. Michigan -2 (5-7)

If your team is listed above, you can hold out hope that the stats are in your favor. As always, these numbers are only tools, and are not the ONLY thing to look at. But you can still amaze your friends this autumn.

Rich Brooks Capsizes

2008-07-01T12:44:00.000-07:00

This morning, WHAS Channel 11 out of Louisville, reported breaking news that a boat capsized, and one of the passengers was University of Kentucky head football coach Rich Brooks. The article also states that Brooks is fine and will be out on the river, fishing, again - even though fishing is bullshit.

We have an exclusive photo of Brooks after the boat capsized, when he attempted to swim to shore.

THAT AIN'T TRUE!

2008-06-11T13:50:00.000-07:00

Here you go. I expect you to use this, mostly on forums, when somebody says something completely incorrect. Like, let's say UGAFan4Lyfe says "Stafford is the best QB in the SEC," you post this.

I believe this line was the most underrated of Mike Gundy's rant. Use it at will.

Revisiting 2006 CGVRs

2008-06-10T07:00:00.000-07:00

In January of 2007, at my original Tennessee blog, I outlined the teams from 2006 that fell under the CGVR (Close Game Variance Ratio) parameters. CGVR is just the tool Phil Steele came up with years ago, but with a fancy name and specifically revisited every year. If you're new to CGVR, here's the deal: Mr. Steele found some strong statistical correlations between teams that either won or lost many close games and their record the next season. A close game is defined as any game that ends within one possession on the scoreboard (thus, 8 points). So if a team wins 3 close games and loses 1 close game, that team's CGVR is +2. Steele found that the correlations become strong at +2 and above and -2 and below. Teams with +2 or more cannot be expected to improve their record the next season, whereas teams with -2 or worse cannot be expected to regress the next season. Make sense? Good. Here are the 2006 CGVRs, the expectation, the 2007 record, and if the CGVR got it right.

Team	2006 CGVR	2006 Record	2007 Record
Wake Forest	+5	11-3	9-4
Auburn	+5	11-2	9-4
Florida	+5	13-1	9-4
Maryland	+5	9-4	6-7
Oregon State	+4	10-4	9-4
Rice	+4	7-6	3-9
Boise State	+4	13-0	10-3
Iowa State	+4	4-8	3-9
Arkansas State	+4	6-6	5-7
Kansas State	+3	7-6	5-7
Texas Tech	+3	8-5	9-4
Wisconsin	+3	12-1	9-4
Notre Dame	+3	10-3	3-9
Ohio	+3	9-5	6-6
Troy	+3	8-5	8-4
Boston College	+2	10-3	11-3
Texas A&M	+2	9-4	7-6
LSU	+2	11-2	12-2
Tennessee	+2	9-4	10-4
Georgia	+2	9-4	11-2
Kentucky	+2	8-5	8-5
Ohio State	+2	12-1	11-2
Purdue	+2	8-6	8-5
Rutgers	+2	11-2	8-5
Cincinnati	+2	8-5	10-3
Southern Miss	+2	9-5	7-6
Idaho	+2	4-8	1-11
Lousiana-Lafayette	+2	6-6	3-9

As you can see, Phil Steele's theory continued to be accurate. Twenty of the 28 teams that qualified did not improve their records, which is 71.4%. Also, every single team with a CGVR of +4 or more had worse records the next year, with over 2 less wins than in 2006.

Onto the other side of the coin.

Team	2006 CGVR	2006 Record	2007 Record
North Carolina State	-5	3-9	5-7
Memphis	-5	2-10	7-6
Eastern Michigan	-5	1-11	4-8
Florida International	-5	0-12	1-11
Louisiana-Monroe	-5	4-8	6-6
New Mexico State	-4	4-8	4-9
Colorado	-4	2-10	6-7
Duke	-3	0-12	1-11
Missouri	-3	8-5	12-2
Oklahoma State	-3	7-6	7-6
Vanderbilt	-3	4-8	5-7
Michigan State	-3	4-8	7-6
Illinois	-3	2-10	9-4
Air Force	-3	4-8	9-4
UAB	-3	3-9	2-10
Miami (OH)	-3	2-10	6-7
Clemson	-2	8-5	9-4
Florida State	-2	7-6	7-6
Alabama	-2	6-7	7-6
Mississippi State	-2	3-9	8-5
Iowa	-2	6-7	6-6
Minnesota	-2	6-7	1-11
San Diego State	-2	3-9	4-8
UNLV	-2	2-10	2-10
Houston	-2	10-4	8-5
Nevada	-2	8-5	6-7
North Texas	-2	2-10	2-10

Again, the theory holds water. Twenty-two of 27 qualified teams fit the mold. Overall, 42 of 55 teams that qualified somewhere within the parameters set my Phil Steele did what Steele predicted. That's 76.4% of the teams from last year - but people will still blow these facts off.

Coming later this week is the list of 2007 CGVR qualifiers.

Bitch, don't tackle me!

2008-06-07T21:50:00.001-07:00

APPs are Being Calculated

2008-01-31T18:53:00.000-08:00

I know this blog was just barely starting to get some traction before I went all emo after a breakup with my girlfriend of 5 years. But really, you don't give a damn about that, and I don't blame you. We're back for 2008 with more dedication and, more importantly, a better understanding of what is needed for a daily blog (which is what I want it to be).

I've got Adjusted Performance Percentages done for the Big 10 and SEC, and will begin posting them when I'm done with the BCS conferences. This offseason, I'll cover the mid-majors, too.

So, sit back, put your seatbelts on, because even though it's January 31st, it's always college football season.

Rashard Mendenhall Needs More Carries

2007-10-06T22:03:00.000-07:00

Rashard Mendenhall is the most underrated player in the Big 10, maybe even the entire nation. He's rushed for 839 yards on 129 carries through 7 games, but gets no Heisman hype, no future NFL star hype, nothing. A mention here or there as a good player, but nothing more. Why? Because Mike Hart? The Mike Hart who averages over 1 yard less per carry. Mendenhall averages the 7th highest per game rushing total amongst the BCS conference level teams. However, it's more because he's hamstrung by a coach who doesn't give him enough carries. Mendenhall averages a gaudy 6.5 ypc, which ranks better than the 5 of the 6 guys ahead of him: Hart, McFadden, Rice, Forsett, and Choice. Javon Ringer of Michigan State averages 7.1 ypc. Mike Hart has 1,078 yards on 200 carries. Give Mendenhall 200 carries to this point, and he has 1,300 yards.

Mendenhall also leads 5 of the 6 guys ahead of him in receiving yards with 200, behind only Ringer (again). Maybe I should do another article on Ringer, and he and Mendenhall are clearly the best running backs in the Big 10. Sure, Mike Hart can carry the ball 40 yards a game, but is that truly an asset? I think I'd rather have a Mendenhall who can get over 120 yards on 20 carries, combined with a fresh set of legs of a back-up, ala Felix Jones in Arkansas. The 1 running back approach is rare, mostly due to workload problems. For every game Mike Hart rushed 30+ times, it's another game he's taking away from his possible NFL career.

Mendenhall has been hit with the typical "non-preseason hype" bug, which happens to teams and players every year. For instance, Erik Ainge is the #1 statistical QB in the SEC, but he rarely gets pub. Mendenhall is in the same boat. Because pundits (most of them) didn't tag him as a star in July and August, he gets overlooked. However, if someone had a gun to my head, forcing me to choose a running back in the Big 10 to start for my squad, Rashard Mendenhall is the guy.

Below, I have put together a table that shows Mendenhall's ypc versus the 6 D-1A opponents he's faced, and compares his ypc to the average allowed by those defenses in their other games. I think it speaks for itself, and ends this piece very well.

Date	Opponent	Opp. YPCa	Rashard YPC	Change
9/1	Missouri	4.1	3.1	-1.0
9/15	Syracuse	4.9	9.4	+4.5
9/22	Indiana	3.7	7.9	+4.2
9/29	Penn State	1.7	4.2	+2.5
10/6	Wisconsin	4.3	8.4	+4.1
10/13	Iowa	3.1	4.5	+1.4
	ALL	3.6	6.6	+3.0

Parity Saturday

2007-10-01T07:31:00.001-07:00

I'm back after my own little September bye week. I spent the week recuperating, drinking, celebrating birthdays, saving the world, and watching the hour-long premiere of The Office. However, I did watch something called football on Saturday, and as you might have heard, some shit went down. A lot of shit, actually. So much shit, Nick Saban found time for it.

The weekend of upsets was shocking, intense, and a sign of the future. A future where cars can fly, and a future where Bob Barker is still somehow alive. It is also a future where "parity" in college football will be commonplace. I hate that word parity, though. There will still be programs like Oklahoma, USC, Florida, Ohio State that win 10-11 games a year, win conference titles, and fight for national titles. But, that murky area of teams rated 5-40 is going to be a mess. A beautiful mess if you like good football, but an ugly mess if you like order.

The talent gap between the have's and the have-not's is shrinking, and it's shrinking quickly - at the rate your peep does in cold water. The biggest reason is the limitation on scholarship players allowed for each program. But that's been in place for a long time. I think the biggest reasons are academics and hurt feelings. I guess off the field issues, too. You have a player like Willie Williams at Miami. He has more arrests than Suge Knight, but a building program like Louisville will take a chance on him. Then you have a player like Slick Shelley. He signed with Tennessee as a 4* WR in 2005, and never climbed into the WR rotation. He's now at Tulsa, and will be on the field next year. More players are transferring than ever before, and they're going to mid-major schools with inventive, unique head coaches.

It's not just the mid-majors, either. Bottom rung BCS conference schools are getting better, save Iowa State. Mississippi State beat Auburn pretty good, and Auburn turned around and beat Florida, who had looked very impressive just 2 weeks earlier. Colorado, a 2-10 last year (although not 2-10 worthy statistically) beat 4-0 Oklahoma, who everyone had recognized in the top 4 ultrateams that the SuperDevil had created. Kansas State scored by land, air, and special teams to kill Texas by 20. A Kansas State team that allowed 23 points to a pathetic Auburn offense held Texas to 21. And Illinois got a signature win for Ron Zook by upsetting Penn State.

The madness is everywhere, and it isn't going to stop. After Appalachian State beat Michigan, I looked at my friend and said, "It's starting, in 10 years, this will be like college basketball." And it will be, at least as much as it can be. We won't see a 65-team playoff, or any playoff, for that matter. But we will see mid-majors beat BCS conference teams more often. And not just Toledo-over-Iowa State wins. More like Troy-over-Oklahoma State wins. There are so many great athletes in this country right now, and they want to play football. You can find plenty of 4.45 kids who the huge schools overlook because they don't run a 4.42. You find those kids, put them in your system to get them the ball as early in their career as possible, and you flourish.

The change is happening, and I for one am excited to see it.

Immersion Effect: September 22nd Edition

2007-09-20T10:52:00.000-07:00

I took last week off due to some interesting changes in life, but I'm back. I don't think anybody actually follows this week to week, but it's new, so it'll take time. This week's games are okay, but nothing stands out as *the* game to immerse yourself in. However, with LSU already being a subject of this series two weeks ago, it made it easier to pick this weekend's immersion game.

Alabama was a team I pegged back in March as a darkhorse this fall, and Phil Steele made the same assertion. Their win over Arkansas was both dramatic and important. Saban and the Tide needed a victory like that - a game they would have lost last year, but won. They scored 41 points, something they did only once last year - against Louisiana-Monroe. You have to worry a bit about their defense, giving up 38 points and all. But, the Hogs offense, as everyone knows, has the stud running backs and a good offensive line. This week, with a more straight forward offense, I doubt Georgia scores too many on Saban's D, maybe 20. This game is much more important than the Florida State game next week, and Saban knows it. To stay with LSU in the SEC West, he needs to have his team win this game no matter what. How great would it be for these players and fans to see their team beat two SEC teams they usually would lose to? For Georgia, they need to bring the same defensive intensity they did 2 weeks ago in the loss to South Carolina. Alabama's offense is better at almost every position over the Cocks, so Georgia will be tested. I see this game staying close.

Georgia 20, Alabama 28

Drink of the Week
Crimson Tide
You'll need:
1/4 oz Southern Comfort
1/4 oz Sprite
1/4 oz Vodka
1/4 oz Coconut Rum
1/4 oz Raspberry Liqueur
1/4 oz Cranberry Juice
1/4 oz Maui Blue Hawaiian Schnapps

This one could get a little expensive, but a few things: 1.) You should have most of it anyway and 2.) Get the entire party to pitch in - it's the damn IMMERSION EFFECT people! Anyway, combine all that crap, chill over ice, and strain it into an old fashioned glass. Voila!

Recipe of the Week
Southern Grilled Barbecued Ribs
You'll need:
4 pounds baby back pork ribs
2/3 cup water
1/3 cup red wine vinegar
1 cup ketchup
1 cup water
1/2 cup cider vinegar
1/3 cup Worcestershire sauce
1/4 cup prepared mustard
4 tablespoons butter
1/2 cup packed brown sugar
1 teaspoon hot pepper sauce
1/8 teaspoon salt

Preheat oven to 350 degrees F (175 degrees C). Place ribs in two 10x15 inch roasting pans. Pour water and red wine vinegar into a bowl, and stir. Pour diluted vinegar over ribs and cover with foil. Bake in the preheated oven for 45 minutes. Baste the ribs with their juices halfway through cooking.

In a medium saucepan, mix together ketchup, water, vinegar, Worcestershire sauce, mustard, butter, brown sugar, hot pepper sauce, and salt; bring to a boil. Reduce heat to low, cover, and simmer barbeque sauce for 1 hour.

Preheat grill for medium heat.

Lightly oil preheated grill. Transfer ribs from the oven to the grill, discarding cooking liquid. Grill over medium heat for 15 minutes, turning ribs once. Baste ribs generously with barbeque sauce, and grill 8 minutes. Turn ribs, baste again with barbeque sauce, and grill 8 minutes.

Also, if you don't like your sauce TOO tangy or "vinegary," add a glop of honey and another spoonful of brown sugar to the sauce part of the recipe.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The ribs are going to be amazing, and I hope you can get all the necessary alcohol for the cocktail. If not, google "Crimson Coma" and you'll find a really simple, red cocktail.

Why is Anyone Surprised by Notre Dame?

2007-09-19T20:22:00.000-07:00

One of the biggest mainstream media storylines is Notre Dame sitting at 0-3, without scoring an offensive touchdown. From Rece Davis, to Sportscenter, to fanboys on forums, people are talking about Notre Dame before anything else in college football. And it's confusing me. On forums across the country, there is an underlying argument about Charlie Weis in comparison to Ty Willingham. People wonder why Weis isn't feeling pressure, and again, it's confusing me.

As the title asks, why is anyone surprised at Notre Dame's struggles? We all knew the losses they had coming into this season. It's impossible to expect that team to be any better than 1-2. Penn State and Michigan, in the preseason, were in the top 20. Georgia Tech, too. So why would anyone reasonably expect better than 1-2? You shouldn't have. 0-3 is very understandable for a young team.

Remember, this team lost a 1st round draft pick and all-time leading passer in Brady Quinn. They lost their top 2 wide receivers who combined for 1,924 yards and 27 touchdowns! They also lost the most underrated player on the entire team - Darius Walker. He ran for over 3,000 yards in his 3 seasons, and in his senior year, he had 1,267 yards at 5 yards a pop, plus he caught 56 passes! All in all, the offense lost their top 4 playmakers to the NFL and MLB.

Defensively, the losses were heavy, too. They had a 2nd round draft pick in DE Victor Abiamiri gone, along with 5th round pick DT Derek Landri, and starter Chris Frome graduated. Landri and Abiamiri combined for 17.5 sacks, or 56.5% of the sacks for the entire defense. Losses were rough in the secondary, as well. FS Chinedum Ndukwe was 2nd on the team in tackles, and in my opinion, a more dynamic player than Tom Zbikowski. CB Mike Richardson was a fulltime starter and was drafted by the Patriots.

All in all, of the 5 returning starters on defense, only Maurice Crum and Zbikowsi are dynamic. Trevor Laws at DE can be one, too. Offensively, TE John Carlson is about it. C John Sullivan returned from an already mediocre line that 3 lost starters.

Now, keep in mind of the stats. The offense only returned 74 starts, with 50 coming from Carlson and Sullivan. The defense only returned 125 starts, 35 from Zbikowski.

So, again, why is anyone surprised?

Now, the Weis/Willingham debate. Some people wonder why Weis's seat isn't a bit warm, because you know, Ty only got 3 years. It comes down to 2 numbers: 15 and 19. The former is the number of wins Ty had in 2003 and 2004, with the latter being the number of wins Weis had in 2005 and 2006. Period. Willingham had a 10-3 season followed by a 5-7 season. Weis? 9-3 and 10-3.

While I don't need to go on, I will. In Willingham's 10 win season, ND outscored opponents by an average of 5.4 ppg, and in 2003, they were outscored by an average of 6 ppg. In Weis's 2005, they outscored the enemy by an average of 12.2 ppg, and in 2006, 7.2 ppg.

Starting to make sense? Good. Also, keep in mind Notre Dame is starting 7 freshmen and sophomores on offense. They put together the #8 Rivals recruiting class this past February, and the same rank in 2006. As of right now, for 2008, they are #1. Willingham had #12 in 2003, but #32 in 2004. So, Weis is taking these wins and making the future brighter. But he needs time, and he's earned it. It's unfair to expect a young team to keep pace with a team that had the best 2 year win total at ND since 1992-1993!

So, I ask, why are you surprised?

Money Making Monday: Week 4

2007-09-17T12:10:00.000-07:00

So far, I'm making money, but it's a slow grind. There will certainly be a week where I make a big splash. Still, I'm up so far.

YTD: 19-16 +1.4u

Kentucky +7 @ Arkansas

Kentucky will be able to throw all over the Razorbacks, and the Hogs will run all over the Cats. The O/U is out yet, but when it is, I'm hitting the over. Arkansas's defense isn't any better than Louisville's, and while their offense as a whole isn't as good as the Cards', their run game is out of this world. I think Kentucky with a senior QB can go into Fayetteville and not get rattled. A touchdown is a big gap when I think the visiting Wildcats could win outright.

Georgia Tech -3 @ Virginia

Tashard Choice might be out for this game, but I still love the number. Virginia is a wretched team with a wretched offense. They only scored 22 on a bad North Carolina defense, and this Ramblin Wreck defense is for real. Honestly, if Georgia Tech only scores 14 points, they should cover. GT allowed over 400 yards passing to Boston College, but BC has one of the best QBs in the country with a dynamic offense. BC still only scored 24. I like the under in this game, whenever it comes out.

Connecticut @ Pittsburgh -7

This has moved to 8.5, so I feel good about the bet. Pitt's defense has looked really good so far, which is something they didn't have last season. Connecticut barely beat Temple, and we saw with Navy that if you struggle with Temple, you end up being pretty average. UConn loves to run the ball, and Pitt held a very good running Spartan team to 2.8 yards per carry. Hell, UConn ran for only 3.2 ypc against Temple. Blowout alert.

San Jose State +1 @ Utah State

This has gone to +3.5, so I'm not feeling too confident. I guess I'm expecting SJSU to play like they did last season. Utah State is awful, but not as awful as I anticipated. Still, this is essentially a pick at the number I got, and I think SJSU is good enough to win 6/10 times. Isn't it weird to have a write up on a game like this?

Purdue -11.5 @ Minnesota

This moved to -14 within minutes, so I feel damn good about my number. Minnesota is absolutely awful defensively, and Purdue will put up 45+, maybe even 60. Whatever the O/U is, I'll be inclined to get the over. The Gophers are awful - gave up 42 to FAU! Jesus, they have given up OVER 30 points to every team they played - FAU, Miami (OH), and Bowling Green. Two MAC teams and a Sun Belt team. Ouch.

Arizona @ California -17

Revenge game for the Bears, and we saw what they did in the revenge game with Tennessee. Arizona was JUST beaten by New Mexico 29-27 on Saturday. Cal's offense, obviously, is on another level or 8 than UNM. Arizona's offense is still bad, but now inconsistently bad. Cal's defense is definitely a question, but I don't see them, with all the incentive to beat the hell out of Arizona, letting up. Arizona won on a fluke last year, and cost Cal the Pac 10 title. Cal rolls, I think.

Duke @ Navy -10

I've been bitten betting on Navy so far, but this one seems like a good bet. Duke was completely demolished by UConn on September 1st, and UConn is the only team that runs close to as much as Navy. Navy's offense is a lot better than UConn's, so I ecpect Navy to rack up the rushing yards and keep the already awful Duke offense on the sideline. Yes, Duke won a game, but 10 points? C'mon!

Check link at left as usual for updated slate.

Money Making Monday - Week 3

2007-09-10T13:20:00.000-07:00

Last week, I went 8-7, but it looks a lot better after the early games were 1-3.
Year to Date: 12-10 +1unit

TCU (-8) @ Air Force

TCU played Texas a lot closer than that final score indicated. It was 10-10 going into the 4th quarter! Air Force did beat Utah, but I think Utah is nowhere near as good as I anticipated. Also, go look at the last 2 games from these two teams. TCU has owned the Falcons. I hate road favorites, but I like this play. TCU's D will stifle that option.

Texas (-20) @ Central Florida

UCF alrighty bit me once this season when the upset NC State in Week 1. Still, this number seems like Vegas responding to the average fans overreacting to poor Texas play in the first 2 weeks. I think the Longhorns got some much needed confidence in the 4th quarter last week, and will beat a very below average Knights team. I only need a 3 touchdown win.

Ball State @ Navy (-5')

Really? Another line that seems too good to be true. Which means I'll get it wrong. Navy lost by 17 to Rutgers on national TV, but Ball State isn't Rutgers. Ball State is probably one of the 6 best teams in the MAC this year, MAYBE, but Navy beats up the stinkies pretty well. And Ball State is a stinky. Run run run all over them.

Ohio State (-4) @ Washington

Beautiful. Ohio State struggles with Akron, Washington beats Boise State, and we have this line. 4? If you combined the best players of Boise State and Syracuse, you wouldn't even touch the speed that Ohio State has. Washington beat an awful awful Syracuse team, and then beat a Boise State team that isn't the 2006 version. This Boise team is a 9-3 team, I think. This is too little of a line. I've been wrong on Washington for 2 weeks in a row, so take that for what it's worth.

Check the link on the left side for updates throughout the week.

Couch Potato September 8th - Block B

2007-09-08T12:32:00.000-07:00

Main Game:
Oregon @ Michigan
3:33 EST: No wagers on this game, because, who in the hell knows what to expect. Half the people say Michigan will be fired up. The other half are focusing on last week's Appy State loss and Oregon's defense getting pushed around by Oregon. The over of 64.5 seems reasonable, but I'm staying away from this game like Mark Mangino stays away from salads.

3:42 EST: Chad Henne is awful. Awful like es cargo. Awful like Ann Coulter. One route in the entire play, and he throws it into double coverage. The return on the INT was 60 yards. I have the Ducks finishing 2nd in the Pac 10, so I'd like for them to give me some confidence today.

3:44 EST: Jon Stewart battles his way to the 1, after multiple plays from Oregon's offense that already show you that the Wolverines are awful on defense.

3:50 EST: Big mistake not scoring from the 1. FG good for a 3-0 lead. They will regret those 4 points lost. Dennis Dixon is going to shred Michigan today ... like a block of cheddar cheese.

4:01 EST: Adrian Arrington FLOATED! Like ... David Blaine style floated. Henne with the smart throw, but Arrington FLOATED! He went up and got it with his momentum taking him out of bounds, but he levitated and got a foot in bounds easily. Neither of these teams can play a lick of defense.

4:14 EST: Oregon is pwning the Michigan defense. That is all.

4:19 EST: Oregon misses FG. That's now 7 points they screwed themselves out of.

4:41 EST: Oregon goes for it on 4th and 2 when they could have easily taken the FG. They score, to make it 18-7 with the PAT. This game could easily be 24-10 right now, but some missed FGs from both teams, and a 1st and GL at the 1 wasted by Oregon. In the 2nd quarter, it's clear that Michigan will need to score almost every possession to win this game. The defense stinks like spoiled milk.

4:59 EST: I'm not sure I can find more ways to tell you how awful this Michigan defense is. Oregon touchdown on a FAKE statue of liberty. It's now 25-7, and Michigan has shown ZERO ability to stop a versatile offense. Michigan can't fix the defense - it's that bad. They might lose 6 games because of it. It's an embarrassment.

5:06 EST: Holyyyyy crap. Another Oregon touchdown, 1 play, 7,000 yard pass, nobody close to the receiver. 32-7 Oregon with 3:03 left in the FIRST HALF! Lloyd Carr might not make it through the season. Seriously. These fans are booing, and mostly booing HIM, during the 2nd game of the season. If he makes it through January 1st as head coach, it won't be a day longer than that before he's fired. His players aren't fighting for him, regardless of what they say. Just watch Arrington or Manningham near the sidelines. They step out of bounds without any kind of tackle pressure. The Wolverines this year are mentally weak, and should be ashamed of themselves.

5:13 EST: There it is again. A subtle piece of evidence that Michigan is so poorly coached. Or have idiot players. Henne scrambles out of the pocket, has around 5 yards ahead of him, but runs laterally at the LOS so he can throw it. Everyone is covered, so he steps out of bounds FOR A LOSS OF TWO. Unbelievable.

Secondary Game:
NC State @ Boston College (for now)
3:48 EST: Boston College has it all on offense. If their defense can maintain this intensity all season long and continue to create turnovers, they'll be in the hunt for an ACC Title. Tons of football to play, though.

Random Other Thoughts in Block B:

3:53 EST: Washington takes a quick lead over Boise State 7-0. I have the Broncos -3, sooooo let's hope that isn't a sign to come.

4:15 EST: Crap, Boise State is down two touchdowns already to Washington. I told myself to quit playing small, road favorites. I never learn.

4:58 EST: Washington is a different team this season. I know Syracuse is nothing special, but Boise State is a quality opponent this year. Locker is a stud, and my money for THAT game is going to be gone.

Couch Potato September 8th - Block A

2007-09-08T09:09:00.001-07:00

For the Block A games (12-3 EST), I'll be giving the "LAST CHANNEL" button a good workout. My main channel will be ABC with:

Miami @ Oklahoma

12:11 EST: Loud as hell "Boomer Sooner" during the pregame build up. That cheer is one of the two or three best in college football.

12:20 EST: I know it's early, but the Sooners offense looks good against one of the most talented defenses in the nation. Murray, Patrick, and Brown are interchangeable and they take a lot of pressure off Bradford.

12:27 EST: Nice pitch and catch for a touchdown for the Sooners. Bradford's audible shows he's wise beyond his rFr years. Malcolm Kelly is underrated.

12:38 EST: Completely horrible breakdown on punt attempt for OU. He recovers it 7 years later, at their own 8. Do you possibly kick it out of the endzone there?

12:43 EST: Big hold for the Sooners. Kept Miami to a field goal, and keeps my early hopes for a final score under 43 in line.

12:51 EST: Another touchdown for Kelly from Bradford, 14-3 OU in the 1st quarter. My under of 43 might get smashed.

1:07 EST: Another touchdown for OU, on a fumble return. Under review, still a touchdown. My U43 is toast, I guarantee it.

1:40 EST: Touchdown Miami. Kyle Wright needs to be their full fledged starter. Enough musical chairs. 21-10, almost halftime. Only 12 points below my U43 wager. Crap.

2:30 EST: Touchdown Oklahoma to make it 28-13. If anybody scores, I lose. With 7:22 left in the 3rd quarter, I kiss that money goodbye.

2:49 EST: Oklahoma FG, 31+13=44>43. UGH, this was one of my more confident wagers. We'll bounce back. 4th quarter starting, this one is basically over.

Secondary channel:
Nebraska @ Wake Forest

12:12 EST: I have a wager on this game, so it brings my interest up a bit more. I think Wake is a fraud, considering last season they were +5 in close games, and I'm fading them against any good team this year, regardless of venue.

12:31 EST: Wake's offense looks better than I expected. Micah Andrews has great vision and patience. Nebraska had a poor pass defense last year, but Wake doesn't scream "pass happy" in any language.

1:01 EST: Uggggh, get that in the endzone Huskers! FG good, 6-3 Nebraska. Missed opportunity.

1:12 EST: Wake goes ahead 10-6 in the 2nd quarter. My Block A wagers aren't looking so hot right now.

1:34 EST: Touchdown Huskers! Beautiful throw from Keller, 13-10 Nebraska going into half. Good momentum shifter for my bet. :)

2:22 EST: Wake TD, then Nebraska touchdown to make it 20-17. Really was confident about Nebraska -8, but they'll need to improve their play over the last 23 minutes of the game for that to happen.

2:37 EST: Keller throws an interception. Excellent. I might go 0-4 this morning.

3:29 EST: Nebraska gets lucky to win this game, and I'm unlucky to not cover. Nebraska did not look good today, and the Missouri game might be ugly.

Random Other Thoughts in Block A:

12:27 EST: Akron safety! tOSU's OL was owned on that play. Weird.

12:32 EST: Marshall is holding WVU to 6 points with 1:51 left in the 1st half. What .. the ... hell? Marshall gave up 31 to Miami, who, until they prove otherwise, is an average offense.

12:41 EST: Marshall leads West Virginia 13-6 at halftime. That's insane! The Mountaineers will get it figured out, though, and probably win by 14+.

12:58 EST: Alabama with an early 10-0 lead. I've told everybody I can that Alabama will beat Vandy pretty handily. I have Alabama -3.

1:03 EST: West Virginia ties it up early in the 3rd quarter. Both teams are tossing it around, rather than working the ground game.

1:44 EST: Buffalo killing Temple, which is good for my wallet. And yes, if you wager, then CARE about Buffalo at Temple, you're in too much.

2:25 EST: WVU, close to a final, is killing Marshall by 25+. If that holds up, they'll cover. I called it correctly at halftime.

2:50 EST: Colorado State should be up 14-7 right now on Cal, but it's 7-7. CSU is giving Cal fits.

3:28 EST: At halftime, Cal leads Colorado State 17-14. This game seems just like Tennessee-Air Force last season. An emotional letdown for the Bears?

Deep Thoughts with Lou Holtz: Week 2

2007-09-07T11:40:00.000-07:00

Boy, after one week of gamesh, thingsh are already heating up! The Univershity of California Golden Bearsh really took it to the Volsh. I told you it wouldn't be closhe and it washn't. Appalachshshian Shtate ish the biggesht shtory of the year, but I think Michshigan will reshpond very well. Did you shee my shegment on Shportshcshenter thish morning? Pep Talk with Lou Holtzsh? It wash fun to do, becaushe it reminded me of my coaching daysh.

-Thish week, the obvioush game to watch is Louishiana Shtate Univershity againsht the Virginia Tech Hokiesh. The Hokiesh didn't look very good lasht week againsht Easht Carolina, but Frank Beamer will have them ready for Baton Rougshe. Matt Flynn will facshe a real tesht thish week with that Hokiesh defenshce led by Xavier Adibi and Thomash Flowersh. I think the Bayou Bengalsh win a closhe one.

-The other big game ish in Athensh, Georgia where the Bulldogsh take on Shteve Shpurrier and the Gamecocksh of Shouth Carolina. Thish Gamecock team ish the besht they've had down there, and they shshould eashily win againsht a team with no defenshce. I'd be shurprished if the Univershity of Georgia keepsh it within two touchshdownsh.

-The Univershity of Oregon Ducksh travel to the Big Houshe thish weekend, attempting to add another lossh to the Michigan win lossh record. Can they do it? No. It will be like a cricket inshide of a glassh jar - not even closhe. Dennish Dixon played too much basheball thish shummer to be prepared for an athletic Michigan defenshce. Mike Hart ish going to rushsh for over 200 yardsh. Did you shee the Houshton offenshive line lasht week? Amazshing!

-Notre Dame ish going to bouncshe back thish week from a fluke lossh lasht week. Jimmy Claushen will shtart hish Heishman campaign thish weekend when the Irishshsh upshet Penn Shtate in Beaver Shtadium. Anthony Morelli hashn't proven he can win gamesh yet, and they don't have Tony Hunt thish year. Notre Dame thirty-shix, Penn Shtate, ten.

What a great shlate of gamesh to watch thish weekend! I'll check in next Thurshday.

Immersion Effect: September 8th Edition

2007-09-06T11:53:00.000-07:00

I hope you took advantage of the immersion effect last week. This week, and weeks to follow, should be a lot better, considering the Bay Area isn't a rich college football area. This week's game has taken a hit, after a lackluster showing by one of the teams last week. Still, a top 10 game against two gritty teams makes for an exceptional immersion weekend.

LSU is coming off a simple victory over Mississippi State where the Bulldogs gave LSU everything they needed to whip their asses. LSU didn't show much, and didn't need to. Virginia Tech is coming off a tough win on an "emotional" day over East Carolina, who has become a thorn in the side for many big time schools. If Virginia Tech plays like they did against ECU last week, LSU will win by 3 touchdowns. Something tells me that they'll arrive in Baton Rouge ready to play and this game will be a great one.

Matt Flynn won't have the pleasure of throwing with no hands in his face, as the Hokies always have an excellent defense. Their D blitzes like they were being outlawed the next day. On the other side of the coin, Sean Glennon, who's average as it is, gets to face one of the two best defensive lines in the country. Brandon Ore will need to find a way to help alleviate the pressure on Glennon, but against the LSU defense? Good luck.

My prediction: LSU 17, Virginia Tech 10

Drink of the Week
Hurricane
You'll need:
Light rum
Dark rum
Passion fruit juice
Lime juice
Cherry
Pineapple spear
Froofy paper umbrella

Grab your hurricane glass, or if unavailable, a Collins glass or a highball. A tall glass, okay? Fill it with ice. Add 1 oz. of your dark rum, 1 oz. of your light rum, 1/2 oz. of passion fruit juice, and 1/2 oz. of lime juice. I usually stir for a little bit. Then, if you really want to, add a squeeze of lime (I just add a touch of the lime juice), add the cherry, and add the pineapple spear on the side of the glass. Then the umbrella. This is the drink of Mardi Gras. Drink up, but be ready for hangovers.

Recipe of the Week
Chicken and Sausage Jambalaya
You'll need:
1 tablespoon vegetable oil
1/2 pound andouille sausages
1 large onion, chopped
2 ribs celery, chopped
1 green bell pepper, chopped
2 cloves garlic, minced
1 1/2 cups long-grain rice
3 cups canned low-sodium chicken broth
1/4 teaspoon cayenne pepper
2 bay leaves
1 1/2 teaspoons salt
1 pound boneless, skinless chicken breasts, cut into 1-inch pieces

Heat oil in large saucepan over medium heat. Add sausages and cook until browned, about 8 minutes. Transfer sausages to cutting board. Cut sausages into 1/4-inch slices. Pour off all but 1 tablespoon fat from the pan.

Add onion, celery, bell pepper and garlic to saucepan. Cover and cook over medium-low heat until vegetables begin to soften, about 5 minutes. Add rice, broth, sausage, cayenne, bay leaves and salt. Bring to a boil. Reduce heat to low. Cover and simmer 15 minutes.

Stir in chicken. Cover and simmer until chicken is just done and rice is tender, about 5 minutes longer. Remove from heat. Let stand, covered, about 2 minutes.

Recipe reprinted by permission of Food and Wine. All rights reserved.

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I was going to post a gumbo recipe, but I think this should do you just fine for this weekend. I know I'll be having both the drink and the jambalaya starting Friday night. Hope this makes your weekend more of a blast!

Money Making Monday: Labor Day Holiday Edition

2007-09-05T07:34:00.000-07:00

I'm back from Berkeley and still feeling a bit tired. When you travel to see your team lose, it's taxing on your emotions. I did find time last night to place some wagers for the week, and this week will be heavier than last week, I expect. Right now, four plays for you to read about.

Nebraska (-8) @ Wake Forest

It's no secret that I think the Deacons are going to have a losing record and finish 5th or 6th in their division. I told myself to fade this team early until the rest of the country caught up. Nebraska did beat a typically solid Nevada team, but that Wolfpack team played awful. The Huskers are better than the Deacs at almost every position, and the home field advantage is average for Wake. Lastly, Nebraska is better than Boston College by a few points, as well.

Kent State @ Kentucky (-13)

I've made a point to say that Kentucky could regress a bit this season, possibly into bowl-less land. However, as decent a mid-major as Kent is, Kentucky is going to rack up points in this one. I like the over, and I'll end up adding that, too. My only only worry is that Kentucky could be looking ahead to Louisville next week. Kent beat Iowa State last week, but the Cyclones are nowhere near dynamic on offense as the Wildcats.

Boise State (-3) @ Washington

You can find this at -2' at some sites, but not any that I have money at. Boise State is still a very good team, but aren't being touted as much as last season. Washington, who I think could still finish last in the Pac 10, looked very good (at least in comparison to their usual play) at Syracuse, but Boise State is like ... a stratosphere better than them. This one is a bit of a gut play, which is good. Last week, I passed on a lot of gut plays, and many of them would have made me money. I believe this line is a bit of a reaction to Washington playing their best game in years. Overreact much?

Alabama (-3) @ Vanderbilt

In sports betting, I'll snap a man's neck, then stab him in the thigh with a pen if he ever says a game is a "lock." That word is only used by touts who want to steal your money. No game is ever a lock (coughAPPYSTATEcough), and I'll never tell you I have a lock. Ever. However, I will say that sometimes I'm quite confident about a certain wager. Sometimes I lose those. This is one where my confidence level is really high. Fans still remember Alabama going 6-7, and Vegas knows it. Alabama is a different team, mostly because of Saban. Their attitude is different, which is more important than anything else. This game has been close the last few seasons, but I think the Tide wins by 10 or more.

Indiana (PK) @ Western Michigan

Air Force @ Utah (-7')

Miami @ Oklahoma U43

Southern Miss @ Tennessee O50

Kent State @ Kentucky O51

UAB @ Florida State U51'

Nevada @ Northwestern U53

Toledo (+3) @ Central Michigan

Buffalo (+3') @ Temple

Mississippi State (-6) @ Tulane
Check the link to the left for updated Week 2 cash monaaayyyys.

Updated Money Making

2007-08-31T12:23:00.000-07:00

I added some more plays to this week, but they are just 2 totals. Here is the official card for the week, with 1 win already on UNLV.

Tennessee (+5.5) @ California

San Jose State @ Arizona State (-14.5)

Central Florida @ NC State (-7.5)

UNLV (-6.5) @ Utah State

Ole Miss @ Memphis (+3)

San Jose State @ Arizona State O49

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame U46

Deep Thoughts with Lou Holtz: Week 1

2007-08-30T10:31:00.000-07:00

After a week off, I'm sho ready for thish football sheashon to shtart! There are shome real good gamesh thish firsht week, sho I'll give you my predictshions for theshe gamesh.

-Oklahoma Shtate travelsh to Athensh to take on the Bulldogsh of the Univershity of Georgia. With the lossh of Paul Oliver, the Bulldogsh only have three playersh on that defenshe with shtarting experiencshe. The Cowboysh have a dynamic offenshe with Bobby Reid, Dontrell Shavage, and Adariushshsh Bowman. Thish game shshould be a high shcoring affair becaushe neither team hash a proven defenshe. I give the edge to the Univershity of Georgia, becaushe of home field advantagshe.

-On Monday, we get the treat to shee the Bowden Bowl again, which ish like the Hatfieldsh and McCoysh but drunk on moonshshine. Florida Shtate Univershity had a rough sheashon lasht year but look like a perfect rebound team thish sheashon. The Clemshon Tigersh ended the sheashon on a downward shpiral. But when you return playersh like CJ Shpiller and Jamesh Davish, you can trot your horshe with any shtable you want. Playing in Death Valley ish a tough tashk, but at Shouth Carolina, we did it every year. I think the Sheminoles pull out the victory on the road in a hoshtile environment.

-In Shouth Bend, the great Fighting Irishsh hosht the Georgia Tech Univershity Yellow Jacketsh. Lasht sheashon, the Irishsh eshcaped with a W on the road in Atlanta. Shome people think the Irishsh will rebuild thish sheashon, but they'll win at leasht 10 gamesh, maybe all of them. The Yellow Jacketsh have to replachse a great shtarter in Reggie Ball, who wash unfairly criticized down there. He wash a good quarterback, but his backup, now shtarter Taylor Bennett is the shecond besht quarterback in the country behind Evan Shsharpley. The Irishshshsh shshould control this game throughout.

-Tennesshee goesh crossh country to try to upshet the Univershity of California Golden Bearsh. Lasht sheashon the Volsh laid the wood to the Bearsh like a shouthern mule laysh the wood to the shide of the barn. But the Volsh rushshed for only 104 yardsh last season. 104 yardsh! Cal ish out for revengshe and will get in Berkeley, posshibly by a lot.

Immersion Effect: September 1st Edition

2007-08-29T10:19:00.000-07:00

This is something I've been waiting weeks for. The weekly staple of this blog that I think people will really enjoy. I know that every Saturday, especially when my alma mater is playing a scrub, I like to get immersed into the game of the week. I like to eat what people at the game would eat, drink what they'd drink, etc etc etc ad nauseum. So, I'm bringing that to you every week with at least 1 recipe and 1 cocktail recipe (unless the home city of the GOTW has a beer or wine specific to it). Anyway, so, this week, we're dedicating the Immersion Effect to the only game that truly lives up this weekend.

We all know what happened last season. Tennessee was coming off a 5-6, non-bowl, 365 day meltdown season. California was also coming off a disappointing, albeit, winning season. However, Cal had a Heisman candidate at running back, along with 999 yard rusher Justin Forsett, three good wideouts, and finally a defense to go along with the offense. Cal was ranked #9 in the AP poll, with Tennessee at #23.

Then Cal crapped their pants in Neyland Stadium. After Cal forgot how to pass protect, tackle, and focus, Tennessee was up 35-0 midway through the 3rd quarter. Now Cal wants redemption, in their home stadium/domicile. Cal and Tennessee are both ranked in the teens, and the winner of this contest will have momentum and the biggest win of the season to hang their helmets on.

Now that I've built up the game horribly, here is what you should be eating and drinking this weekend, and by weekend, I mean starting Friday at 5pm through Sunday 2am.

Drink of the Week
Bear Juice
You'll need:
Crown Royal Canadian Whiskey
Peach Shnapps
Cranberry juice

Get your shaker, load it up with ice, and add 1 oz. of the Whiskey, 1 oz. of the Shnapps, and 1 oz. of the cranberry juice. Put the cap and shake that sum'bitch until your hand cannot be felt anymore. Strain the Bear Juice into an old fashioned glass, or what I would do, is strain it into a lowball glass. Drink drink drink many of these. But drink responsibly.

Recipe of the Week
Sourdough Bread
You'll need:
1 (.25 ounce) package active dry yeast
3 1/2 cups warm water (110 degrees F to 115 degrees F), divided
7 cups all-purpose flour, divided
1/4 cup nonfat dry milk powder
2 tablespoons butter or margarine, melted
2 tablespoons sugar
2 teaspoons salt
Cornmeal

In a 4-qt. non-metallic bowl, dissolve yeast in 2 cups warm water; let stand for 5 minutes. Stir in 2 cups of flour until smooth. Cover loosely with a clean towel. Let stand in a warm place (80 degrees F-90 degrees F) to ferment for 48 hours; stir several times daily. (The mixture will become bubbly and rise, have a "yeasty" sour aroma and a transparent yellow liquid will form on the top.) Stir in milk powder, butter, sugar, salt, remaining water and enough remaining flour to form a soft dough. (Do not knead.) Cover and let rise in a warm place until doubled, about 1-1/2 hours. Turn onto a floured surface; punch dough down. (Do not knead). Divide in half. Shape each into a round loaf. Heavily grease baking sheets and sprinkle with cornmeal. Place dough on prepared pans. Cover and let rise until doubled, about 30 minutes. With a sharp knife, make three diagonal slashes across tops of loaves. Bake at 350 degrees F for 10 minutes. Brush loaves with cold water; bake 35-40 minutes longer or until golden brown.

Joe's Special
You'll need:
6 large eggs
Splash or two of Tabasco or other hot pepper sauce
1 teaspoon salt or more to taste
1/2 teaspoon dried basil or oregano
1/2 teaspoon freshly milled black pepper or more to taste
1 tablespoon olive oil
1 tablespoon unsalted butter
1 medium yellow onion, diced
1/2 pound lean freshly ground beef, preferably chili grind (a bit coarser than hamburger grind)
3/4 to 1 pound fresh spinach, preferably the crinkly savoy variety, trimmed of stems and chopped, or one 10-ounce package frozen chopped spinach, thawed and drained

Crack the eggs into a small bowl and add the Tabasco, salt, basil, and pepper. Whisk just enough to combine; you should still see large bubbles. Set aside.

Warm the oil and butter in a large skillet over medium heat until the butter melts. Add the onion and sauté until soft but not beginning to brown, about 4 minutes. Add the ground beef and continue cooking until uniformly brown, breaking the meat into small pieces as it cooks. Cover with the spinach, place a lid over the mixture, and cook for about 3 minutes, just until the spinach wilts. (If using frozen spinach, cook, covered, for 1 minute, just to take off its raw edge.)

Stir the spinach into the meat, cooking briefly to eliminate excess liquid if the mixture seems watery. Pour the egg mixture over all, stirring with a spatula from the bottom until the eggs begin to set. Remove from the heat and stir a few more times, as the eggs cook through from the residual heat. Serve immediately.

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There were so many possibilities for this week's immersion recipes. If you truly dedicate yourself to immersing yourself into Bay Area foods, you'd want to make a sourdough bread BOWL with clam chowder in it, but I really don't think anybody is going to do that this week.

Joe's Special originated in San Francisco, but you could also make cracked crab, or the Italian dish, cioppino. Hell, you could even make a San Francisco mission style burrito.

I hope that this weekly feature is something college football fans will really get into. Enjoy the immersion, gents.

Money Making Monday

2007-08-27T11:44:00.000-07:00

I'm back from the hell that is oral surgery, finally feeling like myself again, just in time for game week! I'll be traveling to Berkeley on Friday morning to see the Vols take on the Bears, so my weekend blogging this week will NOT be indicative of how other gamedays will go. Anyway, I've added some games to this week's card.

HUGE EDITOR'S EDIT: If you read this, do not play the UNLV line because I said so. I found out that UNLV QB Rocky Hinds could be out for the season, and it happened over a week ago. I ALWAYS do my research, except this time.

UNLV (-6') @ Utah State

UNLV was better than their 2-10 record last year, and they return 14 starters, including Rocky Hinds, who was good enough to be recruited and committed to USC. Steele has UNLV as a 14 point favorite, so that's a 7 1/2 point margin. Utah State looks to be one of the worst 10 teams in the nation, and they WERE as bad as their 1-11 record indicates. There is 1 worry here, though, and that's the fact that Utah State beat UNLV in Aggieland in 2005. Are the teams the same? Not even close, but it's something to remember.

Central Florida @ North Carolina State (-7')

I love the movement here. Started around NC State -9', but has moved my way. The Pack will be one of the more improved teams in the ACC, and will fight for bowl eligibility. NC State was on the absolute worst side of variance I've ever seen. -5 CGVR, -11 TO, and were actually ranked 7th in CAPP for me at 100.7. All this means a turnaround for the Wolfpack. Plus, I'm a huge fan of Coach O'Brian. UCF had a good season in 2005, but were awful in 2006. UCF lost by 45 at home to Pittsburgh last year, and I think this NC State team is better than that. Steele has NC State as a 14 point favorite, as well.

San Jose State @ Arizona State (-14')

Another line that moved my way, which can sometimes worry you. You hate to see that, but you love it. This is more of a gut play, as Steele has ASU favored by 17'. Still, I think the Sun Devils have way too many weapons on offense for the Spartans to have a chance. Their defense allowed 4.1 ypc last year, as well as a 61.5% completion percentage. I'm sure Rudy Carpenter+Dennis Erickson are licking their chops at that. Yes, San Jose State have good players at QB and RB, but Arizona State, while lacking in defense, should be able to hold SJSU to 24 or less. ASU, in my mind, is a lock to score 40+ in opening week. ASU is somewhere around 3rd or 4th place in the deep Pac 10. I might add the over to this, too. We'll see.

I'm sure I'll add more as we get closer to Saturday, and I'll keep the post updated, so check back.

An Apology

2007-08-24T11:39:00.001-07:00

Sorry to those that have visited the site this week to see no updates. I had oral surgery last Friday, and have not felt well enough to update this blog. I apologize for that. Next week is game week, so on Monday, I'll be back in full force. Thanks for coming back!

Deep Thoughts with Lou Holtz: Exciting Games Edition

2007-08-16T11:05:00.000-07:00

We are sho closhe I can tashte it! We are a little over two weeksh away from the besht day in the world. Teamsh will put the talking behind them and lay it all out on the field. Pregame shpeechesh will be pushshed ashide and the playersh will worry about beating the other man hat on hat. I can't wait!

There are cshertainly tonsh of gamesh that I'm looking forward to.

-Tennesshee at California ish going to be absholutely intenshe. Lasht sheashon, Tennesshee shshmacked the Bearsh around in Neyland Shtadium. But now, the Bearsh want revensh. Nate Longshshore hash three great wide recsheivers to passh to, but can the offenshive line give him time? Will the crowd noishe in Memorial Shtadium rattle the young Volsh? Can the Volsh get more than 114 yardsh on the ground?

-Virginia Tech at LSHSHSHU shshould be a game for the agesh. Even before the shshootings in Blackshburg, thish game was shircled on my calendar. LSHSHSHU will be great at every poshishion excshept quarterback. But Matt Flynn ish no shtranger to big time gamesh. He helped the Tigersh demolishsh the Miami Hurricanesh after the 2004 sheashon. The Hokiesh have an incredible defencshe and are about eleven deep at defenshive back. I predict thish game to be a low shcoring affair.

-Can Clemshon shtart the sheashon off right? Florida Shtate will travel to Death Valley to shshow off their new offencshe with Jimbo Fishshcer. Can Drew Weatherford or Xshavier Lee handle the presshure in a hoshtile environment? CJ Shpiller and Jamesh Davish are shtuds in the backfield, but the Sheminolesh are alwaysh good on defenshce every year. Plush, I love watching the Bowden Bowl every sheashon.

-Miami traveling to Norman is shomething from the eightiesh and ninetiesh, sho thish is like a blasht from the pasht. Randy Shshannon wantsh to shshow the country that the Canesh are back, but playing the Shoonersh in Oklahoma is a tough proposhishion. Sham Bradford will probably be the quarterback for the Shoonersh, but all he needsh to do ish hand the ball to Allen Patrick or Demarco Murray and the Soonersh shshould be okay. But the Canesh will have another top notch run shtopping defenshce thish year. Could be a game of the year!

Thosesh are the gamesh in the firsht two weeksh that I am really excshited about. Who do you think will win?

Money Making Monday

2007-08-13T11:07:00.000-07:00

Alright, last week I gave you 3 bets that I made after the initial lines came out. After more homework since then, I've added one game to the list, and many many more leans.

Mississippi @ Memphis (+3)

I love this game for so many reasons. First, this is close to a rivalry game, and it seems to mean more to Memphis than it does Mississippi. Memphis will probably be the most improved team in CUSA this season, and a lot of their misfortunes in 2006 can be traced to trying new things on defense. The Tigers' rush defense should be solid, and don't expect a walk-on at Ole Miss to light anybody up in his first game. I actually think Memphis will win outright, but I'm not a big fan of money lines.

That's all I've added, but I'll give you some leans that could come to fruition over the next week.

LSU (-17) @ Mississippi State
Army @ Akron (-5')
Central Florida @ NC State (-10)
Purdue @ Toledo (+7)
San Jose State @ Arizona State (-15)

I haven't added those yet, thus, "leans." I'll have write-ups if I do. MAKE MONEY MONEY MAKE MONEY MONEY MONAAAAAY!

Deep Thoughts with Lou Holtz: Freshmen Edition

2007-08-09T07:20:00.001-07:00

Welcome back to thish week's edishion of my deep thoughtsh! I had a blasht doing thish bloggy thingy lasht week, sho I couldn't wait to do another thish time. The world wide websh are amazshing. Today I want to talk about true freshshmen who are making noishe around collesh football.

-Eric Berry at Tennesshee is playing more like a shenior than a freshshman. Defenshive backsh coach Larry Shlade shaysh that Eric Berry ish better than anybody he'sh coached ash a freshshman. In Tueshday'sh shcrimmash, Berry picked off a passh and almosht took it back for a touchdown! With Tennesshee's shaky shecondary shituashion, I think Berry will shtart in Berkeley. Talk about a leprechaun with fool'sh gold!

-True freshshman Arrelioush Benn looksh to shtep into the number one recsheiver role at Illinois. Lasht sheashon Illinois'sh leading recsheiver had only 400 yardsh. For Juicesh Williamsh to shine, Benn needsh to live up to hish billing. Benn had a great shpring and all indicatorsh point to a breakout sheashon in Chshshshampaigne.

-Another freshshman who I am intereshting in sheeing thish fall is Clemshon quarterback Willy Korn. He washn't at Clemshon when I wash at Shouth Carolina, or Notre Dame, but he could get shome repsh thish fall. He wash expected to beat out Cullen Harper, but didn't passh him in the shpring. Maybe he can during camp, becaushe Clemshon needsh a passher to help CJ Shpiller and Jamesh Davish.

-Lashtly, Noel Devine at Wesht Virginia should make that team ash good ash a kite in the tropic breezsh. If Shteve Shlaton getsh injured again, they can jusht pushsh Noel Devine into the shtarting lineup and they shtill have a good one two punch with Pat White. The Mountaineersh have done an excshellent job of recruiting running backsh that will outrun their opponentsh on every down.

Sho thoshe are jusht shome of the freshshmen I can't wait to shee thish Augusht. I'll be back next week with another posht about my thoughtsh in my head. Thanksh!

Money Making Monday: Wednesday Edition

2007-08-08T11:44:00.000-07:00

I meant to post this on Monday as the first in a weekly series throughout the season. But I forgot, and I was busy. Anyway, the series will highlight the weekly bets I have made, and possibly some thoughts on some leans I have. I think I will also do a Wednesday update every week, as I add bets as lines move. I think I have to give some sort of disclaimer that this is for entertainment purposes only. If you follow my bets, and I/we lose, don't blame me. It's your "money" (wink wink), so your responsibility.

These 3 weeks leading up to September might be light, but I do have the luxury of telling you about Team Total Win bets I've made. So, for this Money Making Monday, Wednesday Edition, here are the 3 bets I've placed.

Tennessee +5' @ California

I plan on betting every Tennessee game this season, more for fun than money making. This line is excellent, though. You have to expect this to move against Tennessee, too, so get on it while it lasts. If and when this crosses the +4 watermark, I'd lay off it. Not because I think Tennessee will lose, but +4 is a beautiful number in any game. I think Tennessee wins outright, so if you have that same confidence, you could play Tennessee until it became a PK (which won't happen). Tennessee is only worse than Cal on paper at 2 places: WR and special teams. This Tennessee squad has played in the Swamp, Death Valley, and Between the Hedges in the last 2 seasons, so the noise factor will be nil in Berkeley. The cross country travel will have an effect, but the game is 5pm local time, thank goodness.

Arizona State O 7.5 Wins

Their schedule ensures at least 7 wins, not counting the toss-ups with Oregon State, Cal, and UCLA. To be honest, though, the line feels too good, and when lines feel too good, I usually miss. Take it for what it's worth. Arizona State was the 3rd best statistical team in the Pac 10 last year, according to my CAPP calculations. They finished 6th in the Pac 10. Teams that fall into that category usually have a better season the following fall. I'm all over the Devils and ...

Oregon O 7 Wins

... the Ducks. Oregon was the #1 statistical team in the Pac 10 last year. They have a strong secondary, the best 1-2 RB punch in the conference, and the toughest offseason in their history, via Mike Belotti. Dennis Dixon has to do one thing for Oregon to MURDER this total: take care of the football. He doesn't need to be a superstar, he already has those in Jonathan Stewart and Jaison Williams. Don't throw interceptions, be a field general. That's it! Oregon needs to find a fatty for the middle, as well. They almost always do, sans 2006.

So, I'll be sure to update this on Monday, and it could be awkward until the season starts and we get new lines every week. Anyway, play at your own risk.

Deep Thoughts with Lou Holtz: Fall Camp Edition

2007-08-02T06:30:00.000-07:00

Hello there collesh football fansh! Doug here at the Collesh Football Autshority hash ashked me to type a weekly collesh football editorial for hish blog. I will ashk the queshtionsh that I am thinking about. I think I will try to do thish every Shurshday, sho check in weekly! Up firsht thish sheashon ish fall campsh around the countshry.

-How in the world will the Florida Gatorsh replashce all thoshe defenshive shtartersh? They losesh 9 guysh back there, which ish like replasching the tail on an ornery donkey. If the Gatorsh can get conshishtent play from a new corner and a new linebacker, they could really play role in the Shoutheashtern Conferencshe. Watchsh out for new shignal caller Cameron Newton, who could do what Tim Tebow did lasht year. He'sh a great talent and needsh to shee the field.

-Will Shouthern Cal shtumble before Deshember? Lasht sheashon with a new quarterback, they fell to Oregon Shtate and UCLA, but with a young team. Thish sheashon they have all of that experiencshe, sho I'd be shurprished to shee them loshe a game. That defenshe will be very good, but maybe not ash good ash Notre Dame'sh or Shouth Carolina'sh.

-Can Rutgersh shtay with the Louisvillesh and Wesht Virginiash of the Big Easht? Mike Teel had a rough sheashon lasht year, but Greg Shchiano told me pershonally that Mike is ready. They have a tougher shchedule than lasht year, but we had tough shchedulesh at Notre Dame, sho the Shcarlet Knightsh should shtill challenge!

-Thish sheashon is an important one for Dennish Franchshione at Texash A&M. He'sh in a high voltash shituashion, where he could end up like a 9 iron in a brothel. I think he needsh to win 9 gamesh to keep hish job after thish sheashon. He hash the quarterback in Shtephen McGee, the backsh, the defencshe, etshetera. The problem ish that he hash Oklahoma and Texash in hish divishion, and they are good football teamsh.

That'sh what I'm thinking thish week. Check in next week for more of my thoughtsh.

Q&A with Roll Bama Roll

2007-07-27T11:10:00.000-07:00

I will be cross-posting this entry with my other blog, The Power T. I had a recent Q&A with Rico (Qs 1-6) and Todd (Q 7) from Roll Bama Roll, a great Alabama blog from guys who I would never ever consider Bammers. So, that being said, here are their opinions on the questions I asked them:

1. The preseason prognostication for Alabama is all over the board, with Phil Steele being the most optimistic: 2nd in the SEC West. I agree with him in saying the LSU-Alabama winner will win the division. What are the expectations from the Alabama fan base? Do those expectations differ from the consensus of Alabama bloggers?

It's hard to get a read on the consensus of the Alabama fanbase. Many believe Alabama's fans to be incredibly unreasonable and have expectations that are too high too soon. However, there is also a sizeable portion of the fanbase that knows Nick Saban does not walk on water and that he can't merely appear on the sidelines and have everything fixed and perfected in his first season in Tuscaloosa. My personal take (and I've seen this echoed by many others) is that an 8-4 regular season is about what people are expecting this year. Anything less would be a bit of a disappointment, though it is certainly possible. I see Alabama as having two games they should unquestionably win (Western Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe), four that they should win (Houston, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt) and then there are six that could easily go either way (Arkansas, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Auburn.) While Alabama will unquestionably be the underdog in most (if not all) of those six, they are certainly winnable. If we pick up two of those six, I think that's a realistic expectation for his first season. His unquestionably a better coach and game manager than Mike Shula so I think 8-4 is quite a realistic outlook.

2. What lesser known players are poised to have breakout seasons in 2007? Why?

These kinds of questions are always difficult because it is hard to know how players with little or no game experience will turn out. I think a few young players could step up and shine including Roy Upchurch, Terry Grant and Javier Arenas. They've all show potential in the limited time they've gotten or in scrimmages and they could certainly give us more options on an offense that didn't have a lot of options. There are others, but I don't pretend to be Phil Steele, who I think actually can see into the future.

3. I believe John Parker Wilson has the tools and the weapons around him to challenge for 1st Team All-SEC. What are your thoughts on Wilson and your expectations?

He produced fairly good numbers last year for a sophomore QB that had to run for his life nearly every time the ball was snapped. Assuming he gets better line protection this year I imagine we could really see him turn into a fine QB. One thing he does need to do better is protect the ball. There were times last year where he threw it up for grabs when he should've taken a sack and other times he should've taken a sack and protected the ball but coughed up fumbles trying to produce a miracle. Making smarter decisions in those circumstances comes with experience and he has a full season under his belt so hopefully we'll see improvement in that area. Like I said though, with better line protection and better ball protection I think he can be a real threat given that he has two great targets in DJ Hall and Keith Brown.

4. What kind of environments do you expect for home games against LSU and Tennessee?

I imagine both of those games are going to be completely insane. Tennessee has always been a game that has fired up the crowds at Bryant-Denny, but I imagine given the hope that's in the air with Nick Saban on the sidelines that the passion should be increased many times over. LSU is also a team that people have never had trouble getting fired up for, but given the way Les Miles has been shooting his mouth off I imagine things will be crazy unless they take us out of the game early. I'm just happy I have tickets for both.

5. Are you personally worried about Nick Saban's trend of leaving jobs are 4 years, or less?

Yes and no. Yes due to the fact that it is a trend that can't be ignored and for the fact that he could quit tomorrow and we'd still have to pay him for the full contract. The Alabama Athletic Department definitely got the short end of the stick in the deal. I say no though because Saban's very existence (combined with his handsome salary) has seemed to rub the entire college football world the wrong way. He certainly isn't going back to the NFL and not many other schools could pay him more, much less actually would pay him more. Even if he doesn't win a national championship here and splits in four years, if he wins an SEC Championship or two and leaves us stacked with recruits like he did LSU, I'd be okay with that I think.

6. If Alabama could only win 1 game, and 1 game only, in 2007, who would you like it to be against? Why?

Auburn without a doubt. Losing five in a row to them has been miserable and putting an end to their streak would be both a joy and a relief. I obviously don't fancy losing to LSU or Tennessee, but I could handle those better this year than I could losing to Auburn again. In 2005, I would have answered this question with Tennessee, but now it is all Auburn.

7. What kind of changes will the Tide see on defense in the transition to Kevin Steele in terms of both alignment and theory?

I'm not sure calling this season "a transition to Kevin Steele" is completely accurate. Alabama will be running Saban's system, and Steele was brought in because of his exemplary work with the Florida State linebackers and because Saban's system relies heavily on them. That being said, Steele's hire is a huge boost for both Saban's system and the guys already on the team. The FSU linebackers over the last few years were the heart and soul of that terrific defense, and they played like they would rather tackle than breathe. It's this kind of coaching ability that makes him ideal for a system so dependent on the linebackers. With only three down linemen, it's the role of the "jack" linebacker to both act as a rush end and play in space like a traditional LB. Guys like Keith Saunders and Zeke Knight are perfect for this, since both are physical enough to rush the passer but neither really has the size to play on the line, and both are also fast/athletic enough to play both the run and the pass out in space. I suppose the easiest way to answer your question is to say that Alabama will shift to a 3-4 alignment instead of the typical 4-3, and will be more complex than the simplistic "do one thing and do it better than anyone else" philosophy we saw from Joe Kines the past few seasons. That's not to take away from Kines, of course, considering he produced two of the best defenses in the country and even had a green unit with no depth up front ranked in the top 25 last year in total defense, but his strategies were so dependent on sound, fundamental football that it took players the caliber of DeMeco Ryans, Roman Harper, et al to be dominant in it. Given one more season, he would have certainly had these guys whipped into shape and schooled in the proper techniques to be dominant again but, alas, it was not to be. Enter Saban and Steele, two defensive masterminds who love a good blitz just as much, and probably more, than any other defensive coach in the country. Saban inherits an Alabama team that is very thin in the front seven (we have a converted center starting at NT), but deep, talented, and fast in the secondary. He's said several times that a lot of what we'll see this year will be done out of a nickel package to take advantage of the talent among the DBs. This isn't too far removed from the 3-4 alignment he likes, but using a nickelback as a fourth linebacker will probably pose some problems against the run. I'm not overly familiar with his time at Miami, but what I know from watching the Saban defenses at LSU is that they are both fast and disciplined, and I expect the Alabama defense to be no different. I also expect to see some more complex blitzes from the new schemes. Kines rarely disguised his blitzes but he had coached his players so well that opposing offenses couldn't stop them. With Saban, I imagine we'll see a lot more zone blitzing, and probably far more man coverage than we were used to last season.

I believe 8-4 is a conservative estimate for this Tide squad. As I've stated plenty of times, I fully expect the winner of the LSU-Alabama tilt to win that division. I think the talent on this team would have gone 8-4 under Mike Shula in 2007, and Saban+SuperFriends are worth a win or two. Big thanks to Rico and Todd - visit their site, NOW!

The Jumbled 2nd Tier of the Pac 10

2007-07-26T07:00:00.000-07:00

If you've picked up a single preseason preview magazine, it probably has USC as the #1 team in America. Why shouldn't they be? They return a senior QB, return 10 players from the best defense in the conference, with possibly 4 1st round picks on that side of the ball alone. They have a slew of running backs who are all capable of averaging at least 4 yards per carry. Oh, and they have the best coach in the country. USC's status as the top dog in the Pac 10 is not going to be challenged in 2007, if we're all correct in our assessments.

The really exciting thing about the Pac 10 in 2007 is going to be the absolute clusterdryhump from #2 through #6. California, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, and Oregon State will all jockey to finish as the #1 Loser so they can make the Rose Bowl. A lot of pundits peg Cal for that spot, but I'll get into why I disagree later (similar reasons to what the Genius has said). If you put those 5 teams into any order in the standings, I could understand why you would. Hell, you could convince me that Arizona's new offensive scheme could add them into the equation. I won't though, because Tuitama needs to show consistency while healthy.

Why isn't Cal the clear #2? Why don't I believe UCLA will challenge? Why am I falling in love with the Ducks and the Devils? Read on to find out. Beware, though, as I'm using a lot of statistical analysis up front, with some eyeball analysis at the badunkadunk. Before the table, I'd like to give you a key, if you will, of what the abbreviations stand for, and what kind of correlation they have to results the next season.

CGVR: Close Game Variance Ratio - Started by Phil Steele, and adjusted slightly by me, and given a name. Steele has done extensive research on close game outcomes. When teams are either very lucky or very unlucky, they have a good chance of different fortunes the next season. A close game, with my adjustment, is any final score within 8 points either direction. A team with a +4 in CGVR means they had 4 net close game victories. You can find the probabilities for this metric here. Basically, just remember +2 or more means a team's record will not improve, and -2 or more means it will improve the next season.

DDH: Draft Day Hangover - Straight from Phil Steele. His tool applies points to each round of the draft for which a player was taken. A 1st round pick is worth 7 points, a 2nd rounder is 5, 3rd round is 4, and so on. Anything higher than 12, per Steele, means a record decrease the next season.

RS: Returning Starters (not K/P) - From everyone and everywhere. 11,12, and 13 RS is neutral. Anything more is a good thing, any less could be a downward slide.

TO: Turnovers - Phil Steele has found a correlation with next season success or failure based on turnovers. If your team was +8 or more last season, you could expect that luck to even out and have a worse record the next season. The inverse is true of -8 or worse.

CAPP: Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage - My stat that bases ranking of a conference by the yardage stats in conference play in comparison to strength of opposition. The way to apply it is like Steele does with his ypg theory. If a team, say, Oregon, finishes 5th in the Pac 10, but was statistically 1st in the conference, you can expect them to improve their record the next season.

OVERALL: This is where I combine the 5 metrics from above, and see if the team is trending up or down. The more arrows the better.

Team	CGVR	DDH	RS	TO	CAPP
Cal	E	16	13	+6	4th
Oregon St	+4	6	16	+8	5th
UCLA	E	2	20	+4	7th
Oregon	+1	4	14	-10	1st
Arizona St	E	6	14	-1	3rd

That took me a long time to put together, so you better love it. From the table alone, it looks like Cal and Oregon State are going to take a step back, while the lower 3 all will move up. However, there has to be more to the story, right? For sure. The schedules of the 5 teams, as well as talent have to come into play. Let's take a took at it.

The Bears have the most raw talent of the 5 teams jockeying for position to place. With the WR corps of Jackson, Hawkins, and Jordan, combined with a competent quarterback, they can beat anybody on any given day. Their defense is a huge concern, especially up front. They have a good coach in Jeff Tedford, who could be better than Mike Belotti and Dennis Erickson right now, but he doesn't have the accomplishments to prove it. The biggest concern for them finishing #2 is that of the 4 games against their peers on the 2nd tier, only 1 is at home. Cal has been a damn good team in Berkeley, so it definitely matters for them. They get the Beavers in Memorial, but the other 3 are on the road and all of them can beat Cal.

Not only did Oregon State come out with 4 net close victories, they also were on the positive side of variance for turnovers. Those 2 are the biggest trends in the table, in my opinion. They also weren't as good as 3rd statistically. On the other side of things, they return their starting running back and all of their sack monsters. Like Cal, they only get 1 home game against the 4 possible bridesmaids. I think the Beavers suffer the greatest fall in the Pac 10.

I find the Bruins to be the toughest to project in this group. They have an insane amount of returning starts, didn't lose much to the draft, and weren't on either side of variance at all. They weren't statistically the 4th best team in the conference. In fact, they were 7th! Stats aren't everything, but they are something. They also have the worst head coach of the 5 Susan Lucci's. Preseason rags are pimping UCLA to be #2 or #3 in the conference, with an outside shot at the title. But Dorrell has been anything but impressive, saved only by a miracle against USC. They do get 3 of the 4 games at home, where the Dorrell Bruins are 20-5.

The team with the most green, up arrows is only getting love from Phil Steele, for the same reasons I'm giving them love. They were on the bad side of variance for turnovers, have returning starters, and were the BEST statistical team in the Pac 10 last year. If I did guarantees, one would be Oregon finishing #2 in the conference this year. But watch out, Dennis Dixon is spending the summer missing splitfingers, which is a summer without football preparation. This alone could screw them out of #2. The biggest reason Oregon underachieved last year was Dixon's ability to put it between the numbers of a receiver ... from the defense. If he comes around, Oregon will walk away with the Mark Martin Award. Oh, and they get 3 of 4 in Eugene, the toughest place to play in the Pac 10.

As you can see in the table above, Arizona State has 3 pretty green arrows, signifying a major move up the ladder in the Pac 10. This is without considering they signed a National Championship head coach. Erickson, while as shady as the earth under a 400 year oak, wins games. He'll take Arizona State to a new level, and it could be sooner than people expect. They had no variance, positive or negative. They return 14 starts, including a very promising offense. If the defense can hold serve, they might take that #2 spot. They split the games with the other 4 Kevin Federlines, 2 in Tempe, 2 on the road.

How will they all end up? Who will be the beneficiary of a Rose Bowl trip, while not truly earning it? You'll find out in my Pac 10 Predictions in a week or two or three. (This truly wasn't a tease, but yeah, watch for it.)

EDIT: Yes, I realize there's a huge gap before the table. I have no idea why, and I'm waiting on help from blogger. If anyone knows why, e-mail me at thepowert at gmail dot com)

The Tim Tebow Myth(?)

2007-07-25T09:26:00.001-07:00

As we roll through July, with visions set upon sleeping through August, the college football hype machine is beginning to rev itself up, ready to flatten the universe like a Zamboni to ice. One of the main topics this offseason has been Super T_T, Tim Tebow. Whether it's Florida fans hoisting him atop their proverbial shoulders and bronzing his helmet for their Hall of Fame, or the lame lame lame lame lame lame ass reincarnation of the Chuck Norris turned Jack Bauer, now Tim Tebow, jokes about invincibility, you've had plenty of Tebowtainment. He's loved in Gainesville, but hated in every college football city in the South. Would you have it any differently, though? Tim Tebow is what college football is all about - a legend on his campus, and despised by his opponents. He's a handsome, promising athlete, but in Knoxville, Baton Rouge, Athens, and so forth, he's a "fagz0r d00d."

Regardless of the social opinions on Tebow, there is a real argument about how well he played in 2006, and how well he will play in 2007. There is no answer to the latter, because nobody knows for sure how well the spread option will work in the SEC on a weekly basis. Basically, we all have to be members of the Waitnsee Tribe.

However, the former discussion of his 2006 accomplishments is what has become heated, and needs to be addressed. Florida fans will point to his amazing passer rating in SEC play, his 5+ yards per carry, and his high school passing records. The opposition will make way too many fullback jokes, which is so 2006, it's basically Borat. So, let's dig into Tebow's 2006 stats.

Passing: 22/33 for 358 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 201.7 rating
Rushing: 89 carries for 469 yards, 5.3 ypc, 8 TD
2 sore years from headset

Those numbers seem pretty good for a true freshman in spot duty. But are they really indicators of how well Tebow will quarterback the Gators through a tough SEC slate? I don't think so, and I'll show you why.

In 8 SEC Games + SECCG: 5/10 for 75 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 59 carries for 317 yards, 5.4 ypc, 4 TD

In 2 Games Against UCF and W. Carolina: 16/21 for 281 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 15 carries for 109 yards, 7.3 ypc, 2 TD

In 8 Games Against Top 40 Defenses: 4/5 for 60 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 50 carries for 191 yards, 3.8 ypc, 5 TD

What do I find interesting from these numbers? First and foremost, the sample sizes are way, way, way (did I say way?) too small to draw any stable conclusions either way. However, I do want to point out a few things.

1. Of Tebow's 33 passes, 63.6% of them were against Central Florida and Western Carolina. 78.5% of his passing yards came in those two games. The statistical basis that Florida's fans point to for Tebow's immediate success is rooted in 2 games against their weakest foes.

2. Tebow ran well in the SEC, but he didn't throw enough to really get a feel for his passing abilities. He completed only 50% of his passes in the SEC, but 80% against good defenses overall. He was 1/5 against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, two of the lesser defenses in the SEC in 2006.

3. Against top 40 defenses, Tebow's ypc dropped by a yard and a half. It makes sense, really, as most runners have lesser stats against better competition. 3.8 ypc is nothing to hang your hat on, though.

4. Tebow did not attempt a pass against 5 teams: Southern Miss (season opener), Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, and Arkansas. To point out the obvious, there are 4 SEC teams listed there. That's 44% of the SEC games he played.

With those 4 main points, I feel that anybody who says Tebow will be good or bad, has no idea. There simply isn't enough enough data to make that argument statistically. He didn't throw against 4 of the 9 SEC teams he played! Most of his passing stats were accumulated against a D-1 doormat and a D-1AA team. So, the jury is out, and this post gives you no conclusion. Like Memento, you decide what happens.

OU Loses Schollies; or Tulsa Thanks the Lord

2007-07-11T19:34:00.000-07:00

Everyone has already covered the punishment for Oklahoma handed down today by the NCAA. Message board Sooners were outraged, blogging Sooners were thankful. The Associated Press reported that the Sooners will lose two scholarships for two more seasons, through 2010. They also must erase their 8 victories from 2005, their worst season of this decade. Around the Great Plains, wretched football programs rejoice. Now, Baylor, Tulsa, Southern Methodist, and Kansas have a better chance at picking up a 3 star player from the region. WATCH OUT MID MAJORS!

"When reached on his cell phone, Quinn said he did not pay any attention to the infractions committee's ruling on Oklahoma, calling it "dumb" and referring to it with an expletive."

Classy fellow right there. He breaks the rules, gets money for nothing, gets kicked out of school, tarnishes his name and his former school, yet doesn't care and deflects? Is he from Alabama? I keed, I keed. I wonder what Rhett Bomar has to say about all of it now?

Seriously, this decision doesn't effect Oklahoma at all. Everyone will remember that hey were 8-4 in 2005. The scholarships they are losing would have gone to projects, not 5 star stud tailbacks. Bob Stoops will still be able to hang his hat on an amazing record. This does pave the way for an interesting situation for USC and their possible violations. If the allegations are true, then USC could see their 2004 record stripped, and possibly their National Title.

Karl Dorrell Needs ...

2007-07-10T10:42:00.000-07:00

Karl Dorrell hasn't been mentioned much around the country as a coach on the hot seat, but if you talk with a Bruin fan for longer than 3 minutes you'll come to find out that a strong portion of the fan base wants him gone. I was taken aback a little, so I decided I'd look further into the issue. Bruins fans probably already know most, if not all, of what I'm about to outline. Still, they might like some outside reassurance.

In Karl Dorrell's four seasons as head coach of the Bruins, he's amassed a 29-21 record (.580 win %), 19-14 in the Pac 10. He's 1-3 against cross-town rival USC, 1-3 in bowl games, and hasn't won a Pac 10 Championship.

His predecessor, Bob Toledo, was fired after a 7-5 regular season in 2002. His achievements? 49-32 overall (.605 win %), 32-24 in the Pac 10. He was 3-4 against USC, 1-2 in bowls, but missing a bowl 3 years, but won 1 outright Pac 10 Championship, and tied for a Co-Championship.

Toledo was beaten by more than 2 touchdowns 12 times during his stay in Pasadena, or 2 times a season. Dorrell has been beaten by more than 2 touchdowns 9 times during his current tenure, or 2.25 times a season.

Bob Toledo took over a program that was 35-23 over the 5 years prior to his arrival. Karl Dorrell took over a program that was 35-24 the 5 years prior to his arrival.

With just these simple facts, I can see why some UCLA fans think Dorrell should be canned like Oscar the Grouch. So, what does Karl Dorrell need to keep the fanny from being warm?

From afar, I'd say he needs to beat USC (again) and finish 1st or 2nd in the conference. They have the returning starters (20!), the expectations , and the schedule to finish in the top 2 of the Pac 10.

Maybe Bruins Nation will chime in on what they need Dorrell to do to win them over.

Denver is a Good City

2007-07-09T09:31:00.000-07:00

I'm back from Denver, back into the daily grind of advertising sales from 8-5 daily, and back to waiting for 50-some-odd days until our first college football Saturday. The waiting is killing me, but at this point, it feels better than say - 20 days. At 20 days, it's so close you can taste it, but you still have to wait 3 weeks.

Anyway, slow news days right now, so I should be able to post the Big East APP Breakdown and make some headway on the Swing Players series. But not right now, real work is in the way. Of course, I'm wasting all this precious time by catching up on the hundreds of blogs I read, as well as typing this entry.

Where to start ...

Smart Football has a great, lengthy entry on the death of the Run and Shoot offense ... The Wizard of Odds started an interesting series showcasing different programs' season posters ... SMQ has intertubes problems, so my favorite blog is down for now ... Dawg Sports and Roll Bama Roll have posted (or begun posting) their list for their teams' respective toughest games ... EDSBS (as everyone knows already) pulled the wool over someone, and that someone is actually two idiotic guys.

Really slow time right now, but the onslaught will be coming from all of us bloggers across the country very soon. I can feel it!

Programming Note

2007-07-03T11:39:00.000-07:00

I just wanted to inform my loyal reader that I will be on vacation starting in ohhhhhhhh 30 minutes through Sunday. I don't post daily as of right now, so I doubt you'll miss me much. However, I didn't want to leave you all with a "House Rock Built" type mystery, so there you go. Upon my return, we'll speed things up and become a daily blog for you to waste your time.

Denver, here I come.

NCAA Reconsidering Text Ban

2007-07-02T10:47:00.000-07:00

The Associated Press is reporting that "the NCAA will reconsider three rules, including one that bans coaches from sending text messages to recruits, at its Aug. 9 board of directors meeting."

Honestly, I have very little to say about the actual story, but I wanted an excuse to create some more fake "real texts" from coaches to players. I see it as a neverending mana pool of hilarity. Then again, I'm easily amused, and you readers out there might find it less than funny. Regardless, here are some I've been lucky enough to see:

"u can come join us n b part of teh angelz at USC n maybe c my buddy will ferel ... we can get u a house or cashmoniez or wutever .... hit me up d00d"

">:O y u throwin da ball their? thats teh kind a coachin i give ya yup teh ol ball coach tells ya where 2 throw it jus sling it round"

"yarrrrrrr me matey dun u want 2 livez with out scurviez!?11?!~ we pillagez teh villagez which is a cymbal 4 winning ballgamez~!!@ we hunt 4 hidden treazures which r touchdwons!"

"2 wurds $$$$$$$$$$"

"aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"

Those are just some of the classics I've happen to come across, you know, during my years of being recruited by every program anywhere. I hope they reinstate text messages as a means of communication. As we've all seen with the Houston Nutt Chronicles, we could possibly see the REAL texts that REAL coaches send. I think it'd be amazingly hilarious to see what kind of texting approaches these coaches take. Is Jim Tressel a phonetic guy, a punctuation guy? WHO KNOWS?! I'd like to, though.

APP Breakdown: The ACC

2007-07-01T14:50:00.000-07:00

I've been taking awhile to post all of these series (APP and Swing Players), but I don't really disappoint myself. It's like a practice of "hurry up and wait." I can get all of these done quickly, and we'll still be in July. Still weeks and weeks away from the promised land of beer, chips and dips, hard liquor, cheering, booing, drinking, drinking, drinking, sleeping, typing, and all because of this little sport we love.

Anywho, the ACC was ridiculed in 2006 for being an awful, awful conference. I think it was a little better than the pundits thought, but really, the argument was hard, so I stopped. The conference was deep, it seemed. Eight teams made a bowl, but only one to the BCS: an 11 win Wake Forest team that not only had a coach with a rabbit's foot in his pocket, but must have been owed a favor by the Man Upstairs.

I knew as soon as 2006 hit 2007 that in 5 months, I'd be talking about how Wake Forest was charmed and would return to the mean in 2007. I knew I'd talk about how Florida State and Miami were statistically pretty good, but their achievements were poor. I found the ACC APP Breakdown to be the most interesting, but I can't tell you why. Maybe you can figure it out. Oh, and for those just joining me in progress, here is the original explanation for the APP, as well as the breakdowns for the SEC, Pac 10, Big 10, and Big 12.

Here is the ACC's Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Clemson 125.3
2. Boston College 111.7
3. Georgia Tech 108.4
4. Maryland 103.7
5. NC State 102.3
6. Florida State 98.6
7. Duke 98.3
8. Virginia Tech 94.2
9. Wake Forest 93.8
10. North Carolina 90.8
11. Miami 87.3
12. Virginia 85.4

It seems like the ACC was a defensive-heavy conference. Only 5 teams scored above average, and the entire conference was pretty jumbled in regards to the TOAPP scores. Virginia in last with an 85.4 is pretty decent for a last place score. Florida State, who fired Jeff Bowden and hired Jimbo Fisher, wasn't terrible - barely below average. Could it be that there is more to the problem than the offense? Miami's offense has fallen so far since the early part of this decade. If they can get that offense up to average, they'd be in the driver's seat.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

No surprise here. CJ Spiller and James Davis combined for over 2,000 yards last season, all with a mediocre QB in the backfield with them. They return for 2007, along with 3 OL starters, so they could produce just as well (160.9 ROAPP). Florida State and Miami ranked 11th and 10th, respectively, in ROAPP, better than only Duke. This is where their offenses struggled. Georgia Tech finished 2nd, pointing to the assumption that Tashard Choice saved the team from Reggie Ball.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

What else would you expect? Duke is the worst BCS conference program. I will say that Re'quan Boyette might be a tiny light at the end of the tunnel, as he averaged 4.5 yards per carry. At Clemson, Arkansas, and other successful rushing attacks, 4.5 ypc might be awful, but at Duke, it's a miracle. Boyette only had 87 carries, so he didn't have much to do with the offense. I'd like to see the Blue Devils give him some more carries in 2007, he might help them win A game.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

Admittedly, I was on the 2007 Matt Ryan for Heisman bandwagon as soon as the 2006 season ended. However, his 3:2 TD:INT ratio is a little concerning, as well as his 6.89 yards per attempt. He had a better 2005 than 2006, so I'm not sure why I'm so high on him. BC's receivers contain 4 guys who can contribute, but none are stars. I think the Eagles will put up better passing numbers than 2006, but I have concern about new starters on the offensive line.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

They scored an 81.7, which isn't all that terrible. It's bad, don't get me wrong, but in other conferences, the last place POAPP scores were out of this world bad. The Cavaliers had to break in redshirt James Sewell over the last 7 games, and while his numbers were "meh," he started to show some progress. He had a good game against a great Miami defense. He should improve in 2007, thus improving the entire offense. Oh, and surprisingly, Wake Forest had the 11th rated pass offense. I knew they were below average, but this low?

On the other side of the ball, you might find some surprises. Here is Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Virginia Tech 137.8
2. Clemson 122.0
3. Miami 118.1
4. Florida State 113.6
5. Virginia 109.7
6. Georgia Tech 99.9
7. NC State 99.0
8. Boston College 98.4
9. North Carolina 91.2
10. Wake Forest 89.6
11. Maryland 81.6
12. Duke 74.3

While there are only 5 teams above average for RDAPP, take a look at teams 6 through 8, all right there around average. Miami and Florida State are still taking care of business on defense. Look at Clemson at #2. How could a team with a good offense and a good defense finish in the middle of the ACC? We'll talk about that later. Notice Wake at #10 - the idea that the defense won them the ACC Title is hogwash, and this is more evidence that Wake will crash back to earth this upcoming season. The same can be said for Maryland, who will either improve their defense or finish in the lower quarter of the conference.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

Miami finished with a 166.4 score, showing they still have the nastiness on defense. Overall, 8 teams (!!!) were above the average mark for rush defense. GT, FSU, and VT all scored very well, and BC, Clemson, UVA, NCST, and Wake all came in above 100. The Canes' defense must replace tackle Kareem Brown and tackle Bryan Pata (sorry). Still, McCray returns, as well as highly talented Hendricks and Bailey. All in all, it could be just as difficult to successfully run the ball in the ACC in 2007 as it was in 2006.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Ouch! The only BCS team who did worse in their conference in RDAPP was Purdue in the Big 10. The Terps scored a 68.3, which in the simplest terms, is putrid. They lose their NT and 2 of the top 3 tacklers, who were LBs. They have untested talent in their 2 deep in the defensive line, but I really can't see them improving that much to make a difference. NC State and North Carolina were almost as bad.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

No surprise here. The Hokies always seem to produce at least 1 NFL draft pick from their secondary. But here's why VT could make a run to the national title game: even with the loss of ROV Aaron Rouse, VT returns the best secondary in the ACC. Brandon Flowers was 3rd team All American, Victor Harris was a full time starter, and backup CB Roland Minor started 12 games in 2005. DJ Parker is a returning starter at FS. Their new starter at ROV? SO Dorian Porch, who runs a 4.4, squats 500 pounds, and has a 40 inch vertical. Sounds like the secondary will be fine. Clemson, NC State, and Virginia all scored very well, and all 3 return at least 2 starters in the back.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

Hello again, old friend. We all understand - you don't have the talent or speed to compete with these vertical passing attacks. Maybe JR Jabari Marshall, who was a RB last year, can help with his sub-4.4 speed. I doubt it, though, as the passing games in the ACC will only get better in 2007. We'll root for you, and pray, too.

Now, the big money shot, if you will. It all comes together to see how the teams fared overall. Here is Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Clemson 123.7
2. Virginia Tech 116.0
3. Florida State 106.1
4. Boston College 105.1
5. Georgia Tech 104.2
6. Miami 102.7
7. NC State 100.7
8. Virginia 97.6
9. Maryland 92.7
10. Wake Forest 91.7
11. North Carolina 91.0
12. Duke 86.3

This is why the ACC APP Breakdown was so fun. The ACC standings were the most inaccurate in comparison the stats. Wake Forest, who won the conference, was the 10th best statistical team. The top 4 teams in CAPP didn't play for the title. What does it all mean? Well, without taking any other variables into consideration, you could expect Maryland and Wake Forest to really fall hard in 2007. If you're a betting person, please fade those two clubs over the first 3 or 4 weekends. Miami and Florida State should rebound to their normal areas. NC State could see a rise. But what about Clemson? #1 statistically, middle of the pack finish. Normally I would predict a top finish for them, but I feel that this is more than variance for them. I think Tommy Bowden is an awful coach. Thus, no change. Sometimes a team can play well and lose close games, but Clemson didn't. They were -1 in CGVR for the regular season (close games), and that was the game against South Carolina. I think Bowden is 100% to blame.

I feel like if I have any ACC readers, they should give some feedback.

Ears Loses Appendix; Draws Ire of Internal Organs

2007-06-27T16:34:00.000-07:00

The Associated Press is reporting that "Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville underwent a successful outpatient appendectomy Wednesday in Florida."

Good for you, Ears! I wish coaches could still text recruits. I can see it now.

OMG my tummy dont hurt no more lolz stichs r itchy

Much like Brandon Cox's presence at Auburn, nobody really knows what the appendix does. BUH-DUM DUM!

I can't help but imagine what the conversation was like inside the bowels of Tuberville's innards.

Large Intestine: "Appendix, you aren't trying to uhhhh ... leave the organs are you?"

Appendix: "No way, I love it in here."

Small Intestine: "Thank goodness, we want you around forever. You may not do anything, but we like you. You look important."

Pancreas: "WHAT ARE YOU ALL TALKING ABOUT OVER THERE?"

Kidneas: (in unison) "LOUD NOISES!"

Appendix: "Listen, the only way I'm leaving is in a pine box."

And there he went. He left via some shiny, metal tool that doctors use, not in a pine box. The appendix is a traitor, and shall be shunned and booed every time he returns to the midsection area.

BlogPoll Roundtable via Fire Mark May

2007-06-25T16:32:00.000-07:00

The BlogPoll roundtables for the 2007 season have begun, and while I'm neither a BlogPoller, nor prompt with my responses, I shall enter the discussion. Why? Because I'm lobbying to become a member of the BlogPoll, and I have a budget similar to the Barack Obama Presidential Campaign. So, expect some sort of video on the interwebs of a random Hottie McHots dancing to a song about me. Annnnnnnnnnnnnyway, on to the tables of the round variety.

Give the more zealous portion of your fanbase a religion. What's this cult following? Feel free to give the splitters a derogatory nickname.

These already exist for Tennessee. In this corner, we have those who defend, love, and hand-bathe Phillip Fulmer, who are coined the Fulmerites. Fulmerites pray to Buddha-like statues, but carved and bronzed to bare a resemblance to their deity, Coach Fulmer. The statue is so intricate, the original sculptor actually took the time to add in doughnut crumb carvings and paint on the hands to signify sticky rib sauce. It's pretty wild. Of course, the NCAA jumped all over the merchandising, and now you can own your very own Buddha Fulmer for only $24.95 plus shipping and handling. The daily mantras of Fulmerites include, but are not limited to, mentions of the 1998 National Title, the best winning percentage of coaches with 10 years of experience plus a pant size higher than 40 while living in Maryville, and lastly, the rehiring of once chastised David Cutcliffe.

So, in the other corner, obviously the corner opposite of the Fulmerites, stand those who wish for nothing more than to see Phillip Fulmer ousted the same way former head coach Johnny Majors supposedly was - with a knife in the back. They'd then like to ask Coach Fulmer, "If you were a rack of ribs, would you eat yourself?" The answer is obvious. As I was saying, these people are named NegaVols (BOO, HISS, THROW SOME CABBAGE!). Catchy title, eh? In my experience, NegaVols can become members of this group only by being named one by Fulmerites. The qualifications are a bit cloudy, but I'm pretty sure once you become a NegaVol, you are no longer a "true fan." It seems to go hand in hand once you get the letter of the beast.

So, to sum up: Fulmerites hate NegaVols. NegaVols are NegaVols without choice. Phillip Fulmer loves food. Who doesn't. Moving on.

Your biggest rival is in town, and College Gameday is coming....to your citaaaaaaay... Create a blatant corporate sellout promotion to appeal to the mass unwashed.

This one is pretty obvious and ties in with the religious sects above. See, it starts out like any ol' t-shirt, but better. Wait, no, now stay with me. It's an orange Tennessee t-shirt, but on the shoulder areas are some figurines. On the left shoulder, a figurine of Phillip Fulmer in a white gown and a halo over his head, which is symbolic of your inner Fulmerite. On the right shoulder, a Johnny Majors figurine dressed in red spandex with a pitchfork and pointy tail - your inner NegaVol. You may press the bellies of each figurine whenever you'd like, and it will recite a mantra of the specific sect. For instance, when Tennessee runs on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down, you hit that Johnny Majors in Red figurine, and you'll hear, "3 yards and a cloud of dust same old same old FIRE FULMER!" But when Tennessee travels on the road and wins a game as an 8 point underdog, you hit the White Fulmer to hear "We play better as underdogs!" It'd sell out in a heartbeat.

Add one local delicacy to your stadium's concessions. Post-tax pricing is optional.

Knoxville isn't really known for any certain delicacy, and Petro's is already served at Tennessee home games. Actually, I know what I'd add. Ruby Tuesday is based out of East Tennessee, so I'd add a Ruby's right there in Neyland stadium. I'd make sure to include the overpriced appetizers, the boring memorabilia, and horrible service.

With an unlimited AD budget, add or subtract one thing to your school's gameday experience that has nothing to do with football.

More dunk tanks. I've never witnessed someone NOT having a good time when someone popular is in the dunk tank. Hell, put some coaches up there every now and then, charge a mere $1, and you'll make like $105,678 every home game. While most people want more cowbell, I want more dunk tanks.

Coin a hilariously unrealistic stereotype that you would like to "make stick" for this upcoming season.
Mark Mangino loses weight for cancer research. Coach Mangino had a touching meeting with a young cancer-stricken fellow who loves the Rock Chalk Jayhawks. Mangino, uplifted beyond his wildest dreams, vows to lose 1 pound for every point his Jayhawks score. If the team averages 20 points per game, that's 240 pounds. Every Saturday morning, College Gameday will dedicate an entire 7 minute segment to the latest weight loss totals. It will be "moving."

Redesign your conference or independent schedule with reckless abandon. Be prepared to include compensation for jilted schools and conferences in your explanation.

For this discussion, I'd like to defer comment to my friend, S3C fanb0yee.

"WTFOMGBBQ~!!! Are confrenz iz da best d00d y wuld we redesingate the bets confrenz int he countree~~??~ all other confrenzez r teh lamest bitches out their the pac 1 (haha u onlee have 1 team) iz girly n wuzzy teh big 10 pluz 1 r slow punkz and teh big 12 is ok~!!! teh acc iz bye far teh wurstest of all teh reel confrenzez o an dun get me strated on th ebig east or mayb th big leazt"

Thank you, I couldn't agree more. (I realize this section was probably supposed to be serious, but I really blew my pistons out too early.)

Following up on your new realignment, blow up the BCS and devise a national playoff system, money grabs and missed exams be damned. Using your new fantasy conferences is optional.

Honestly, I think the a great approach to a playoff would be a 6 team setup. The #1 and #2 ranked teams in the BCS get a bye, because you need some sort of reward for the regular season. BCS #3 versus BCS #6, BCS #4 versus BCS #5. Winners obviously move on to the Final Four and we have a surefire champion. You'd still have two other BCS bowls to reward conference champs who might not be in the top 6 BCS spots. All the lower bowls stay the same.

Elect one public figure to replace NCAA president Myles Brand. Anyone with proper name recognition is eligible.

This is pretty easy. You'd need someone with enthusiasm, intelligence, and the ability to remember where all the schools are located. The man with the best makeup of these 3 aspects is former Democratic CONTENDA Howard Dean. Imagine his attitude in scheduling meetings, disciplinary conferences, etc. "We're going to Blackburg, Columbia, Pasadena, Knoxville, Tuscaloosa, then we're going to Indianapolis to take back the office! BARAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!"

The end.

APP Breakdown: The Big 12

2007-06-23T10:30:00.000-07:00

It's the Bigggggg Tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelve!!! Make sure to properly enunciate that 'e' in Tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeelve, so you can accurately portray Dan Hawkins. The best way to say it is to try and say "eel" (yes, the slithery, slippery, Urban Meyer-looking sea creature) between the 'tw' and 've.' This might be the dumbest couple of sentences anyone has written anywhere - ever. Anyway, we head onto the B12 APP Breakdown. Remember, these stats are based on the 8 conference games of the 12 members, comparing the yardage gained and yardage allowed compared only to the teams they played. In a conference like the Big 12, where not all teams play each other, this stat is a better comparison than by just ranking teams by total yards. A score of 110.3 means that the team performed 10.3% better than average. Make sense?

Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Texas Tech 121.9
2. Oklahoma State 112.0
3. Nebraska 110.7
4. Missouri 107.6
5. Texas 103.8
6. Texas A&M 103.6
7. Kansas 98.2
8. Oklahoma 92.3
9. Baylor 90.7
10. Kansas State 88.6
11. Colorado 88.5
12. Iowa State 82.8

The Red Raiders at #1 should never be a surprise, considering that Allied Forces in World War II hired Mike Leach as an air attack consultant. There really aren't many surprises on this list. However, an interesting note or two about how to succeed int he Big 12: Of the six teams with below average to bad offenses, only 2 of them made a bowl; of the six teams with above average to good offenses, all 6 made a bowl. Maybe having a competent offense is all you need in the Big 12 to make a bowl game.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

Extremely surprising, at least for me. Their 155.4 score is amazing, but I'm even more amazed at the rushing attack depth in the conference: the six teams above a 100 score were WAY above that number - Colorado (126.3), Kansas (113), Nebraska (114.6), Oklahoma (123.9), Texas A&M (146.7), and the aforementioned Okies. I think it's obvious to say that there is a large gap between the rushing have's and the rushing have nots. The Cowboys return Dontrell Savage, Bobby Reid, and Keith Totson, so I expect more of the same from their rushing offense this upcoming season.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa. This score is abysmal. 35.6?!?! Take into account that there are two other rushing offenses in the Big 12 that would have finished last in almost every conference (Texas Tech 46.5 and Iowa State 64.2), if not for Baylor's complete lack of ability. The Bears could throw, for damn sure, but they couldn't muster ANYTHING. They actually lose their top rusher, and return a guy who averaged 3.9 yards per rush. Please do worse than 35.6, I'll be so happy.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

"Yeah, real shocking, Doug. Thanks for the mind numbing truth." I hear you all the way over here. Yes, Tech throws it, we all know. Too bad they don't run the ball worth a damn. Missouri and Baylor finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively. I was surprised that Missouri was so good at passing the ball, but so bad at running it. With a better mix in 2007, their offense could get scary. Texas and Nebraska fared well with a 108.3, but Colt McCoy didn't light the world on fire in conference, contrary to popular belief.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

The Buffs really only had 1 terrible aspect of play in 2006, and here it is. Their rush offense was good, rush defense was decent, and their pass defense was above average. However, the downfall of this team was the poor pass play in conference. I truly believe that if they can even get decent output from the QBs and WRs, they could challenge for 2nd in the conference. Wait wait wait, I know finishing 2nd in the B12 North isn't anything worthwhile, but when you're 2-10, it might be. Oklahoma was 2nd to last in POAPP, which might not have been surprising, but it is definitely telling. As admirable as Paul Thompson's play was, they still stunk passing the ball in conference. Give Sam Bradford all spring, all summer, and the first 2 weeks of fall, and on that note alone, I think Oklahoma could jump from their 2006 score of 70 to 90 or better in 2007. What does that do? Makes them an even bigger force in the conference.

As I mentioned before, it seems that if you have an above average offense in the Big 12, you'll make yourself bowl eligible. Let's see if that holds true as we look at Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Oklahoma 148.1
2. Texas A&M 114.9
3. Texas 109.1
4. Colorado 103.2
5. Texas Tech 102.3
6. Kansas State 99.6
7. Missouri 98.0
8. Oklahoma State 94.1
9t. Nebraska 93.1
9t. Iowa State 93.1
11. Kansas 86.3
12. Baylor 83.5

Wow - Oklahoma was head and shoulders above the rest of the conference on the defensive side of the ball. The Aggies were good, but still around 33 percentage points worse. Nebraska's finish at 9th is a little surprising, considering the talent and coaching in Lincoln. Zack Bowman could help them improve in 2007. Texas Tech scoring a 102.3 is also surprising - I was in the camp that believed the Red Raiders thought defense was nap time. Ahhhh, naps.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

Whoawhoaweeewhoa (six points for Borat reference) - Texas scored a 197.8, which means they held their opponents to almost HALF of their rushing totals. Oklahoma scored 161.9, which would have been 1st in most conferences, but Texas just demolished everyone in their path. My God, boys, let them have some mercy yards or something! Texas A&M, Nebraska, and Kansas (surprisingly) scored very well in RDAPP, as well.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Hello again, cuddly Bears. Bears are supposed to be massive creatures who could eat me in a mere moment, can roar with the best of them, but have a knack for honey and picka-nicka baskets. But you, you cuddly Bears, are no more frightening nor intimidating than the Care Bears. Your big uglies are more like big cuddlies. Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Iowa State were all kind of jumbled together in the "we suck, but not bad enough to be the Bears" area.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

Another dominating performance from the Sooners. Again, the Aggies were 2nd, but 29 percentage points off. This is kind of scary, considering Oklahoma returns around 47 starters in their secondary. If the BOOOOOOMERRRRRR SOOOOOONERRRRRS can get a solid pass rush, teams may abandon the forward pass like it was 1923. All in all, there were 7 teams with scores higher than 100.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

Not a terribly Stanford-Baylor-like performance, but bad nonetheless. They scored a 73.4, and Nebraska was 11th at 79.7. Zack Bowman will DEFINITELY help them improve this upcoming season. Texas was was in the bottom three as well, and they had some draft picks in Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin back there. I'm not sure they were good picks, now that I think about it. Can Aqib Talib make everyone better around him at Kansas?

Let's combine all this insanity together to find out who, statistically, was the best team in the Big 12 conference season. Total Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Oklahoma 120.2
2. Texas Tech 112.1
3. Texas A&M 109.3
4. Texas 106.5
5. Oklahoma State 103.1
6. Missouri 102.8
7. Nebraska 101.9
8. Colorado 95.9
9. Kansas State 94.1
10. Kansas 92.3
11. Iowa State 88.0
12. Baylor 87.1

Well, well, well. The top 5 teams were ALL from the Big 12 South. That division is going to be brutal in 2007. Ouch. Kansas State made a bowl? Based on *JUST THIS TOOL* - Kansas State could regress, Kansas could regress, Iowa State will still suck, Tech and A&M should improve, and the right team won the conference.

We still have the ACC and Big East conferences left, plus swing players for the other 5 BCS conferences. Continue to visit, as with each passing day, we're getting closer to football season, and more entries from me. I know you're literally foaming at the mouth.

Swing Players - SEC West

2007-06-19T17:17:00.000-07:00

Here is the 2nd installment for the SEC, this time of the Western Division persuasion.

-WR Tim Hawthorne (rFR), 6'3", 207: Highly touted prospect two seasons ago; with two other mediocre receivers with him, someone has to step up to be Cox's go to guy; Prechae Rodriguez has been a disappointment, and Roderiqus Smith averaged 2 catches per game in 2006; Hawthorne and Smith could be potentially dynamic together, but neither of them have proven much on the field, if anything; Auburn's 173 passing yards per game was their worst total this decade.; must replace draft pick Courtney Taylor.

-OT Lee Ziemba (FR), 6'7", 295: One of the most sought after OL recruits this past winter; with Brandon Cox throwing as a southpaw, Ziemba gets the opportunity to protect his QB's blind side as a true freshman; expect to see Derrick Harvey, Antwain Robinson, and Tyson Jackson to be opposite Ziemba this fall - can a true freshman hold off these 3 draft picks?

-RB Ben Tate (SO), 5'11", 215: Highly touted prospect in 2006, played a bit last season - 54 carries, but 7.3 ypc; will get the bulk of the carries over Brad Lester; Lester is best suited as a backup, and Tate will need to shoulder the load for the entire offense; unlike last season, the Tigers cannot afford a lackluster season from their feature back; has 4 new starters on the line, so he needs to make things happen by himself sometimes.

-QB Matt Flynn (SR), 6'3", 228: Everyone remembers the 40-3 drubbing he helped lead against Miami in the Peach Bowl following the 2005 season; it could have been lightning in a bottle or a sign of the future; the defense is National Title caliber, but the offense still have some questions - mostly Flynn; he went 12-20 for 133 yards, 2 touches and a pick - no clues there, either; should have ample targets at WR, enough time to look around via a stud OL, and a decent running game.

-FS Danny McCray (SO), 6'1", 205: Has the unenviable task of trying to replace top tackler and top 10 pick Laron Landry; the defense is studly everywhere, except his FS spot; he did have 30 tackles and an interception as a true freshman, so he has some experience; he basically needs to play well enough to where there won't be a glaring weakness on the LSU defense.

-RB Keiland Williams (SO), 5'11", 223: Best back on the team last year; really needs to separate himself from Scott and Broussard to provide consistency for the offense - no more musical chairs at HB; if LSU can't create a running game, it might not matter if Flynn plays well - you can stop a one dimensional attack.

-RB Terry Grant (rFR), 5'9", 184: Played the best ball of all the backs in the spring; Jimmy Johns has been disappointing this offseason, and Grant was a pretty highly touted prospect out of high school; will need to be good enough to keep defenses honest - Alabama will have the best WR duo in the conference along with an improving QB; Darby averaged only 4 yards per carry, a disappointment for a usually strong Bama rushing attack.

-CB Eric Gray (SR), 6'2", 188: Unheralded senior who has played over 300 snaps in his career at Alabama; if he doesn't show up, teams will simply throw away from star CB Simeon Castille, negating his talents; returning starting FS Marcus Carter wasn't impressive last season and they'll have a JUCO starter at SS - Gray needs to not only play well, but show senior leadership.

-NT Lorenzo Washington (SO), 6'4", 269: Played in 7 games as a freshman, but not many snaps; as everyone knows, in Saban's (and every) 3-4 defense, you need a hole-clogging, 2-gap defensive tackle - Washington doesn't fit the mold quite yet; 269 pounds is a bit light for an SEC nose tackle - has to reek havoc on the line for LBs Prince Hall, Keith Saunders, and others to make tackles; thrown into the fire.

-OT Jose Valdez (JR), 6'5", 307: Will attempt to replace 3 year starter and 2nd round pick Tony Ugoh; has 2 other new starters on the line with him, but he has the LT spot, the most important; McFadden and Jones are amazing, but they also benefitted from a bulldozing offensive line that loses 3 uglies; with Casey Dick starting at QB, he'll need to do his part to keep passing situations from getting worse; defenses will put 8 or even 9 players in the box, so he'll need to get close to the same push Ugoh was getting - tough task.

-OLB Freddy Fairchild (SO), 6'3", 220: Started 9 games in 2005, but missed all but 2 games in 2006 due to an ACL injury; there isn't much experienced depth behind him; the secondary should be good and the DL should be decent, so the LBs stand out as a glaring hole on the defense; attempting to replace 1st Team All SEC LB Sam Olajubutu.

-QB Casey Dick (JR), 6'2", 216: Will not have the luxuries of last season - defensive coordinators have an entire year to gameplan against McFadden, Jones, and Monk; Dick completed only 49% of his passes, was lucky to have 9 touchdowns; with more pressure on him now than last year, he'll have to make some big throws to win games - I don't think he can.

-QB Michael Henig (JR), 6'1", 190: Awful 2006 - 44% completion percentage, 7 TDs to 9 INTs; getting pushed by highly regarded JUCO Josh Riddell; talented RB Anthony Dixon needs help; has talent at WR; worst team completion percentage this decade; has 4 starters back on the OL, so no excuses.

-DE Avery Hannibal (SR), 6'1", 245: Only 4 sacks in 3 seasons; needs to provide a semi-consistent rush, as Titus Brown will be double teamed all season long; being pushed by highly touted Jazzmen Guy; MSU had a good rush defense last year - with 2 new CB starters, the passing defense will be in trouble; senior leadership is underrated.

-OT Michael Brown (JR), 6'5", 300: MSU allowed 29 sacks last year, but only 6 in the 5 games he started at LT; needs to watch Henig's blind side to give the poor QB some time to throw; was ineligible for first 6 games in 2006, when MSU allowed 22 sacks; line returns four starters so should be much improved.

-QB Brent Schaeffer (SR), 6'2", 205: Coach O's prize catch last winter, but hasn't done anything at Mississippi; completed 47% of his passes; only ran for 100 yards in 12 starts; attitude problem; being beaten out by a walk-on; has to take advantage of 4 returning starters on the OL and a good RB in Green-Ellis; for Ole Miss to have a chance, Schaeffer has to win the starting job back and play like he was once projected to.

-DT Jeremy Garrett (SR), 6'1", 290: Started 3 games in 2006 before injury, and had 3 TFL and 26 tackles - good sign; Ole Miss created only 14 sacks last season; line returns 4 starters; 3 new starters at LB means the DL is of the utmost importance in both creating pressure on the QB and stuffing holes on runs; senior leadership should be helpful to his trenchmates.

-MLB Tony Fein (JR), 6'2", 245: JUCO signee who spent the last year in Iraq with the Army; he should be an emotional, mature leader in a corps of 3 new starters at LB; oh, and he has to replace some guy named Patrick Willis; the DL and DBs should be good to great, so the LBs need to get good, quickly.

So, where is Brandon Cox for Auburn? I don't think he's a swing player. He played mediocre in 2006 and Auburn won 11 games. He was good in 2005, and they won 9. There are certainly other players who could make these lists, so go ahead and leave some comments on guys who you think could change the SEC West race.

Terry Hoeppner Passed Away

2007-06-19T07:01:00.000-07:00

The Associated Press is reporting that Indiana head coach Terry Hoeppner passed away this morning of complications from a brain tumor. Hoeppner was away from the team for spring practice, but had hoped to make it back to them at some point. This is extremely heartbreaking news, as Hoeppner had been fighting this for 18 months. From the entire college football community, we'll be praying for the Hoeppner family and the Indiana football program.

Swing Players: SEC East

2007-06-17T19:25:00.000-07:00

This series is something I literally just thought of. We all know what swing games are - games on the schedule that are "iffy" for the team to win, and will decide the fate of the season. We also all know the impact players from each conference - it's not hard to make a list that includes Darren McFadden, John David Booty, Desean Jackson, Brian Brohm, and so forth. Why shouldn't we "care" about the impacts? Because these players will almost 100% likely be constants for their teams. We already know they're going to be good. Every team has a few players who have raw talent but are one of the following: young, underachieving, or coming off an injury. I'll outline 3 players from each team that will tip the scales for the season.

- DT Demonte Bolden (JR), 6'6", 290: Extremely highly-rated out of high school, had 4 TFL last season; UT's run defense was awful after Justin Harrell went down, and Bolden will need to live up to his hype for the line to get better. Bolden is in the mold of former stud linemen at UT.

-WR Kenny O'Neal (JR), 6'0", 195: JUCO signee from California; played at FSU as a true freshman and gained over 600 all purpose yards as a true freshmen there; one signee from a highly touted 2007 receiver class; his experience makes him a swing player for UT, he'll need to try to replace Robert Meachem; this author thinks he'll have a real shot at 1,000+ yards.

-CB Eric Berry (FR), 5'11", 195: The #1 high school cornerback; already expected to start this fall for Tennessee; UT lost 3 starters from an average secondary, and will possibly rely on 3 players from the 2007 class to start (Berry, McKenzie, Willingham); with Hefney locking down a safety spot, UT needs a lockdown corner more than they need McKenzie at safety; if Berry plays even plays to 80% of his potential as a freshman, UT will be fine in the back.

-MLB Brandon Spikes (SO), 6'3", 241: Highly rated prospect a year ago; played in 9 games last season as a true freshman, so there is experience; has the big Brandon Siler shoes to fill, and with 9 new starters on defense, he'll be one of many swing players (but we had to limit this thing to 3 per team); will face strong running games in 2007 from Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina, so he'll need to lead that new corps of linebackers.

-DT Javier Estopinan (JR), 6'1", 270: Estopinan and fellow DT Clint McMillian are both undersized and have huge shoes to fill; Estopinan actually started 2 games last season before an injury, so he has some experience as well; with 3 new starters on the line and 3 new starting LBs, he'll need to clog some gaps up front - if not, Florida will get pushed around early in the SEC season.

-FS Kyle Jackson (SR), 6'1", 201: Jackson, a new starter, but a senior, will need to lead by example for this young defense; learned behind Reggie Nelson; was highly regarded coming out of high school; great size; started 12 games in 2004 and 2005 combined; if he isn't ready to lead the defense, they will struggle to find an identity.

-WR Mohamed Massaquoi (JR), 6'2", 198: This could really be Massaquoi or Sean Bailey, as UGA's receivers have underperformed for years, it seems; highly touted recruit, hasn't lived up; chronic case of the dropsies, possibly no vaccine; 4 TDs in 2 seasons; will need to provide consistency for a young QB; remember, Robert Meachem had a similiar two year stint before his breakout JR year.

-OLB Darius Dewberry (SO), 6'3", 230: Could go to JR WLB Ellerbe; replacing a solid contributor; highly rated prospect; needs to be a beast in run support, or UGA is in a heap of trouble; is the only highly rated LB in the 2 deep at LB

-QB Matthew Stafford (SO), 6'3", 237: Showed signed at the end of the season, but you can't forget the awful stretch he had; with only 2 returning starters from the worst UGA line in 3 seasons, Stafford will have to beat some teams with his arm, is he ready?; he is now THE man in Athens, no excuses; first time he's played in Tuscaloosa and Knoxville.

-WR Larry Freeman (JR), 6'1", 209: JUCO signee in for spring practice, thus, expected to be ready; has the fun task of trying to replace Sidney Rice (two time 1,000 yard receiver); without a #2 WR, defenses will key in on the emerging Kenny McKinley; only needs to provide around 750-800 yards to keep the passing game effective; due to only 2 returning starters on the OL, Mitchell won't have all the time in the world to throw - Freeman will need to be trusted.

-OG James Thompson (SR), 6'3", 320: Needs to step up after 3 years of seeing slight glimpes of action; the 2006 rushing game was the best in 5 seasons, but loses 3 starters; if Thompson doesn't play well, he could be replaced by a DL from 2006; has to bring the nasty attitude to help spring Cory Boyd.

-OG Garrett Anderson (SO), 6'4", 300: Same boat as Thompson; 4 starts in 2006, as well as playing in all 13 games - will be counted on to make the natural progression in his 2nd season; like Thompson, needs to provide time for Mitchell and holes for Boyd; Carolina has the defense to win the East, but everything relies on the OL.

-OT Josh Winchell (OT), 6'3", 305: JUCO signee expected to start from day 1; will have two scrimmages before the big game against Louisville; Kentucky had their worst running game in over 5 years, at least, even with star Rafael Little in the backfield.

-OG Jess Beets (OG), 6'2", 277: Another JUCO signedd slated to start in September; seems a bit undersized on paper; same story as Winchell - must help improve a wretched OL; Kentucky, even with a mobile QB like Woodson, allowed 39 sacks last season; could get bulldozed by premier SEC tackles.

-DT Corey Peters (SO), 6'3", 290: Showed some promise last season in limited action; will need to help clog holes with fellow tackle Myron Pryor; UK allowed 5 ypc last season and had the worst rush defense in the conference.

-WR George Smith (JR), 6'3", 195: Earl Bennett is no longer the best kept secret in the country, so Smith will need to step up to take some attention; Nickson should improve mentally going into his JR season, so he needs more than 1 consistent option; 4.4 speed; 44 catches in 2 seasons, needs to have that many or more in 2007.

-OT Brian Stamper (SR), 6'5", 295: He's not on this list for any other reason than that he's returning from an injury; before he went down, Vandy ran for 240 yards against a great Arkansas front; after his injury, they struggled against Mississippi and Tennessee, two below average rush defenses; also allowed 10 of their 19 sacks in a 4 game stretch without Stamper; with him, they start 5 seniors and could end up special, the best in recent memory.

-QB Chris Nickson (JR), 6'2", 210: Had a decent season, but has to progress; 15 TDs need to grow, 13 INTs need to drop; 20% of his passing yards came in their game against Kentucky (446 of 2085); needs to take heat off capable RB Jackson-Garrison.

For some of these teams, you could mention an entire 2-deep of guys who could be swing players. Every team has holes, but the players listed above are probably the most important in deciding the fate for their teams in 2007.

Saban is Finally Official

2007-06-15T09:31:00.000-07:00

The Tuscaloosa News has reported that Nick Saban's contract is finalized, official, and hilarious. Well, I added the last adjective, but he's finally the official head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide football program. He was working pro bono before, which is so anti-Saban. It was never a worry that he wouldn't sign, and thus, not become the head coach. But I bet Tide fans are breathing a small, secretive sigh of relief at work today. It's like having your girlfriend take a pregnancy test, even though you've never bumped uglies. You still have some relief.

Some highlights from the news story about the contract:

"The eight-year contract guarantees Saban $32 million unless he quits or is fired for cause."

Let's see here. The University of Alabama likes to fire head football coaches. Nick Saban likes to quit. Alabama + Saban = 90% chance of a firing or resignation. Silly clauses.

"As for endorsements of companies that sponsor Crimson Tide athletics, 'Saban shall not be required to personally endorse or promote in a commercial manner the use or purchase of any product or service,' according to the contract."

Makes sense, because Saban doesn't have time for this shit.

"'I've only done two in my career, one at Michigan State and one at LSU' Saban said."

And he didn't have time for that shit then, either. He doesn't have time for any kind of shit. He's shitless, if you will. He signed a contract to make a boatload of money and to be devoid of shit in his life. Then again, living in Tuscaloosa ... well, nevermind.

Good for Alabama, good for the fans, good for Nick Saban. I just doubt Alabama will need all $32 million they've signed on for.

APP Breakdown: The Big Ten (Eleven)

2007-06-06T13:04:00.001-07:00

I guess I should really speed this up so I can get to the conference projections before it's too late. Preseason magazines are already on the shelves at your local Barnes and Noble, Hastings, Piggly Wiggly, and Jimmy John's Nudie and Football Mags Store. I was hoping for some surprises in the Big 10 with this breakdown, and there were a few, but as for the top offenses and defenses, nothing is all that different from the yardage standings. Regardless, Illinois should be excited for their potential improvement in 2007.

Without further ado, here is the Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TOAPP):

1. Ohio State 109.1
2. Iowa 107.7
3. Minnesota 106.4
4. Wisconsin 106.1
5. Purdue 105.8
6. Indiana 102.9
7. Michigan 98.9
8. Illinois 95.1
9. Northwestern 93.8
10. Penn State 91.3
11. Michigan State 82.8

The biggest surprise probably isn't that Iowa was #2 or Michigan State was #11, but that there wasn't a big gap from 1 through 10. From Penn State up to Ohio State, there was only an 18 percentage point difference. In the other 5 major conferences, the gaps are much, much larger. It seems that having a good offense doesn't necessarily mean you'll be competitive in the Big 10, even though the Buckeyes did win the conference. Oh, and since I only mentioned it earlier - IOWA AT NUMBER TWO?! Drew Tate was average, but the Hawkeyes had a better pass offense than rush offense. Wide receivers Andy Brodell and Dominique Douglas return for 2007 with a better QB in Jake Christensen. And don't forgot the return of RB Albert Young. Iowa could be the #1 offense in the conference this season.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

I would've guessed Michigan or Wisconsin, honestly, but this makes sense. The funny thing is, Ohio State had a better B10 rushing game than passing game. Then again, could it have been because Troy Smith and the boys put up huge numbers early in games, then ran their two studs to get the game done with? Probably. But they scored a 140.0, which is damn good in any conference. The loss of Antonio Pittman will hurt, but Chris Wells averaged more yards per carry. He'll have to shoulder the load in 2007.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

Michigan State was actually 37 percentage points worse than the 10th worst rushing attack, Penn State. The Spartans scored a 47.2, which is almost Stanford bad (43.3). Javon Ringer actually played quite well, but missed most of 5 games and only got around 14 carries per game anyway. When you have a back who has averaged over 6 yards a carry in 2 seasons, you need to give him the ball. Without Stanton, they'll have to. Maybe the coaches *were* screwing it up.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

Not really a surprise with this one. Purdue always seems to sling it around very well. They were only 2% better than Minnesota, though, which is weird. The Gophers typically run very well and Amir Pinnix wasn't a slouch. Brian Cupito is gone now, so don't expect another 2 spot for Minnesota. Purdue, however, returns a small army on offense, including all of their skill positions. They should have a larger victory in POAPP post-07.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

In memory of the mascot Chief Iliniwek, we'll use this logo. Illinois and Juice Williams couldn't throw the damn ball. This was actually the only area where Illinois didn't excel. Original starter Tim Brasic was God awful, so Juice and the Illini are in better shape because of it. Experience is essential - just ask women. The nightmare had to be over after Juice and the Gang threw for a whopping 65 yards against Northwestern. Not Ohio State or Michigan ... Northwestern. It should only get better.

Now for the other side of the ball, Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage (TDAPP):

1. Wisconsin 133.7
2. Michigan 132.2
3. Ohio State 131.9
4. Penn State 115.9
5. Illinois 113.5
6. Iowa 92.7
7. Michigan State 91.5
8. Northwestern 87.9
9. Purdue 83.4
10. Indiana 83.0
11. Minnesota 79.7

Two things stick out: 1. If you want to compete for a Big 10 Title, play some damn defense, and 2. Illinois is high again. I'm telling you right now, Illinois is going to a bowl game in 2007. They might end up 7-5 or 6-6, playing in a pre-Thanksgiving Day Bowl, but from 2-10 to 6-6 is a good turnaround. Zook is the B10's Jeff Tedford. Take a crummy team and get them to respectability, but never elite. I expect that kind of growth from them. Breaking news: Purdue doesn't play defense ....... still.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

This wasn't even close. The Wolverines scored the best BCS conference RDAPP, with a 264.8! That's over 100 percentage points better than Ohio State (164.6), who in any other year, would have had a guaranteed 1st place RDAPP. 264.8?! Are you freaking serious? The 8 B10 opponents that Michigan played averaged almost 1,078 yards in B10 play. Michigan held them to 407. 407 yards in 8 games, or 50 yards per game. That's amazing. Of course, there's no chance in hell they do it again in 2007.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Yuck. Purdue was 22 percentage points behind Indiana. I guess Anthony Spencer was only a pass rush specialist, because he did not help in the trenches. The Boilermakers scored a 59.3, which is not quite Stanford bad, but awful nonetheless. Their pass defense was solid, so if they can somehow clog the run games of their opponents, they could begin to legitimately challenge for the conference's top spot.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

Wisconsin was a good defensive football team in 2006, period. Their RDAPP was 4th in the conference, behind two amazing scores from Michigan and Ohio State. Their PDAPP is 139.8, 22 percentage points ahead of Ohio State. They held the 2nd best passing offense, Minnesota, to under 100 yards. The scary part is that they return a boatload of starters from that defense. If Wisconsin can get Donovan ready, they could take the conference and make a run at the BCS Title Game. Maybe.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

Ahha! So, you can toss it around, then you give it to the other team, and they toss it around. It's like backyard football, but without the sweaty t-shirts, fat slobs, and 5 Mississippi rush counts. The Texas Tech game is the perfect game to define the season for the Gophers. They were bad (78.5), but not awful. Still, 9 of the 11 teams in the conference scored 92 and above, so maybe 78.5 is farther back than I originally thought.

Okay, as in every APP Breakdown, you start to get tired, overloaded, etc. The last part, though, is the most important part. Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage, where we find out who was the best performing team in the Big 10. Where does your team rank?

1. Ohio State 120.5
2. Wisconsin 119.9
3. Michigan 115.6
4. Illinois 104.3
5. Penn State 103.6
6. Iowa 100.2
7. Purdue 94.6
8. Minnesota 93.1
9. Indiana 93.0
10. Northwestern 90.9
11. Michigan State 87.2

Movers and shakers for 2007? Illinois and Iowa are the two I'd watch for, based on CAPP alone. Of course, you have to take into consideration the teams' CGVRs, TO ratio, losses to graduation, etc. Watch for those two clubs, though. Purdue might take a small step back; Minnesota, as well.

I hope to have the ACC or Big 12 up by Tuesday or Wednesday, maybe sooner. Comments make me happy.

APP Breakdown: The Pac 10

2007-05-25T11:47:00.000-07:00

APP, or Adjusted Performance Percentage, is a statistic that I created this offseason that expresses a team's conference performance with regards to their conference schedule. If you look at just the straight raw data from conference games, you can rank the offenses, defenses, etc., but it doesn't take into account what kind of competition they faced. With a conference like the Pac 10 and the Big East, while every team plays each other, round robin style, the rankings do change somewhat in APP. For the SEC APP Breakdown, visit my other blog, The Power T. The way to read these numbers is easy. If a team has a 105.4 ROAPP (Rush Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage), it means they performed 5.4% better in rush offense than what the defenses they faced allowed. Or 5.4% better than average.

First, let's have a look at the Total Offense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. Oregon 129.1
2. California 119.9
3. Washington State 114.4
4. USC 110.8
5. Oregon State 104.3
6. Arizona State 100.7
7. Washington 92.2
8. UCLA 92.1
9. Arizona 75.7
10. Stanford 60.4

Poor Stanford. They performed almost 40% lower than they should have, and this was with an experienced, senior QB in Trent Edwards who was drafted! The Pac 10 might not be as offensively explosive as the rest of the nation thinks. Only half of the teams performed well offensively, even though we all think of the Pac 10 as some sort of offensive juggernaut of a conference. Washington State at #3 surprises me a bit, as well.

Best Rush Offense (Best ROAPP):

I guess I was a little surprised that Cal didn't take the #1 ROAPP spot with 1st round draft pick Marshawn Lynch and capable back-up Justin Forsett. It wasn't just Jonathan Stewart that helped provide such a healthy rush attack, either. QB Dennis Dixon provided a running threat on every snap, and back-up tailback Jeremiah Johnson averaged more yards per carry than Stewart! Oregon's top 2 backs only carried the ball 286 times over the course of 13 games. Compare that to 342 for Cal, and you might be able to find out why Oregon didn't win more games. I fully expect Oregon to run the ball more in 2007, because if their three-headed attack gets more touches, Oregon will win more ballgames. With a 164.3 ROAPP, they were 26% better than the closest competition, Arizona State.

Worst Rush Offense (Worst ROAPP):

Poor, poor Stanford. The scored a 43.3 for their ROAPP. That means they were around 57% worse than they should have been. That's freaking awful! Their top 2 backs, Anthony Kimble and Toby Gerhart combined for 2 touchdowns on the season - TWO! That's pathetically bad. Jim Harbaugh has his work cut out for him.

Best Pass Offense (Best POAPP):

I was shocked to see this. It really wasn't all that close, either. The Cougars were 11.4% better than the 2nd place pass offense, USC. State scored 127.6, so is the Pac 10 really a pass happy conference? Again, only half of the teams had better than average passing attacks. WR Jason Hill is gone, but he was actually only 3rd in receptions in 2006. Brandon Gibson and Michael Bumpus return with over 1200 yards receiving from last season, so State should be able to continue to play well in the air.

Worst Pass Offense (Worst POAPP):

For Christ's sake, Stanford! You had a freaking draft pick at quarterback and you couldn't do better than this? 69.6%. 30% worse than being average. You suck, terribly. Jim Mora was talking about you back in the day. "We couldn't do diddly-poo offensively. We couldn't make a first down. We couldn't run the ball, we didn't try to run the ball. We couldn't complete a pass. We sucked." Kudos to you Jim Mora, for your precognition abilities.

We've seen the offensive breakdowns for APP. Here is Total Defense Adjusted Performance Percentage:

1. USC 113.1
2. Arizona State 109.3
3. Oregon 107.7
4. UCLA 106.7
5. Arizona 104.9
6. Oregon State 103.5
7. Stanford 94.9
8. Washington State 91.1
9. Washington 88.5
10. California 88.4

The biggest surprise has to be Arizona State at #2. The Sun Devils have never been known for defense, and they did pretty well for themselves. Oregon at #3 gives me the same feeling. I'm also shocked to see Cal at #10. They had 3 highly regarded seniors who were drafted on that squad - Mebane, Hughes, and Bishop, yet they finish a hair behind Washington. Some Cal fans will be quick to point out that a portion of the yards against Cal were garbage yards. While that might be true, Cal's games weren't the only games with garbage yard. APP is not perfect, and I openly admit that. However, your defense in the Pac 10 stunk. Eat my shorts.

Best Rush Defense (Best RDAPP):

USC had a hell of a defensive line in 2006, and I can almost guarantee you that the 2007 USC line will do as much damage as the 2006 Florida Gator line. The front 7 for USC probably has 2-3 1st and 2nd round picks: DT Sedrick Ellis, DE Lawrence Jackson, and LB Keith Rivers are all in the top 5 at their positions. Add in very capable starters in Brian Cushing and Ray Maualuga and you've got a killer Trojan curtain. Pac 10 running backs are very comparable to sperm, apparently. Yuck.

Worst Rush Defense (Worst RDAPP):

Oh.my.God. Stanford? Again? I knew they were bad, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Cardinal fans - your team was the worst in the Pac 10 in 3 of 4 important areas. As Jim Mora said earlier, you can't run the ball, and you can't stop the run. If games are won in the trenches, then we should be expecting a medical HVAC unit pronto (is that even right?). Stanford also lost their best defensive player to the draft. Poor Harbaugh.

Best Pass Defense (Best PDAPP):

Another little surprise here. I thought maybe USC or Arizona, but they didn't even crack the top 3. The Ducks didn't lose anyone to the draft from the pass defense, either. Jackie Bates could be poised for a breakout year at corner. The Ducks are only 1 run stuffing NT away from having the best defense in the Pac 10. I bet they miss Haloti Ngata.

Worst Pass Defense (Worst PDAPP):

What what what? Cal fans love Daymeion Hughes (except when they have to type his ridiculously spelled first name), but their secondary was awful. Tim Mixon going down nano-seconds before the Tennessee game didn't help, either. He wouldn't have made the pass defense worlds better, but he could have provided study time for Syd'Quan Thompson, but instead, SQT was thrown to the wolves. Maybe it was safety play from uninspiring Decoud and Hampton, but something wasn't working. And before you call "garbage yards," these games are 40 minutes long. If I wanted to, I could say Tennessee beat Cal 35-0, but I don't. It was 35-18, and Cal's Pac 10 pass defense was porous.

At the end of this insane amount of information, I end with the most important aspect of this breakdown, Complete Adjusted Performance Percentage (CAPP). I take each team's TOAPP and TDAPP and average them out. This tells us the statistically best team from the prior season, and shows us which teams over and underperformed.

1. Oregon 118.2
2. USC 112.0
3. Arizona State 105.0
4. California 104.2
5. Oregon State 103.9
6. Washington State 102.8
7. UCLA 99.4
8. Washington 90.4
9. Arizona 90.3
10. Stanford 77.7

Bite your tongue. This is all about performance. Wins and losses are achievement, and for us as fans, achievement is all that matters. 100% of teams who score more points - win. I get that. However, I like to see how teams performed on the field. Sometimes you can find things that will help you sound like a genius to your friends before the season starts. For instance, as we get closer to September, I'll call for Oregon and Arizona State to be much improved in 2007 while I might call for Washington to drop off big time. Are there other factors involved in predicting the next season? Sure - Close Game Variance Ratio (CGVR), draft losses, and returning starters are all important, too. As we get closer to the season, I will create tables for every conference outlining these 4 aspects, and we'll find out who you can expect to improve and who you can expect to decline. From the CAPP standpoint, the Ducks and the Sun Devils should make some huge Pac 10 noise.

Frank Broyles Wins an Award?!

2007-05-09T09:20:00.000-07:00

The Associated Press is reporting that Arkansas lame duck Athletic Director Frank Broyles will be the recipient of the NACDA-NIT Athletic Directors Award. Frank Broyles. At Arkansas. Does not compute.

Seriously, Frank Broyles? Sure, he's retiring, but if retirement is merit enough for such a prestigious award, then why didn't my grandfather win Coach of the Year in 2001? Of course, my grandfather didn't coach football, but the analogy is pretty accurate. I mean, c'mon! Frank Broyles getting an award for Athletic Director achievement is like Ed Orgeron winning an award for achievement in eloquence.

In other news, some other award winners were announced today:

NCAA Loyalty Award - Nick Saban

NCAA Normal Human Being Award - Mike Leach

NCAA Achievement in Physical Fitness Award - Mark Mangino

NCAA Accurate Analysis Award - Brent Musburger

NCAA Good Samaritan Award - Florida Gators

NCAA Achievement in Facility Excellence Award - Hawaii Warriors

NCAA Clean Program Award - (tie) USC Trojans and Oklahoma Sooners

Seriously, I could probably do this all day.

Welcome

2007-05-08T15:04:00.000-07:00

A spin off already? No, not really. I'm the blogger who's responsible for The Power T, a Tennessee-centered blog that covers football and basketball for, you guessed it, Tennessee. However, I felt like it was too confining in terms of content and subjects, so, I have started this blog to showcase my analysis, thoughts, theories, responses, etc. for all of college football. I'm your super fanatic college football junkie. And this blog will revolve around all of Division 1-A football, year round, with enough information and analysis to make your head explode. Join me for the ride.